When is a multiple bet better than a single ?

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Nicos Zafiris
Keyword(s):  
Expected Value ◽  
Apparent Paradox ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Essential Stability ◽  
Positive Return ◽  
Better Than

The paper addresses an apparent paradox observed in betting on football scores, drawing on 20-year data from the English 2nd tier division (Championship). While accumulator bets have a lower Net Expected Value than single bets, ‘cross double’ bets on the scores, placed over successive playing rounds, produce distinctly better results and indeed a positive return overall. It is argued that this effect rests on the essential stability of the score frequencies across playing seasons and on the bookmakers’ failure, in setting the odds, to allow for occasional and temporary deviations from long run average frequencies. A betting strategy based on overdue scores occurring with compensating frequencies, and possibly clustered together, can then produce positive returns. Neglect of overdue scores can be expressed formally as a bias augmenting the probability of these and turning the odds in the bettor’s favour. It is shown that, while normally the bettor’s disadvantage is compounded in multiple bets, a compounded advantage results once the odds become better than fair. The paper also discusses certain quasi binomial characteristics of the betting involved and explores possible ways of hedging such bets ‘in running’. 

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a repairable system

1994 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1123-1127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Explicit Expression ◽  
Average Cost ◽  
Replacement Policy ◽  
Repairable System ◽  
Optimal Replacement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Optimal Replacement Policy ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Better Than

In this paper, a repairable system consisting of one unit and a single repairman is studied. Assume that the system after repair is not as good as new. Under this assumption, a bivariate replacement policy (T, N), where T is the working age and N is the number of failures of the system is studied. The problem is to determine the optimal replacement policy (T, N)∗such that the long-run average cost per unit time is minimized. The explicit expression of the long-run average cost per unit time is derived, and the corresponding optimal replacement policy can be determined analytically or numerically. Finally, under some conditions, we show that the policy (T, N)∗ is better than policies N∗ or T∗.

scholarly journals Archie's law – a reappraisal

Solid Earth ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1157-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul W. J. Glover
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Apparent Paradox ◽  
Archie’S Law ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Reservoir Parameter ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Electrical Data ◽  
Extra Parameter ◽  
Better Than

Abstract. When scientists apply Archie's first law they often include an extra parameter a, which was introduced about 10 years after the equation's first publication by Winsauer et al. (1952), and which is sometimes called the “tortuosity” or “lithology” parameter. This parameter is not, however, theoretically justified. Paradoxically, the Winsauer et al. (1952) form of Archie's law often performs better than the original, more theoretically correct version. The difference in the cementation exponent calculated from these two forms of Archie's law is important, and can lead to a misestimation of reserves by at least 20 % for typical reservoir parameter values. We have examined the apparent paradox, and conclude that while the theoretical form of the law is correct, the data that we have been analysing with Archie's law have been in error. There are at least three types of systematic error that are present in most measurements: (i) a porosity error, (ii) a pore fluid salinity error, and (iii) a temperature error. Each of these systematic errors is sufficient to ensure that a non-unity value of the parameter a is required in order to fit the electrical data well. Fortunately, the inclusion of this parameter in the fit has compensated for the presence of the systematic errors in the electrical and porosity data, leading to a value of cementation exponent that is correct. The exceptions are those cementation exponents that have been calculated for individual core plugs. We make a number of recommendations for reducing the systematic errors that contribute to the problem and suggest that the value of the parameter a may now be used as an indication of data quality.

scholarly journals Tenure, Faculty Contracts and Bargaining Conflict

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-70
Author(s):  
Derek Hum
Keyword(s):  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Research Output ◽  
Job Security ◽  
University Administrators ◽  
Government Grants ◽  
Faculty Unions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Academic Employment ◽  
The University ◽  
Better Than

