A broad analysis of short-term overreactions in the market for cryptocurrencies

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze market inefficiencies in the market for cryptocurrencies by providing a comprehensive analysis of short-term (over)reactions that follow significant price changes of such currencies.Design/methodology/approachThis study identifies and analyzes overreactions and mispricing in markets for cryptocurrencies by applying a broad set of thresholds that depend on market-specific dynamics and volatilities. This study also analyzes the returns on days following abnormal returns and identifies significant differences from normal returns using the t-test and the Mann–Whitney U-test. The researchers further complement the literature by using end-of-the-day returns in addition to high-low returns. Additionally, this study considers a broad sample of 50 cryptocurrencies for an expanded time span (2015–2020) that includes the big currencies as well as smaller currencies.FindingsFindings detect the existence of overreactions and, thus, market inefficiencies in crypto markets. The findings for different methodological approaches are similar, which underpins the robustness of the findings. By considering a broad sample that includes small and big currencies, we can show the existence of a market size effect. By considering a broad set of thresholds, the authors further found evidence for a magnitude effect, which means that higher initial abnormal returns are related to higher inefficiencies.Practical implicationsThis paper has practical implications. Market inefficiencies were detected, which can be used in practical trading to obtain excess returns. In fact, methodological approach of this study and its results can be used to derive a strategy for trading in cryptocurrencies that can be easily implemented. Based on the study’s findings, the authors can expect positive access returns by applying this trading strategy.Originality/valueThe authors complement the literature on market inefficiencies and mispricing in crypto markets by analyzing price patterns after initial abnormal returns. Researchers contribute by applying different methodological approaches in addition to the approaches used so far, by considering a set of different thresholds and by applying a much broader data set that enables the study to analyze additional aspects.

Financial statement analysis: a review and current issues

PurposeThe literature on financial statement analysis attempts to improve fundamental analysis and to identify market inefficiencies with respect to financial statement information.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the author reviews the extant research on financial statement analysis.FindingsThe author then provides some preliminary evidence using Chinese data and offer suggestions for future research, with a focus on utilising unique features of the Chinese business environment as motivation.Originality/valueThe author notes that there has been no work that the author could locate specifically on Chinese FSA research. The unique business environment in China, relative to the US where the vast majority of this work has been conducted, should motivate any studies, especially given the author documents the robust finding in terms of the mean reversion in profitability.

How market ecology explains market malfunction

Standard approaches to the theory of financial markets are based on equilibrium and efficiency. Here we develop an alternative based on concepts and methods developed by biologists, in which the wealth invested in a financial strategy is like the abundance of a species. We study a toy model of a market consisting of value investors, trend followers, and noise traders. We show that the average returns of strategies are strongly density dependent; that is, they depend on the wealth invested in each strategy at any given time. In the absence of noise, the market would slowly evolve toward an efficient equilibrium, but the statistical uncertainty in profitability (which is calibrated to match real markets) makes this noisy and uncertain. Even in the long term, the market spends extended periods of time away from perfect efficiency. We show how core concepts from ecology, such as the community matrix and food webs, give insight into market behavior. For example, at the efficient equilibrium, all three strategies have a mutualistic relationship, meaning that an increase in the wealth of one increases the returns of the others. The wealth dynamics of the market ecosystem explain how market inefficiencies spontaneously occur and gives insight into the origins of excess price volatility and deviations of prices from fundamental values.

The efficient market hypothesis is usually addressed indirectly: what happens if a direct approach is used instead?

A vast literature on putative market inefficiencies compares the results of an investment strategy which takes advantage of the putative inefficiency against a null hypothesis generated by the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Even if negative, such studies do not provide direct evidence in favor of the EMH. To directly assess a key component of the EMH, namely that stock returns lack memory, we created 30-year portfolios by sampling annual market returns from 1926-2019 with replacement, and then compared the results with the historical record of actual 30-year returns. Although centered on the correct amount, the EMH-based 30-year returns were notably more variable than the historical 30-year returns. One possible explanation is that market returns regress toward their mean in the long term. This demonstrates that while the EMH should be taken seriously, it need not always be taken literally.

Why Do Firms Fail to Engage Diversity? A Behavioral Strategy Perspective

The persistent failure of organizations to engage diversity—to employ a diverse workforce and fully realize its potential—is puzzling, as it creates labor-market inefficiencies and untapped opportunities. Addressing this puzzle from a behavioral strategy as arbitrage perspective, this paper argues that attractive opportunities tend to be protected by strong behavioral and social limits to arbitrage. I outline four limits—cognizing, searching, reconfiguring, and legitimizing (CSRL)—that deter firms from sensing, seizing, integrating, and justifying valuable diversity. The case of Moneyball is used to illustrate how these CSRL limits prevented mispriced human resources from being arbitraged away sooner, with implications for engaging cognitive diversity that go beyond sports. This perspective describes why behavioral failures as arbitrage opportunities can persist and prescribes strategists, as contrarian theorists, a framework for formulating relevant behavioral and social problems to solve in order to search for and exploit these untapped opportunities.

The devil is in the detail. Disclosing the impact of religion on the milk system in Ethiopia

The influence of religion within food systems in developing economies has been understated in scholarly studies. With its different Christian, Islamic, and traditional faiths, Ethiopia offers a promising field for investigating the impact of religion on the milk system, the most important animal protein source in Ethiopian diets. In a first chapter, we investigate how the presence of a religious fasting period influences household milk intake in the country. The second and third chapter explore how milk producers have adapted to the demand seasonality caused by religious fasting practices in two different major milk production areas. In the two final chapters we investigate if and how religious ties facilitate milk transactions. This dissertation concludes that religious fasting practices have a clear impact on milk consumption and production in the country, thereby creating considerable market inefficiencies. Furthermore, we find evidence of market coordination problems along. KEY WORDS: COORDINATION PROBLEMS, DEMAND SEASONALITY, ETHIOPIA, MILK SYSTEM, RELIGION

The Collapse of Barings Bank and Lehman Brothers Holdings INC: An Abridged Version

Bank crisis can mostly be traced to a decrease in the value of bank assets. Banks are vulnerable to a number of risks. This happens in one or a combination of the following incidences; when loans turn bad and cease to perform (credit risk), when there are excess withdrawals over available funds (liquidity risk) and rising interest rates (interest rate risk). Bad credit management, market inefficiencies and operational risk, among a host others can trigger panic withdrawals by depositors with a sense of insecurity emanating from the fear of loss of investment. In fact, the failure of Barings Bank and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc was attributable to varied factors spanning from non-monitoring of employee activities, management’s involvement in dubious accounting practices, unethical business practices by management, over indulging in risky and unsecured derivative trade. To guide against similar bank collapse in the near future, there should be an enhanced communication among international regulators and authorities that exercise oversight responsibilities on the security market. National bankruptcy laws should be invoked to forestall liquidity crisis so as to prevent freezing of margins and positions of solvent customers.