Mapping influenza transmission in the ferret model to transmission in humans

The controversy surrounding 'gain-of-function' experiments on high-consequence avian influenza viruses has highlighted the role of ferret transmission experiments in studying the transmission potential of novel influenza strains. However, the mapping between influenza transmission in ferrets and in humans is unsubstantiated. We address this gap by compiling and analyzing 240 estimates of influenza transmission in ferrets and humans. We demonstrate that estimates of ferret secondary attack rate (SAR) explain 66% of the variation in human SAR estimates at the subtype level. Further analysis shows that ferret transmission experiments have potential to identify influenza viruses of concern for epidemic spread in humans, though small sample sizes and biological uncertainties prevent definitive classification of human transmissibility. Thus, ferret transmission experiments provide valid predictions of pandemic potential of novel influenza strains, though results should continue to be corroborated by targeted virological and epidemiological research.

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The Role of Migration in Maintaining the Transmission of Avian Influenza in Waterfowl: A Multisite Multispecies Transmission Model along East Asian-Australian Flyway

Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology ◽

10.1155/2018/3420535 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2018 ◽

pp. 1-7 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Akira Endo ◽

Hiroshi Nishiura

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Transmission Model ◽

Global Dynamics ◽

Long Distance ◽

Transmission Potential ◽

Influenza Transmission

Background. Migratory waterfowl annually migrate over the continents along the routes known as flyways, serving as carriers of avian influenza virus across distant locations. Prevalence of influenza varies with species, and there are also geographical and temporal variations. However, the role of long-distance migration in multispecies transmission dynamics has yet to be understood. We constructed a mathematical model to capture the global dynamics of avian influenza, identifying species and locations that contribute to sustaining transmission.Methods. We devised a multisite, multispecies SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, and estimated transmission rates within and between species in each geographical location from prevalence data. Parameters were directly sampled from posterior distribution under Bayesian inference framework. We then analyzed contribution of each species in each location to the global patterns of influenza transmission.Results. Transmission and migration parameters were estimated by Bayesian posterior sampling. The basic reproduction number was estimated at 1.1, slightly above the endemic threshold. Mallard was found to be the most important host with the highest transmission potential, and high- and middle-latitude regions appeared to act as hotspots of influenza transmission. The local reproduction number suggested that the prevalence of avian influenza in the Oceania region is dependent on the inflow of infected birds from other regions.Conclusion. Mallard exhibited the highest transmission rate among the species explored. Migration was suggested to be a key factor of the global prevalence of avian influenza, as transmission is locally sustainable only in the northern hemisphere, and the virus could be extinct in the Oceania region without migration.

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Penalized Binary Regression for Gene Expression Profiling

Methods of Information in Medicine ◽

10.1055/s-0038-1633894 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 43 (05) ◽

pp. 439-444 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Michae Schimek

Keyword(s):

Microarray Analysis ◽

Predictive Performance ◽

Small Sample ◽

Probit Regression ◽

Binary Regression ◽

Data Set ◽

Small Sample Sizes ◽

Bayesian Probit Regression

Summary Objectives: A typical bioinformatics task in microarray analysis is the classification of biological samples into two alternative categories. A procedure is needed which, based on the expression levels measured, allows us to compute the probability that a new sample belongs to a certain class. Methods: For the purpose of classification the statistical approach of binary regression is considered. High-dimensionality and at the same time small sample sizes make it a challenging task. Standard logit or probit regression fails because of condition problems and poor predictive performance. The concepts of frequentist and of Bayesian penalization for binary regression are introduced. A Bayesian interpretation of the penalized log-likelihood is given. Finally the role of cross-validation for regularization and feature selection is discussed. Results: Penalization makes classical binary regression a suitable tool for microarray analysis. We illustrate penalized logit and Bayesian probit regression on a well-known data set and compare the obtained results, also with respect to published results from decision trees. Conclusions: The frequentist and the Bayesian penalization concept work equally well on the example data, however some method-specific differences can be made out. Moreover the Bayesian approach yields a quantification (posterior probabilities) of the bias due to the constraining assumptions.

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Role of Water Fleas (Daphniamagna)in the Accumulation of Avian Influenza Viruses from the Surrounding Water

Intervirology ◽

10.1159/000334691 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 55 (5) ◽

pp. 365-371 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Maha Diekan Abbas ◽

Jawad Nazir ◽

Petra Stumpf ◽

Rachel E. Marschang

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Avian Influenza Viruses ◽

Surrounding Water

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Role of expression of host cytokines in the pathogenesis of H9N2-PB2 reassortant and non-reassortant H5N1 avian influenza viruses isolated from crows in BALB/c mice

Microbial Pathogenesis ◽

10.1016/j.micpath.2021.105239 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 105239

Author(s):

Subbiah Kombiah ◽

Manoj Kumar ◽

Harshad Vinayakrao Murugkar ◽

Shanmugasundaram Nagarajan ◽

Chakradhar Tosh ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Avian Influenza Viruses ◽

H5n1 Avian Influenza

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Genetic Characterization of H5N8 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses Isolated from Falcated Ducks and Environmental Water in Japan in November 2020