Tenure is sometimes charged as giving faculty lifetime job security, with little accountability and sporadic monitoring of performance. Scholars have traditionally defended tenure as necessary for academic freedom. This paper takes a different approach by examining the academic "employment contract relationship," and explaining how tenure can lead to bargaining conflict. Tenure is costly to the university but extremely valued by the faculty member. The opportunity cost of granting tenure to someone is the lost teaching and research output of younger people who cannot be hired in future. Tenure is necessary because without it, incumbents would never recommend hiring people who might be better than they are, for fear of being replaced. Tenure is also efficient because faculty have better information about incumbents than either university administrators or outside consultants. Tenure is therefore necessary to motivate older faculty to hire the best. With staff budget dollars able to be shifted back or forwards across time periods, tenure secures the truthful revelation of who are the good candidates over all periods, and the university is guaranteed that those who are in the best position to judge (namely, faculty rather than administrators) have every incentive to make the best decisions. It follows, then, that the naive suggestion to get rid of tenure so that older, expensive professors can be fired and replaced with younger, cheaper professors would be disastrous in the long run. A simple model is presented explaining why (a) recent cutbacks in government grants, (b) cost pressures on university budgets, (c) limits to tuition increases, and (d) declining interests in attending a less "excellent" university have all resulted in pressure on tenure. Because there is no previously agreed-to mechanism in place to adjust staff, university administrations and faculty unions are not so much bargaining over an acceptable contract outcome as they are contesting the very rules of the bargaining game. Accordingly, unless tenure is reconsidered, universities may increasingly face bargaining conflict. Tenure could be reformed by making the term of tenure limited but related to rank, and establishing a maximum eligibility period during which a faculty may apply for promotion.

scholarly journals Firm Ownership Characteristics and Long-run Return on Equity Issued: A Case of the Nairobi Securities Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. p131
Author(s):  
Martin K. Odipo ◽  
Tobias Olweny ◽  
Oluoch Oluoch
Keyword(s):  
Big Five ◽  
Institutional Ownership ◽  
State Ownership ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Firm Ownership ◽  
Average Return ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Multi Linear Regression ◽  
Better Than

This investigation looked at the link between firm ownership characteristics and long-run return on firms that issued equity at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) in Kenya. The study covered 12 firms that issued shares in the NSE market from 2006-2008. Ownership characteristics included (state ownership, institutional Ownership, foreign Ownership, big five shareholders, market capitalization, age of the firm and Leverage of the firm) in relation to the average return. The study tested whether each of the firm ownership characteristics influenced long-run performance. Annual return for these companies was based on market return for five years after the firm’s equity shares were issued. The long-run performance was compared with three benchmarks, namely, NSE index, CAPM and Matching firms. Seven hypotheses were developed for the study. Simple-liner and multi-linear regression analyses based on panel data were carried out to relate the extended run return on shares issued. The result of the survey showed that issuing firms performed better than non-issuing firms. These issuing firms also performed better in comparison to CAPM. However, the issuing firms performed worse than NSEI. In conclusion, the long-run performance of equity issued at the NSE does not necessarily underperform relative to non-issuing establishments.

scholarly journals Gambling warning labels: Differing effects of message length and message format

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Warren Stirling Newall ◽  
Lukasz Walasek ◽  
Elliot Andrew Ludvig
Keyword(s):  
Potential Risk ◽  
Court Case ◽  
Warning Labels ◽  
Electronic Gambling Machines ◽  
Message Length ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Electronic Gambling ◽  
Objective Understanding ◽  
Message Format ◽  
Better Than

“Return-to-player” warning labels are used to display the long-run cost of gambling on electronic gambling machines in several jurisdictions. For example, a return-to-player of 90% means that for every $100 bet on average $90 is paid out in prizes. Some previous research suggests that gamblers perceive a lower chance of winning and have a better objective understanding when return-to-player information is instead restated in the “house-edge” format, e.g., “This game keeps 10% of all money bet on average.” Here we test another potential risk communication improvement: making return-to-player messages longer, by clarifying that the information applies only in the statistical long-run. It was suggested that gamblers might understand this message better than the return-to-player at the conclusion of a court case brought against an Australian casino. In this study, Australian participants (N = 603) were presented with either a standard return-to-player message, a longer “return-to-players” message, or a house-edge message. The longer return-to-players message was understood correctly more frequently than the return-to-player message, but the house-edge message was understood best of all. Participants perceived the lowest chance of winning with the longer return-to-players message. The house-edge format appears easiest for gamblers to correctly understand, but longer warning labels might be the best at warning gamblers about the long-run costs of gambling on electronic gambling machines.

