scholarly journals A New Hybrid Approach for Wind Speed Forecasting Applying Support Vector Machine with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Cuckoo Search Algorithm

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 1754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tongxiang Liu ◽  
Shenzhong Liu ◽  
Jiani Heng ◽  
Yuyang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Cuckoo Search Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Proposed Model

Wind speed forecasting plays a crucial role in improving the efficiency of wind farms, and increases the competitive advantage of wind power in the global electricity market. Many forecasting models have been proposed, aiming to enhance the forecast performance. However, some traditional models used in our experiment have the drawback of ignoring the importance of data preprocessing and the necessity of parameter optimization, which often results in poor forecasting performance. Therefore, in order to achieve a more satisfying performance in forecasting wind speed data, a new short-term wind speed forecasting method which consists of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for data preprocessing, and the Support Vector Machine (SVM)—whose key parameters are optimized by the Cuckoo Search Algorithm (CSO)—is developed in this paper. This method avoids the shortcomings of some traditional models and effectively enhances the forecasting ability. To test the prediction ability of the proposed model, 10 min wind speed data from wind farms in Shandong Province, China, are used for conducting experiments. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model cannot only improve the forecasting accuracy, but can also be an effective tool in assisting the management of wind power plants.

scholarly journals A New Wind Speed Forecasting Modeling Strategy Using Two-Stage Decomposition, Feature Selection and DAWNN

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sizhou Sun ◽  
Lisheng Wei ◽  
Jie Xu ◽  
Zhenni Jin
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Frequency Component ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speed Data ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Mode Decomposition

Accurate wind speed prediction plays a crucial role on the routine operational management of wind farms. However, the irregular characteristics of wind speed time series makes it hard to predict accurately. This study develops a novel forecasting strategy for multi-step wind speed forecasting (WSF) and illustrates its effectiveness. During the WSF process, a two-stage signal decomposition method combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is exploited to decompose the empirical wind speed data. The EEMD algorithm is firstly employed to disassemble wind speed data into several intrinsic mode function (IMFs) and one residual (Res). The highest frequency component, IMF1, obtained by EEMD is further disassembled into different modes by the VMD algorithm. Then, feature selection is applied to eliminate the illusive components in the input-matrix predetermined by partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and the parameters in the proposed wavelet neural network (WNN) model are optimized for improving the forecasting performance, which are realized by hybrid backtracking search optimization algorithm (HBSA) integrating binary-valued BSA (BBSA) with real-valued BSA (RBSA), simultaneously. Combinations of Morlet function and Mexican hat function by weighted coefficient are constructed as activation functions for WNN, namely DAWNN, to enhance its regression performance. In the end, the final WSF values are obtained by assembling the prediction results of each decomposed components. Two sets of actual wind speed data are applied to evaluate and analyze the proposed forecasting strategy. Forecasting results, comparisons, and analysis illustrate that the proposed EEMD/VMD-HSBA-DAWNN is an effective model when employed in multi-step WSF.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Neural Networks Combining Abnormal Detection Method

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Xuejun Chen ◽  
Jing Zhao ◽  
Wenchao Hu ◽  
Yufeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Hybrid Approaches ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

As one of the most promising renewable resources in electricity generation, wind energy is acknowledged for its significant environmental contributions and economic competitiveness. Because wind fluctuates with strong variation, it is quite difficult to describe the characteristics of wind or to estimate the power output that will be injected into the grid. In particular, short-term wind speed forecasting, an essential support for the regulatory actions and short-term load dispatching planning during the operation of wind farms, is currently regarded as one of the most difficult problems to be solved. This paper contributes to short-term wind speed forecasting by developing two three-stage hybrid approaches; both are combinations of the five-three-Hanning (53H) weighted average smoothing method, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) algorithm, and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural networks. The chosen datasets are ten-minute wind speed observations, including twelve samples, and our simulation indicates that the proposed methods perform much better than the traditional ones when addressing short-term wind speed forecasting problems.