Pathogens ◽

10.3390/pathogens10020171 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 171

Author(s):

Ahmed Magdy Khalil ◽

Yoshikazu Fujimoto ◽

Isshu Kojima ◽

Mana Esaki ◽

Kyonha Ri ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza ◽

Environmental Water ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Avian Influenza Viruses ◽

Highly Pathogenic ◽

Pathogenic Avian Influenza ◽

Distant Part

We isolated two highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) of subtype H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4b from falcated duck (Anas falcata) feces and environmental water collected at an overwintering site in Japan. Our isolates were almost genetically identical to each other and showed high genetic similarity with H5N8 HPAIVs recently isolated in South Korea, a distant part of Japan, and European countries. These results suggest the potential role of falcated ducks in the dissemination of HPAIVs.

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Frequency and patterns of exposure to live poultry and the potential risk of avian influenza transmission to humans in urban Bangladesh

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-01327-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Isha Berry ◽

Mahbubur Rahman ◽

Meerjady Sabrina Flora ◽

Amy L. Greer ◽

Shaun K. Morris ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Population Based ◽

Mobile Telephone ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Avian Influenza Viruses ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

The Past ◽

Live Poultry ◽

Influenza Transmission ◽

Live Poultry Markets

AbstractAvian influenza is endemic in Bangladesh, where greater than 90% of poultry are marketed through live poultry markets (LPMs). We conducted a population-based cross-sectional mobile telephone survey in urban Dhaka, Bangladesh to investigate the frequency and patterns of human exposure to live poultry in LPMs and at home. Among 1047 urban residents surveyed, 74.2% (95% CI 70.9–77.2) reported exposure to live poultry in the past year, with the majority of exposure occurring on a weekly basis. While visiting LPMs was less common amongst females (40.3%, 95% CI 35.0–45.8) than males (58.9%, 95% CI 54.0–63.5), females reported greater poultry exposure through food preparation, including defeathering (13.2%, 95% CI 9.5–17.9) and eviscerating (14.8%, 95% CI 11.2–19.4) (p < 0.001). A large proportion of the urban population is frequently exposed to live poultry in a setting where avian influenza viruses are endemic in LPMs. There is thus not only ample opportunity for spillover of avian influenza infections into humans in Dhaka, Bangladesh, but also greater potential for viral reassortment which could generate novel strains with pandemic potential.

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Knowledge and remaining gaps on the role of animal and human movements in the poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of avian influenza viruses – A scoping review

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0230567 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (3) ◽

pp. e0230567

Author(s):

Claire Hautefeuille ◽

Gwenaëlle Dauphin ◽

Marisa Peyre

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Scoping Review ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Poultry Production ◽

Avian Influenza Viruses ◽

Trade Networks ◽

Human Movements ◽

Global Spread

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Antiviral Role of Toll-Like Receptor-3 Agonists Against Seasonal and Avian Influenza Viruses

Current Pharmaceutical Design ◽

10.2174/138161209787846775 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 15 (11) ◽

pp. 1269-1274 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

J. Wong ◽

M. Christopher ◽

S. Viswanathan ◽

X. Dai ◽

A. Salazar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Toll Like Receptor ◽

Avian Influenza Viruses ◽

Antiviral Role

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Impact of Dose and Route of administration on Antibody Responses of Chickens Inoculated with inactivated Avian Influenza H5 Vaccine.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-158047/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Abubakar Ojone Woziri ◽

Clement Adebajo Meseko ◽

Faridah Ibrahim Nasir ◽

Khadijat Abdulkarim ◽

Folorunso Oludayo Fasina ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Route Of Administration ◽

Influenza Viruses ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Avian Influenza Viruses ◽

Humoral Immune ◽

Sequence Homologies ◽

The Mean ◽

Sub Saharan

Abstract Avian influenza viruses (AIV) poses significant threats to human and animal lives globally, and in spite of availability of vaccines, only few studies have established the role of passively acquired antibodies in the protection of chickens in sub Saharan Africa. The present study evaluated the influence of dose and route of administration of AI H5 inactivated vaccine on the humoral immune response of ISA brown chickens. Ninety “one-day-old” chickens were purchased from three major commercial hatcheries A, B and C (n = 30 chicks per hatchery), respectively. Results showed significant differences (P < 0.001) in the mean antibody titre levels at day 21 of age between chicks from hatcheries C (2,205.0 ± 409.1) and A (57.7 ± 49.9) at 21 days of age when either 0.2 ml or 0.5 ml of the vaccine was administered IM or SC. In addition, there were intra- and inter dose significant differences (P < 0.001) between the chicks at 21, 28, 35 and 42 days of age. Furthermore, intra- and inter route significant differences (P < 0.001) were detected between the chicks at 21 and 35 days of age. Overall, the AI H5 vaccine studied had variable outcomes and poorly immunogenic. Further studies should be conducted to characterize the T- and B-lymphocytes in chickens post AI H5 vaccines administration, and evaluate the sequence homologies between imported AI H5 vaccines and circulating AIV strains in Nigeria.

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