scholarly journals COINTEGRATION BETWEEN STOCK MARKET INDICES AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES: EVIDENCE FROM TRANSITION COUNTRIES

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Vesna Prorok ◽  
Slađana Paunović
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Transition Countries ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates ◽  
Short Run

This paper analyzes the interdependence between stock market indices and exchange rates in four transition countries: Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The analysis is based on monthly data for the nominal exchange stock market indices and nominal exchange rates over the period from March 2010 to March 2015. The main objective of this work is to determine whether the exchange rates had a significant impact on future trends in the capital markets and vice versa. Empirical analysis has shown that the series are stationary in the first differences, and using both Engle-Granger cointegration and Granger causality test it has been shown, as well, that there is neither long-run nor short-run relationship between these two variables. In other words, it means that prediction of movement of one variable cannot be based on past values of other variable

A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 911-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.

The Linkage between Chittagong Stock Market and Dhaka Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahidullah Tasfiq ◽  
◽  
Nasrin Jahan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis

This paper aims at determining the relationship between the two domestic stock markets of Bangladesh – the Chittagong Stock Market (CSE) and the Dhaka Stock Market (DSE). The daily stock price indices that represent the performance of the two stock markets are collected. In order to find out the interdependent relationship, the Engle-Granger Cointegration test, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition Analysis are employed in this paper. The main finding of this study is that both the stock markets are related in the long run. However, there is a one-way short-run effect from the DSE on the CSE market. The CSE market quickly responds to the shock in the DSE market. But, the DSE market is not responsive to the CSE market. The variance decomposition analysis shows that most of the shocks in the CSE market are explained by its own market. On the other hand, a small number of shocks in the DSE market are explained by the CSE market as well as its own market.

scholarly journals REAL SHOCK OR NOMINAL SHOCK? EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS IN CAMBODIA AND LAO PDR

2010 ◽  
Vol 55 (04) ◽  
pp. 685-703 ◽  
Author(s):  
SEIHA OK ◽  
MAKOTO KAKINAKA ◽  
HIROAKI MIYAMOTO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Real Shocks ◽  
Nominal Shocks

This paper studies sources of fluctuations in real and nominal US dollar exchange rates in Cambodia and Lao PDR by decomposing them into the components induced by real and nominal factors. These shocks affecting real and nominal exchange rates are identified by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with the long-run neutrality restriction of Blanchard and Quah (1989). The empirical analysis demonstrates that real shocks in direction of depreciation lead to real and nominal depreciation, while nominal shocks induce long-run nominal depreciation but real appreciation in the short-run. Several economic implications are also discussed.

Cointegration of Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from India

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Beeralaguddada Srinivasa Veerappa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Indian Stock Market

At present stock return is significantly related to other global stock markets. The present paper empirically investigates the short run and long run equilibrium relationship between the stock market of India, Japan Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Australia monthly data during January 1995 to December 2013. Researcher employs correlation test, multivariate co-integration framework, Vector Auto Regressive error-correction model and Granger causality test with reference to financial up evils in Asia and world viz., Asian crisis (1997/98), financial crisis (2008) Inflation conditions, Natural disasters, financial up evils etc. of long run relationship. Results find that the Indian stock market return is significantly co-integrated with long run and short run situations/causalities in Asian Stock returns.

An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between oil prices and Indian stock market

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Kalpataru Bandopadhyay ◽  
Debasish Mondal
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between oil price shocks and Indian stock market. Design/methodology/approach – The study used daily data for the period starting from January 2001 to March 2013. In this study, Johansen's cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) test have been applied to exhibit the long-run and short-run relationship between them. Findings – The cointegration result indicates the existence of long-term relationship. Further, the error correction term of VECM shows a long-run causality moves from Indian stock market to oil price but not the vice versa. The results of the Granger causality test under the VECM framework confirm that no short-run causality between the variables exists. The VDCs analysis revealed that the Indian stock markets and crude oil prices are strongly exogenous. Finally, from the IRFs, analysis revealed that a positive shock in oil price has a small but persistence and growing positive impact on Indian stock markets in short run. Originality/value – The study would enhance the understandings of the interaction between oil price volatilities and emerging stock market performances. Further, the study would enable foreign investors who are interested in Indian stock market helps in understanding the conditional relationship between the variables.

scholarly journals RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN A SMALL SOUTHERN AFRICA ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Duduzile Ngobe ◽  
◽  
Emenike Kalu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Money Market Funds ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment and stock market development in a small southern African economy. Specifically, the paper analyses long-run, short-run and causal relationships between foreign direct investment and stock market development in Eswatini for the 1990 to 2018 periods. Results of preliminary analyses of the variable show existence of positive skewness, fat-tailed, non-normal distribution, and I(1) order of integration for the foreign direct investment and stock market return series. Estimates from the ARDL model indicate evidence of a positive and statistically insignificant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment and stock market development in the kingdom of Eswatini. But in the short-run, there exist no relationship between foreign direct investment and stock market development in Eswatini. Estimates from Granger causality test do not show any evidence of causal relationship between foreign direct investment and stock market development in Eswatini. We recommend amongst others that capital market authorities should establish measures to increase the number of listings in the market so as boost investment options. In addition, there should be massive domestic investor-education on benefits of financing projects with a combination capital market funds, which has long-term tenor, and money market funds, which are of short-term nature.

