Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

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Temporal variations and change of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-1-6291-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 1 (6) ◽

pp. 6291-6326

Author(s):

A. Venäläinen ◽

N. Korhonen ◽

N. Koutsias ◽

F. Xystrakis ◽

I. R. Urbieta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Fire ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Current Season ◽

Fire Activity ◽

Forest Fire Danger ◽

In Fire

Abstract. Understanding how fire-weather danger indices changed in the past, and detecting how changes affected forest fire activity is important in changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis datasets, ERA 40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest-fires statistical data from Greece and Spain to relate fire danger and fire activity. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA 40 (1960–1999) whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI and the number of high fire risk days shows an increasing trend which is significant at the 99% confidence level for South and East Europe. The cross-correlation calculated at national level in Greece and Spain between mean yearly area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order 0.5–0.6, and demonstrates the importance of the fire-season weather on forest fires. Our results show that, fire risk is multifaceted, and factors like changes in fire fighting capacity, ignition patterns, or landscapes might have played a role in forest fires trends. However, weather trends remain as important determinants of forest fires.

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Calibration of the Fire Weather Index over Mediterranean Europe based on fire activity retrieved from MSG satellite imagery

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf13157 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 23 (7) ◽

pp. 945 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Carlos C. DaCamara ◽

Teresa J. Calado ◽

Sofia L. Ermida ◽

Isabel F. Trigo ◽

Malik Amraoui ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Relative Number ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Weather Data ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Fire Activity ◽

Mediterranean Europe

Here we present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily maps of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. These are based on integrated use of vegetation cover maps, weather data and fire activity as detected by remote sensing from space. The study covers the period of July–August 2007 to 2009. It is demonstrated that statistical models based on two-parameter generalised Pareto (GP) distributions adequately fit the observed samples of fire duration and that these models are significantly improved when the Fire Weather Index (FWI), which rates fire danger, is integrated as a covariate of scale parameters of GP distributions. Probabilities of fire duration exceeding specified thresholds are then used to calibrate FWI leading to the definition of five classes of fire danger. Fire duration is estimated on the basis of 15-min data provided by Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites and corresponds to the total number of hours in which fire activity is detected in a single MSG pixel during one day. Considering all observed fire events with duration above 1h, the relative number of events steeply increases with classes of increasing fire danger and no fire activity was recorded in the class of low danger. Defined classes of fire danger provide useful information for wildfire management and are based on the Fire Risk Mapping product that is being disseminated on a daily basis by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis.

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EVALUATION OF FIRE ACTIVITY IN SOME REGIONS OF AEGEAN COASTS OF TURKEY VIA CANADIAN FOREST FIRE WEATHER INDEX SYSTEM (CFFWIS)

Applied Ecology and Environmental Research ◽

10.15666/aeer/1402_093105 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 93-105 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

M. ERTUĞRUL

Keyword(s):

Forest Fire ◽

Index System ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Fire Activity

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Extreme Wildfire occurrence in response to Global Change type Droughts in the Northern Mediterranean

10.5194/nhess-2017-415 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Julien Ruffault ◽

Thomas Curt ◽

Nicolas K. Martin St-Paul ◽

Vincent Moron ◽

Ricardo M. Trigo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Fire Suppression ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Specific Interactions ◽

Wildfire Occurrence ◽

Drought Conditions ◽

In Fire ◽

Mediterranean France

Abstract. Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large, high intensity wildfires. Yet, little is known regarding how it will affect fire weather and translate into wildfire behaviour. Here, we analysed the climatology of extreme wildfires that occurred during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016 in Mediterranean France. We identified two distinct shifts in fire climatology towards fire weather spaces that had not been explored before, and which result from specific interactions between the types of drought and the types of fire. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heatwave with a press drought intensified heat-driven fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and create several new generations of wildfire overwhelming fire suppression capacities.

