scholarly journals Population ageing trends in Serbia from the beginning of the 21st century and prospects until 2061: Regional aspect

2014 ◽  
pp. 687-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Goran Penev
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
Regional Aspect ◽  
Intercensal Period ◽  
Key Indicators

The results of the 2011 Census confirm that Serbia is still among countries with the oldest population in Europe. Persons aged 65+ out?numbered those under the age of 15 by 20% (17.4% versus 14.4%), and the median age was 42.7 years. Population ageing has continued, but it was slower in the intercensal period of 2002-2011 than during the 1980s and 1990s. Population ageing in Serbia has not only continued but is also widespread at all territorial levels. According to the 2011 Census, in all four statistical regions (NUTS 2), people aged 65 or older outnumbered those under the age of 15 and, in comparison to 2002, regional differences in the key indicators of population ageing increased. Heterogeneity is more present at lower territorial levels (cities/municipalities) with the least favourable age structure which will be pointed out. This paper also explores trends of components of population dynamics in the intercensal period 2002-2011, as well as causal relationship with the change of the age structure. Current demographic trends (low fertility, negative natural increase, net emigration) and very old age structure severely limit the spectrum of future demographic changes both in the medium and especially in the short term. The situation is particularly influenced by the entrance of the large baby boom generation in the elderly ages. Explorations of future population trends are conducted based on the author?s own demographic projections for Serbia until 2061 (revision 2014).

Aging of rural population in Yugoslavia

Stanovnistvo ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 37 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 73-92
Author(s):  
Jelena Antonovic
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Mass Migration ◽  
Rural And Urban

Mass migration to urban areas constitutes the basic direct factor of the decline in rural population of Yugoslavia in the second half of the 20th century. Due to the characteristic migration patterns by age and sex, they have had a substantial impact on the change in age structure of rural population towards rapid demographic ageing. By inducing decline in fertility and an increase in mortality, the newly formed age structure is increasingly becoming one of the basic factors to further decline in population, or even the major factor to rural depopulation in the majority of regions. The paper analyzes changes in age structure of rural population in the FR of Yugoslavia and across its republics and provinces during the period from 1961 to 1991. The conditions prevailing during the last census (1991) are particularly highlighted. The author points to distinct differences in ageing of urban versus rural populations, and considerable regional differences at the achieved level of demographic age. Based on the main demographic age indicators (the share of five-year and larger age groups, average age, ageing index and movement in major age-specific contingents), the author concludes that the process of population ageing had taken place in both rural and urban populations, but was more intensive in villages (higher share of the aged, higher index of ageing and higher average age) during the period under review. The author points to distinct ageing of rural population in all republics and provinces. It was most prominent in central Serbia and Vojvodina, while being quite slow in Kosovo and Metohia and recorded mainly in between the last two censuses (1981-1991). Likewise, Kosovo and Metohia constitute the only major region of Yugoslavia in which rural population in 1991 is still demographically younger than the population in urban settlements. Rural versus urban population ageing was much more intensive in other major regions of the country, both from the base and from the apex of the age pyramid. In view of the minimal differences in fertility and mortality levels by type of settlement (particularly in central Serbia and Vojvodina), the author argues that the inherited age structure constitutes the main cause of rapid acceleration in rural population ageing in low fertility regions.

scholarly journals Brazil is getting older: demographic changes and epidemiological challenges

1991 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 476-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato P. Veras
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Third World ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Epidemiological Transition ◽  
Structure Population ◽  
The Social

Population ageing is currently a phenomenon not only in developed countries but also in third world countries. In this paper the features of a population's ageing and the process of epidemiological transition are discussed along with the worldwide changes in age-structure. Population statistics in Brazil and the characteristics of the elderly population are presented and analysed in the light of recent changes. The Brazilian elderly population is also discussed, particularly the issues relating to the social cost of the aged population, its urban and rural distribution, the elderly by sex, marital status and level of schooling, and emphasis is given to the imbalance of the sexes and the consequences of it for women.

scholarly journals Estymacja prawdopodobieństw przejścia między stanami zdrowia osóbw wieku 50 lat i więcej w Polsce w modelu wielostanowym

2015 ◽  
pp. 25-37
Author(s):  
Wojciech Łątkowski
Keyword(s):  
Baby Boom ◽  
Elderly Care ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Status Change ◽  
Health Status Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Specific Health

Poland will experience advanced population ageing driven by improvements in longevity, low fertility and retirement of baby boom cohorts. Given the higher morbidity prevalence observed at older ages, the demand for the elderly care is expected to increase. The study focuses on the dynamics of health of people aged 50 and over in Poland. We want to verify how the risks of the health status change are shaped over age and what the impact of sex is. The empirical analysis provides a description of a non-parametric multi-state model for transitions in health. The age- and sex-specific health transition rates and probabilities are estimated based on the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) panel data for the years 2008–2011. The results confirm the well-known regularities in research on health: the risk of being unhealthy is increasing with age, while the probability of recovery is decreasing. Women have a higher risk of the onset of disability than men, whereas recovery to health is similar for men and women.