An implementation of geometric integration within Matlab

SIMULATION ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 95 (11) ◽  
pp. 1055-1067
Author(s):  
Guillaume Chauvon ◽  
Philippe Saucez ◽  
Alain Vande Wouwer
Keyword(s):  
Kepler Problem ◽  
Size Composition ◽  
Variable Step Size ◽  
Step Size ◽  
System Variable ◽  
Geometric Integrators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Variable Step ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Better Than

Geometric integrators allow preservation of specific geometric properties of the exact flow of differential equation systems, such as energy, phase-space volume, and time-reversal symmetry, and are particularly reliable for long-run integration. In this study, variable step size composition methods and Gauss methods are implemented in Matlab library integrators, and are tested with several representative problems, including the Kepler problem, the outer solar system and a conservative Lotka–Volterra system. Variable step size integrators often perform better than their fixed step size counterparts and the numerical results show excellent long time preservation of the Hamiltonian in these examples.

scholarly journals Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systematically Fooled?

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 583-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Spiegler
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Directed Acyclic Graph ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Acyclic Graph ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Individual Variables

Abstract An agent forms estimates (or forecasts) of individual variables conditional on some observed signal. His estimates are based on fitting a subjective causal model—formalized as a directed acyclic graph, following the “Bayesian networks” literature—to objective long-run data. I show that the agent’s average estimates coincide with the variables’ true expected value (for any underlying objective distribution) if and only if the agent’s graph is perfect—that is, it directly links every pair of variables that it perceives as causes of some third variable. This result identifies neglect of direct correlation between perceived causes as the kind of causal misperception that can generate systematic prediction errors. I demonstrate the relevance of this result for economic applications: speculative trade, manipulation of a firm’s reputation, and a stylized “monetary policy” example in which the inflation-output relation obeys an expectational Phillips Curve.

The Administrative Response to Court Decisions

1969 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sol Rubin
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Positive Reaction ◽  
Positive Response ◽  
Considerable Extent ◽  
The Other ◽  
Court Decisions ◽  
Appellate Courts ◽  
Vital Part ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Better Than

The decisions of the appellate courts are a vital part of the environment in which law enforcement and correction must function. The reactions of administrators in these fields to the decisions are, to a considerable extent, a matter of choice. The choices may be labeled provocative, defensive, or positive. The defensive position looks like the easiest one to take but may, in the long run, pose more difficulties than the positive reaction. The positive response is "right" in that it works better than the other responses toward advancing correctional practice.

scholarly journals O NEGÓCIO DAS ARENAS: PROFISSIONALISMO ESPORTIVO, CULTURA E ENTRETENIMENTO DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v4i2.115

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-48
Author(s):  
José Rubens Camargo Gonçalves da Motta
Keyword(s):  
No Value ◽  
Return On Investment ◽  
Business Plan ◽  
Financial Viability ◽  
Art Galleries ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Positive Return ◽  
Better Than

No matter how elaborate is any study, the point is that if it is not applicable, of little served the entire effort. In this way, the Business Plan of Multipurpose Arenas proposes to demonstrate marketing and financial viability of its concept. In the aspect of business return on investment, it was proved by three indicators that it represents a project with positive return and better than conservative investments. Moreover, the analysis were founded and applied by the theory that had its importance in the definition and validation of the proposed model of multipurpose arenas. As Blake (1985, Image, Leisure Management, pp. 14-15) "sports centers, theaters, art galleries, libraries, museums, are mere installations containing tangible and intangible products that have no value, except what the customers attribute". This is, in fact, the best way to represent what was intended to highlight through this study.

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