scholarly journals An EPC Forecasting Method for Stock Index Based on Integrating Empirical Mode Decomposition, SVM and Cuckoo Search Algorithm

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 481-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangfei Li ◽  
Zaisheng Zhang ◽  
Chao Huang
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Cuckoo Search Algorithm ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Parameters Selection ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Improved Cuckoo Search Algorithm

AbstractIn order to improve the forecasting accuracy, a hybrid error-correction approach by integrating support vector machine (SVM), empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and the improved cuckoo search algorithm (ICS) was introduced in this study. By using two indexes as examples, the empirical study shows our proposed approach by means of synchronously predict the prediction error which used to correct the preliminary predicted values has better prediction precision than other five competing approaches, furthermore, the improved strategies for cuckoo search algorithm has better performance than other three evolutionary algorithms in parameters selection.

scholarly journals Dual-Mass MEMS Gyroscope Parallel Denoising and Temperature Compensation Processing Based on WLMP and CS-SVR

Micromachines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longkang Chang ◽  
Huiliang Cao ◽  
Chong Shen
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Temperature Compensation ◽  
Linear Prediction ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Cuckoo Search Algorithm ◽  
Temperature Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Mixed Features

For the sake of decreasing the effects of noise and temperature error on the measurement accuracy of micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) gyroscopes, a denoising and temperature drift compensation parallel model method based on wavelet transform and forward linear prediction (WFLP) and support vector regression based on the cuckoo search algorithm (CS-SVR) is proposed in this paper. First, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is proposed in this paper, which is aimed at dividing the output signal of the gyroscope into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs); then, the IMFs are classified into three features—drift, mixed, and pure noise features—by the sample entropy (SE) value. Second, a wavelet transform and forward linear prediction (WFLP) are combined to remove the noise from the mixed features. Meanwhile, the drift feature is compensated by support vector regression based on the cuckoo search algorithm (CS-SVR). Finally, through reconstruction, the final signal is obtained. Experimental results demonstrate that the VMD-SE-WFLP-CS-SVR method proposed in this paper can decrease noise and compensate the temperature error effectively (angular random walking value is optimized from 1.667°/√h to 0.0667°/√h and the bias stability is reduced from 30°/h to 4°/h). In terms of denoising, the performance of the WFLP algorithm is superior to the wavelet threshold and FLP, as it combines their advantages; furthermore, in terms of temperature compensation, the proposed CS-SVR algorithm uses the cuckoo search algorithm to find the optimal parameters of SVR, improving the accuracy of the model.

scholarly journals A Compound Structure for Wind Speed Forecasting Using MKLSSVM with Feature Selection and Parameter Optimization

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sizhou Sun ◽  
Jingqi Fu ◽  
Feng Zhu ◽  
Nan Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

The aims of this study contribute to a new hybrid model by combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with multikernel function least square support vector machine (MKLSSVM) optimized by hybrid gravitation search algorithm (HGSA) for short-term wind speed prediction. In the forecasting process, EEMD is adopted to make the original wind speed data decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual firstly. Then, partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is applied to identify the correlation between the corresponding decomposed components. Subsequently, the MKLSSVM using multikernel function of radial basis function (RBF) and polynomial (Poly) kernel function by weight coefficient is exploited as core forecasting engine to make the short-term wind speed prediction. To improve the regression performance, the binary-value GSA (BGSA) in HGSA is utilized as feature selection approach to remove the ineffective candidates and reconstruct the most relevant feature input-matrix for the forecasting engine, while real-value GSA (RGSA) makes the parameter combination optimization of MKLSSVM model. In the end, these respective decomposed subseries forecasting results are combined into the final forecasting values by aggregate calculation. Numerical results and comparable analysis illustrate the excellent performance of the EEMD-HGSA-MKLSSVM model when applied in the short-term wind speed forecasting.

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