scholarly journals A combined model for short-term wind speed forecasting based on empirical mode decomposition, feature selection, support vector regression and cross-validated lasso

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e732
Author(s):  
Tao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition

Background The planning and control of wind power production rely heavily on short-term wind speed forecasting. Due to the non-linearity and non-stationarity of wind, it is difficult to carry out accurate modeling and prediction through traditional wind speed forecasting models. Methods In the paper, we combine empirical mode decomposition (EMD), feature selection (FS), support vector regression (SVR) and cross-validated lasso (LassoCV) to develop a new wind speed forecasting model, aiming to improve the prediction performance of wind speed. EMD is used to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from the original wind speed time series to eliminate the non-stationarity in the time series. FS and SVR are combined to predict the high-frequency IMF obtained by EMD. LassoCV is used to complete the prediction of low-frequency IMF and trend. Results Data collected from two wind stations in Michigan, USA are adopted to test the proposed combined model. Experimental results show that in multi-step wind speed forecasting, compared with the classic individual and traditional EMD-based combined models, the proposed model has better prediction performance. Conclusions Through the proposed combined model, the wind speed forecast can be effectively improved.

scholarly journals A Compound Structure for Wind Speed Forecasting Using MKLSSVM with Feature Selection and Parameter Optimization

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sizhou Sun ◽  
Jingqi Fu ◽  
Feng Zhu ◽  
Nan Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

The aims of this study contribute to a new hybrid model by combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with multikernel function least square support vector machine (MKLSSVM) optimized by hybrid gravitation search algorithm (HGSA) for short-term wind speed prediction. In the forecasting process, EEMD is adopted to make the original wind speed data decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual firstly. Then, partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is applied to identify the correlation between the corresponding decomposed components. Subsequently, the MKLSSVM using multikernel function of radial basis function (RBF) and polynomial (Poly) kernel function by weight coefficient is exploited as core forecasting engine to make the short-term wind speed prediction. To improve the regression performance, the binary-value GSA (BGSA) in HGSA is utilized as feature selection approach to remove the ineffective candidates and reconstruct the most relevant feature input-matrix for the forecasting engine, while real-value GSA (RGSA) makes the parameter combination optimization of MKLSSVM model. In the end, these respective decomposed subseries forecasting results are combined into the final forecasting values by aggregate calculation. Numerical results and comparable analysis illustrate the excellent performance of the EEMD-HGSA-MKLSSVM model when applied in the short-term wind speed forecasting.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiqing Kang ◽  
Qingxiong Tan ◽  
Xiaohui Yuan ◽  
Xiaohui Lei ◽  
Yanbin Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Superposition Principle ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Speed Prediction

Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

Noise model based ν-support vector regression with its application to short-term wind speed forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 57 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghua Hu ◽  
Shiguang Zhang ◽  
Zongxia Xie ◽  
Jusheng Mi ◽  
Jie Wan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Noise Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Model Based

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Hybrid Variational Mode Decomposition and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Bat Algorithm Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qunli Wu ◽  
Huaxing Lin
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Bat Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Variational Mode Decomposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition

With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, wind speed forecasting plays an important role in energy generation planning, power grid integration and turbine maintenance scheduling. This study proposes a hybrid wind speed forecasting model to enhance prediction performance. Variational mode decomposition (VMD) was applied to decompose the original wind speed series into different sub-series with various frequencies. A least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model with the pertinent parameters being optimized by a bat algorithm (BA) was established to forecast those sub-series extracted from VMD. The ultimate forecast of wind speed can be obtained by accumulating the prediction values of each sub-series. The results show that: (a) VMD-BA-LSSVM displays better capacity for the prediction of ultra short-term (15 min) and short-term (1 h) wind speed forecasting; (b) the proposed forecasting model was compared with wavelet decomposition (WD) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and the results indicate that VMD has stronger decomposition ability than WD and EEMD, thus, significant improvements in forecasting accuracy were obtained with the proposed forecasting models compared with other forecasting methods.

Short-term wind speed forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and feature selection

2016 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 727-737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Haikun Wei ◽  
Junsheng Zhao ◽  
Tianhong Liu ◽  
Tingting Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition

scholarly journals A New Hybrid Approach for Wind Speed Forecasting Applying Support Vector Machine with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Cuckoo Search Algorithm

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 1754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tongxiang Liu ◽  
Shenzhong Liu ◽  
Jiani Heng ◽  
Yuyang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Cuckoo Search Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Proposed Model

Wind speed forecasting plays a crucial role in improving the efficiency of wind farms, and increases the competitive advantage of wind power in the global electricity market. Many forecasting models have been proposed, aiming to enhance the forecast performance. However, some traditional models used in our experiment have the drawback of ignoring the importance of data preprocessing and the necessity of parameter optimization, which often results in poor forecasting performance. Therefore, in order to achieve a more satisfying performance in forecasting wind speed data, a new short-term wind speed forecasting method which consists of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for data preprocessing, and the Support Vector Machine (SVM)—whose key parameters are optimized by the Cuckoo Search Algorithm (CSO)—is developed in this paper. This method avoids the shortcomings of some traditional models and effectively enhances the forecasting ability. To test the prediction ability of the proposed model, 10 min wind speed data from wind farms in Shandong Province, China, are used for conducting experiments. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model cannot only improve the forecasting accuracy, but can also be an effective tool in assisting the management of wind power plants.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document