scholarly journals Impact of the Economic Stimulus Measures on Lithuanian Real Estate Market under the Conditions of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 459-468
Author(s):  
Vaida Pilinkienė ◽  
Alina Stundziene ◽  
Evaldas Stankevičius ◽  
Andrius Grybauskas
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Substantial Part ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a number of challenges worldwide regarding not only the human health perspective, but also the economic situation. Quarantine, imposed in many countries, forced a substantial part of businesses to close or narrow down their activities, thus leaving corporations and employees without any or with lower income. If national governments had not undertaken any actions to save national economies, the consequences could have been even more devastating. The real estate market is an important part of economy. Instability in the real estate market can cause financial problems, vulnerability of population’s welfare and other negative effects. This research aims to assess the impact of the economic stimulus measures on the real estate market under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lithuania. The research methods include comparative analysis, correlation analysis, stationarity test, regression analysis and the ARDL models. The results indicate that the economic stimulus measures only partially contribute to stabilization of the real estate market in Lithuania. The drop in housing prices was 2.9 percent lower because of the economic stimulus in the second quarter of 2020. Maintenance of household cash and deposits as well as lending to business enterprises are the measures that allow to stabilize the real estate market in the shortest time under the conditions of the economic shock. The other governmental support measures are also important, especially if they are aimed at preserving jobs.

The impact of external factors on housing prices in Lithuania

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alina Stundziene ◽  
Vaida Pilinkienė ◽  
Andrius Grybauskas
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to identify the external factors that have the greatest impact on housing prices in Lithuania. Design/methodology/approach The econometric analysis includes stationarity test, Granger causality test, correlation analysis, linear and non-linear regression modes, threshold regression and autoregressive distributed lag models. The analysis is performed based on 137 external factors that can be grouped into macroeconomic, business, financial, real estate market, labour market indicators and expectations. Findings The research reveals that housing price largely depends on macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product growth and consumer spending. Cash and deposits of households are the most important indicators from the group of financial indicators. The impact of financial, business and labour market indicators on housing price varies depending on the stage of the economic cycle. Practical implications Real estate market experts and policymakers can monitor the changes in external factors that have been identified as key indicators of housing prices. Based on that, they can prepare for the changes in the real estate market better and take the necessary decisions in a timely manner, if necessary. Originality/value This study considerably adds to the existing literature by providing a better understanding of external factors that affect the housing price in Lithuania and let predict the changes in the real estate market. It is beneficial for policymakers as it lets them choose reasonable decisions aiming to stabilize the real estate market.

scholarly journals Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirosław Bełej ◽  
Sławomir Kulesza
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Intrinsic Property ◽  
Small Variation ◽  
Smooth Curve ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Stability

Abstract The paper deals with the description of the issues related to the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of sharp, unexpected changes in the housing prices which have been observed in the last decade in many European countries due to some macroeconomic circumstances. When such perturbations appear, the real estate market is said to be structurally unstable, since even a small variation in the control parameters might result in a large, structural change in the state of the whole system. The essential problem addressed in the paper is the need to define and discriminate between the intervals of stable and unstable real estate market development with special attention paid to the latter. The research aims at modeling hardly explored field of discontinuous changes in the real estate market in order to reveal the bifurcation edge. Assuming that the periods of sudden price changes reflect an intrinsic property of the real estate market, it is shown that the evolution path draws for most of the time a smooth curve onto the stability area of the equilibrium surface, and only briefly penetrates into the instability area to hop to another equilibrium state.

scholarly journals ПОЛІТИКА ЧЕСЬКОГО НАЦІОНАЛЬНОГО БАНКУ ЩОДО РИНКУ НЕРУХОМОСТІ

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-75
Author(s):  
Олександр Володимирович Києвич
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Nowadays, when we still see the impact of COVID not only in the Czech Republic, but all over the world, when the value of money is constantly decreasing due to inflation and negative trends in the economy, people usually try to save their savings where they are confident that they will not lose value. The purpose of the article is to characterize the policy of the Czech National Bank in relation to the real estate market. Research hypothesis. The population of the Czech Republic now perceives housing as a safe haven and protects their savings by buying real estate. That is why, according to practicing economists, the great interest of Czechs in investing in real estate will continue in the coming years. Presentation of the main material. Wealthy people in the Czech Republic are now investing their money in apartments to protect their savings from inflation, which was largely fueled by covid restrictions. Rising inflation and volatility in world currencies is a serious blow to those who keep their savings in cash, so people want to own any asset that has any hope of going up. Originality and practical significance of the research. It has been proven that overheated markets sometimes collapse with dire consequences for a country's economy. And this is the responsibility of the regulators, who must anticipate and prevent such trends in the markets. Conclusions and prospects for further research. The current situation with the pandemic has not affected the real estate market, which is perhaps surprising. The population of the Czech Republic now perceives housing as a safe haven and protects their savings by buying real estate. The main task today of all financial market regulators, not only in the Czech Republic, but all over the world, is and will be the task of preventing a sharp collapse of the formed bubbles, including the real estate market.

