Mass migration to urban areas constitutes the basic direct factor of the
decline in rural population of Yugoslavia in the second half of the 20th
century. Due to the characteristic migration patterns by age and sex, they
have had a substantial impact on the change in age structure of rural
population towards rapid demographic ageing. By inducing decline in
fertility and an increase in mortality, the newly formed age structure is
increasingly becoming one of the basic factors to further decline in
population, or even the major factor to rural depopulation in the majority
of regions. The paper analyzes changes in age structure of rural population
in the FR of Yugoslavia and across its republics and provinces during the
period from 1961 to 1991. The conditions prevailing during the last census
(1991) are particularly highlighted. The author points to distinct
differences in ageing of urban versus rural populations, and considerable
regional differences at the achieved level of demographic age. Based on the
main demographic age indicators (the share of five-year and larger age
groups, average age, ageing index and movement in major age-specific
contingents), the author concludes that the process of population ageing had
taken place in both rural and urban populations, but was more intensive in
villages (higher share of the aged, higher index of ageing and higher
average age) during the period under review. The author points to distinct
ageing of rural population in all republics and provinces. It was most
prominent in central Serbia and Vojvodina, while being quite slow in Kosovo
and Metohia and recorded mainly in between the last two censuses
(1981-1991). Likewise, Kosovo and Metohia constitute the only major region
of Yugoslavia in which rural population in 1991 is still demographically
younger than the population in urban settlements. Rural versus urban
population ageing was much more intensive in other major regions of the
country, both from the base and from the apex of the age pyramid. In view of
the minimal differences in fertility and mortality levels by type of
settlement (particularly in central Serbia and Vojvodina), the author argues
that the inherited age structure constitutes the main cause of rapid
acceleration in rural population ageing in low fertility regions.
Low Fertility and Population Ageing: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Options
