A pollen diagram from Morwell Swamp provides a record of vegetation and
climate through the Holocene period while the application of a bioclimatic
analysis of the aquatic species Brasenia schreberi to
the occurrence of its pollen in the record allows the first quantitative
reconstruction of early Holocene climate from mainland south-eastern
Australia. The beginning of the Holocene, c. 10000 years before present (BP),
was marked by the establishment of permanent water within the basin and an
expansion of forest under conditions of increasing precipitation and probably
also temperature. The early Holocene forests were dominated by Casuarinaceae,
a situation typical of lowland south-eastern Australia. The presence of
Brasenia schreberi Gmel., a species now restricted to
lower latitudes, suggests that, by c. 9000 years BP, mean annual temperatures
had risen to slighly above today’s values, while summer temperatures may
have been at least 1.3˚C higher. These results are surprising considering
that most previous evidence has suggested that optimal climatic conditions
were achieved between about 7000 and 5000 years ago, and that radiation levels
are predicted, from Milankovitch forcing, to have been lower than today at
this time in the Southern Hemisphere. It is clearly necessary to be somewhat
cautious about the wholescale acceptance of the quantitative values at this
stage, although they are not contradicted by other palynological data.
Subsequent regional increases in the wetter forest elements,
Nothofagus and Pomaderris,
indicate a middle Holocene peak in precipitation, although it is estimated,
from a bioclimatic analysis of Nothofagus, that summer
temperatures had become substantially lower than today. This lowering may have
been due to a local or regional increase in cloud cover. There is evidence for
minor variation in vegetation and climate within the late Holocene, which is
consistent with evidence from elsewhere within the region.