scholarly journals Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Maigeng Zhou ◽  
Zhoupeng Ren ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
Boguang Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Specific Effect ◽  
Northern China ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractRecent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

Remaking Medicare: The Voucher Myth

1998 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-46
Author(s):  
Jonathan Oberlander
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Choice ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Medicare Beneficiaries ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Medicare Program ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Voucher System

There is growing enthusiasm for transforming Medicare into a voucher system. Advocates claim vouchers would increase the health care choices available to Medicare beneficiaries, reduce the regulatory burden on the federal government, and promote the benefits of fair market competition. In addition, some analysts contend vouchers are the only feasible solution to Medicare's short-term financing problems and the long-term “crisis” of the retirement of the baby-boom generation. The author argues against these claims. Vouchers would not work as advertised by proponents because of the limitations of risk-adjustment methods and unrealistic assumptions about consumer choice. Moreover, the elderly and disabled Medicare population is ill-suited to cope in a competitive insurance system. Implementation of vouchers would therefore pose a threat to both the health of beneficiaries and the stability of the Medicare program. The implications of this analysis for Medicare reform are discussed.

Roman Age Structure: Evidence and Models

2001 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Scheidel
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Public Affairs ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Specific Distribution ◽  
The Status ◽  
To Come

For many Romans, life was short. In consequence, the young greatly outnumbered the elderly. Historians have long accepted these basic truths, even if they are only beginning to come to terms with the social implications of an alien demographic regime. But how short is ‘short’, and how many Romans were children, how many adults? Does it matter, and can we know?The importance of demographic structure is not in doubt. High mortality causes scarce energy resources to be wasted in pregnancies and nursing, and poses a disincentive to investment in education. It destabilizes families and households, exposes orphans and widows to risk and potential hardship, and shortens the time-horizons of economic activity. In the long term, average life expectancy is the principal determinant of fertility. Poor chances of survival trigger high birth rates to ensure genetic survival. High fertility, in turn, is negatively correlated with the status and well-being of women, and constrains female participation in economic and public affairs. Overall age structure, in conjunction with cultural practices from marriage to child care, determines the prevalence of orphans and widows, and affects the age-specific distribution of fertility. In sum, age structure is instrumental in framing and shaping expectations and experiences. For this reason alone, our understanding of life in the Roman world is critically dependent on our knowledge of demographic conditions.

scholarly journals Statistical Estimation of Modern Trends and Prospects of the Size and Structure Population of Ukraine

2017 ◽  
pp. 65-72
Author(s):  
Z. О. Palian ◽  
I. H. Bondarenko
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
The Crimea ◽  
Size And Structure

A balanced change in demographic processes should be considered as a prerequisite and, at the same time, as a result of the stable development of the state. Reproduction intensity depends not only on the character of demographic behavior, but also on the presence of contingents of the population, providing or potentially able to provide for its replacement. The dynamics of Ukrainian population, the transformation of its gender-age structure during the period of independence, taking into account the intensive and structural factors of natural increase and migration, is considered. During 2002-2015, the regime of survival and fertility improved in Ukraine, due to which the depopulation slowed down somewhat. But even these positive changes do not compensate for the loss of population size as a result of systematic aging, reducing the proportion of reproductive contingent and its aging. Significant demographic losses, direct and indirect, were caused by a hybrid war from Russia. Alienation of the territory of the Crimea and parts of Donbas is not only a minus 2.5 million citizens of Ukraine. This is a change in the structure of the population - a decrease in the proportion of older age groups that increase the demographic load and worsen the characteristics of survival and fertility of the maternal generation. In this work are presented the results of the short-term simulation of population size and structure taking into account modern trends of replacements components and existing administrative-territorial changes. Two scenarios of the forecast for 2018 have been developed, and the base year it was taken in 2013, when the Crimea was part of Ukraine. The first, realistic scenario was based on the preservation of the current situation - Ukraine without the annexed Crimea and the occupied part of the Donbas. The second scenario imitates the return to Ukraine of all the lost territories. Simulation showed that the population of Ukraine will be reduced by both scenarios, but to 41.9 million people under the scenario without the occupied and annexed territories and to 44.7 million people in the second scenario. The finish of war will due to slow down the death rate to 14.9%0. The age structure of the population does not differ significantly in two scenarios, because the forecast horizon is very short (4 years). The share of generation of parents and women of reproductive age in both variants of the forecast decreases. However, in the case of returning Crimea, it will be even lower (47.4% vs. 47.5% in the first scenario). The reason for this is the emigration of young and middle-aged people to the mainland of Ukraine and to the Russian Federation, which provided some preferences to the settlers from Ukraine. Expected structural changes combined with the modern life and fertility regime will worsen natural population growth rates in both scenarios. In further research is planned to build trend models of births and deaths that will allow the artificially restore the interrupted time series due to administrative-territorial incomparability of data on demographic events

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