scholarly journals Early effects of theCOVID_19 pandemic on the real estate market in Georgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 58-65
Author(s):  
Natia Terterashvili Natia Terterashvili
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Recent Experience ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Crisis Situation ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Early Effects ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the early effects of the COVID_19 pandemic on the Georgian real estate market. There are studies examining the impact of health deterioration and pandemic shocks on housing markets. Based on the analysis of the economic consequences caused by similar events in the past and the tools of state regulation in a crisis situation, parallels are drawn with the modern Covid pandemic. In studying the crisis situation in the real estate market, we also rely on the experience of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, which is most often associated with the current situation. The research is mainly based on the data of the Georgian Public Registry on the real estate market, which is updated by months. The article also discusses the role and importance of government decision-making in the development business, which has helped the real estate market to some extent. Crises are particularly damaging to the construction and real estate sectors, but we also expect that the real estate market will recover rapidly with the lifting of restrictions. This is based on the recent experience of Georgia, in particular, our simultaneous analysis of the results of the first wave of the COVID_19 pandemic. The situation was different during the crisis of 2007-2008, which was accompanied by war with Russia. Then the turn over of the construction sector decreased by 12% per year and it took about three years for the market to fully recover. At the same time, before 2008, the prices in the real estate market were very high, which confirmed the existence of a real estate "bubble". In modern conditions, it is difficult to talk about the existence of a "bubble", because before the pandemic real estate prices were balanced and stable. This fact allows for additional optimism. The paper summarizes the main findings, identifies all the challenges the market are facing and also provides relevant recommendations for market participants. Keywords: COVID_19 pandemic, Real Estate, Crisis, development business, State regulations.

Research on the Impacts of Real Estate on Economic Growth: A Theoretical Model-Based Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 06 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850025
Author(s):  
Xiaoxi ZHANG ◽  
Lu GUO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Pillar Industry ◽  
The Impact

As the pillar industry of China’s economy, the real estate sector has a significant impact on macroeconomic growth. We assume that the first stage of economic actors’ working lives is a low-income one, while their second stage is a high-income one. Then, relying on an Overlapping-Generations Model, we analyze how, via real estate, the behaviors of different income groups affect the macroeconomy. The results show that when the supply of real estate market fluctuates then this has an impact on economic growth, but the extent of the impact depends on the relationship between the real estate and the consumer markets. We also find that when economic actors more greatly prefer their current situations of well-being, no matter whether there takes place or not a new increase in real estate stocks, a negative correlation will exist in the relation between real estate stocks and their prices. Lastly, we come to the conclusion that increases in property taxes can effectively reduce housing prices, but the impact of transaction taxes on housing prices can still not be determined.

scholarly journals Urban Vibrancy: An Emerging Factor that Spatially Influences the Real Estate Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Barreca ◽  
Rocco Curto ◽  
Diana Rolando
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Current Status ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Activity Intensity ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Spatial Autoregressive

Urban vibrancy is defined and measured differently in the literature. Originally, it was described as the number of people in and around streets or neighborhoods. Now, it is commonly associated with activity intensity, the diversity of land-use configurations, and the accessibility of a place. The aim of this paper is to study urban vibrancy, its relationship with neighborhood services, and the real estate market. Firstly, it is used a set of neighborhood service variables, and a Principal Component Analysis is performed in order to create a Neighborhood Services Index (NeSI) that is able to identify the most and least vibrant urban areas of a city. Secondly, the influence of urban vibrancy on the listing prices of existing housing is analyzed by performing spatial analyses. To achieve this, the presence of spatial autocorrelation is investigated and spatial clusters are identified. Therefore, spatial autoregressive models are applied to manage spatial effects and to identify the variables that significantly influence the process of housing price determination. The results confirm that housing prices are spatially autocorrelated and highlight that housing prices and NeSI are statistically associated with each other. The identification of the urban areas characterized by different levels of vibrancy and housing prices can effectively support the revision of the urban development plan and its regulatory act, as well as strategic urban policies and actions. Such data analyses support a deep knowledge of the current status quo, which is necessary to drive important changes to develop more efficient, sustainable, and competitive cities.

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