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Proposal of an Iot Solution to Fire Risk Assessment Problem

KnE Engineering ◽

10.18502/keg.v5i6.7088 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ana Bernardo ◽

Pedro Silva ◽

Paulo Fazendeiro

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Initial Response ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Keywords Internet ◽

The Common ◽

Civic Awareness ◽

Municipal Level

Several of the fighting weaknesses evidenced by the forest fires tragedies of the last years are rooted in the disconnection between the current technical/scientific resources and the availability of the resulting information to operational agents on the ground. In order to be effective, a pre-emptive response to similar disasters must include the articulation between local authorities at municipal level - in prevention, preparedness and initial response - and the common citizen who is on the field, resides there, and has a deeper knowledge about the field of operation. This work intends to take a first step in the development of a tool that can serve to improve the civic awareness of all and to support the decision-making of the competent authorities. Keywords: Internet of things, Citizen science, Fire weather index

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Increased trends in global extreme fire weather driven predominantly by atmospheric humidity and temperature

10.21203/rs.3.rs-595210/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Piyush Jain ◽

Dante Castellanos-Acuna ◽

Sean Coogan ◽

John Abatzoglou ◽

Mike Flannigan

Keyword(s):

Global Analysis ◽

Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Dew Point ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Atmospheric Humidity ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Temperature Trends ◽

Extreme Fire

Abstract Climate and weather greatly influence wildfire, and recent increases in wildfire activity have been linked to climate change. However, the atmospheric drivers of observed changes have not been articulated globally. We present a global analysis of trends in extreme fire weather from 1979–2020. Significant increases in extreme (95th percentile) annual values of the Fire Weather Index (FWI95), Initial Spread Index (ISI95), and Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD95) occurred over 26.0%, 26.1%, and 46.1% of the global burnable landmass, respectively. Significant trends corresponded to a 35.8%, 36.0%, and 21.4% increase in mean global FWI95, ISI95, and VPD95, respectively. Relative humidity and temperature were identified as the drivers of significant trends in FWI95 and ISI95 in most regions, largely where temperature trends outpaced dew point trends. We identified relatively few regions in which wind speed or precipitation were drivers. These findings have wide-ranging implications for understanding fire risk in a changing climate.

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Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x09-153 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 39 (12) ◽

pp. 2369-2380 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Héloïse Le Goff ◽

Mike D. Flannigan ◽

Yves Bergeron

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Future Climate ◽

Fire Season ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

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Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-8-749-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 749-771 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Praveen Noojipady ◽

Douglas C. Morton ◽

Wilfrid Schroeder ◽

Kimberly M. Carlson ◽

Chengquan Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Palm Oil ◽

Oil Palm ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Forest Loss ◽

Fire Activity ◽

El Niño Events ◽

In Fire ◽

El Nino Events

Abstract. Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce sustainable palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident active fire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75 % and 66 % lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero deforestation.

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Fire weather index system components for large fires in the Canadian boreal forest

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf03066 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 391 ◽

Cited By ~ 72

Author(s):

B. D. Amiro ◽

K. A. Logan ◽

B. M. Wotton ◽

M. D. Flannigan ◽

J. B. Todd ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Weather Conditions ◽

Fire Season ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Fuel Moisture ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

System Parameters ◽

System Components ◽

Large Fires ◽

Canadian Boreal Forest

Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components and head fire intensities were calculated for fires greater than 2 km2 in size for the boreal and taiga ecozones of Canada from 1959 to 1999. The highest noon-hour values were analysed that occurred during the first 21 days of each of 9333 fires. Depending on ecozone, the means of the FWI System parameters ranged from: fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), 90 to 92 (82 to 96 for individual fires); duff moisture code (DMC), 38 to 78 (10 to 140 for individual fires); drought code (DC), 210 to 372 (50 to 600 for individual fires); and fire weather index, 20 to 33 (5 to 60 for individual fires). Fine fuel moisture code decreased, DMC had a mid-season peak, and DC increased through the fire season. Mean head fire intensities ranged from 10 to 28 MW m−1 in the boreal spruce fuel type, showing that most large fires exhibit crown fire behaviour. Intensities of individual fires can exceed 60 MW m−1. Most FWI System parameters did not show trends over the 41-year period because of large inter-annual variability. A changing climate is expected to create future weather conditions more conducive to fire throughout much of Canada but clear changes have not yet occurred.

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