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rates on Stock Markets in Turkey: Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear ARDL Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Çakır
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Multivariate Models ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run

In this chapter we investigate the asymmetric impact of exchange rates on three major stock market indices in Turkey using four different ARDL models between 2003M1 and 2018M12. This chapter also attempts to differentiate the short-run and the long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market indices namely BIST All shares, BIST National 100 index, and BIST National 30 index. Our motivating question is whether the relationship between exchange rates and three major stock market indices are symmetric or asymmetric in Turkey? To answer this, we first use the linear bivariate and multivariate models assuming the effects are symmetric. We then use the non-linear bivariate and multivariate models to examine whether exchange rate have symmetric or asymmetric effects on selected stock stock market indices in Turkey. The findings show that exchange rates have asymmetric effects on all three major stock market indices both in the short and long run. When we look at the long-run, the currency appreciation has positive and significant impact on selected stock markets but currency depreciation does not have an effect. This finding is in line with the understanding that Turkish sectors heavily depends on the import of raw and intermediate goods. The results also show that the economic activity has positive and significant effects on all stock markets implying that it is the main determinant in the long-run. Moreover, interest rates and volatility index were negative and significant in all markets. Thus, it has important implications for policy makers to provide stable prices and diverse investors.

Cointegration of Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from India

GIS Business ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 25-40
Author(s):  
Beeralaguddada Srinivasa Veerappa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Indian Stock Market

At present stock return is significantly related to other global stock markets. The present paper empirically investigates the short run and long run equilibrium relationship between the stock market of India, Japan Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Australia monthly data during January 1995 to December 2013. Researcher employs correlation test, multivariate co-integration framework, Vector Auto Regressive error-correction model and Granger causality test with reference to financial up evils in Asia and world viz., Asian crisis (1997/98), financial crisis (2008) Inflation conditions, Natural disasters, financial up evils etc. of long run relationship. Results find that the Indian stock market return is significantly co-integrated with long run and short run situations/causalities in Asian Stock returns.

scholarly journals Investigating the Dynamic Interlinkages between Exchange Rates and the NSE NIFTY Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Vijay Victor ◽  
Dibin K K ◽  
Meenu Bhaskar ◽  
Farheen Naz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Daily Movement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Time Required

This study aims at examining the short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among exchange rates and stock market index in India through a structured cointegration and Granger causality tests. Daily exchange rates of USD, EUR, CNY, JPY, and GBP to INR along with the daily movement of NSE NIFTY for a period spanning 13 years from 6 September 2005 to 31 December 2018 were used for the analysis. The results reveal that there is no evidence for a stable long-run relationship between NSE NIFTY and the exchange rates under study. However, the VAR-based Granger causality test shows that USD, JPY, and CNY have short-run causal relationship with NSE NIFTY. The NSE NIFTY also seemed to have an influence on USD expressed in terms of Indian rupee. The impulse response analysis further supports the results of the Granger causality test and provides information on the time required for the NSE NIFTY index to recover from a shock caused by the fluctuation in exchange rates.

scholarly journals Cointegration and Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from India

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Bhuvaneshwari ◽  
K. Ramya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pearson Correlation Test ◽  
Short Run

Predicting the exchange rate fluctuations and volatility is possibly one of the very toughest exercises in economics as it affects the market movement. The dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rate have drawn the attention of many economists for both theoretical and empirical reasons and plays an important role in influencing the development of a country’s economy (Nieh & Lee, 2001). Therefore, the present study is focusing on stock market prices and exchange rate, which in theory, is expected that one affects the other. The US Dollar (USD)-Indian Rupee (INR) exchange rates and stock market prices of India from January 2006 to December 2015 are considered as sample data for this study. In this research, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests are applied to test stationarity of data and the data was found stationary at first difference. Karl Pearson correlation test was used to find the correlating relationship between the variables and it is found that both the variables are significantly correlated. Johansen’s cointegration test is applied to determine the long-run equilibrium relationship between the study variables and identified that the variables are not cointegrated. Granger causality test is employed to determine the causality and short-run relationship between the variables and the result revealed bidirectional causality between variables.

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