scholarly journals Comparing CMIP-3 and CMIP-5 climate projections on flooding estimation of Devils Lake of North Dakota, USA

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e4711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gehendra Kharel ◽  
Andrei Kirilenko
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
North Dakota ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Devils Lake

BackgroundWater level fluctuations in endorheic lakes are highly susceptible to even slight changes in climate and land use. Devils Lake (DL) in North Dakota, USA is an endorheic system that has undergone multi-decade flooding driven by changes in regional climate. Flooding mitigation strategies have centered on the release of lake water to a nearby river system through artificial outlets, resulting in legal challenges and environmental concerns related to water quality, downstream flooding, species migration, stakeholder opposition, and transboundary water conflicts between the US and Canada. Despite these drawbacks, running outlets would result in low overspill risks in the next 30 years.MethodsIn this study we evaluated the efficacy of this outlet-based mitigation strategy under scenarios based on the latest IPCC future climate projections. We used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP-5 weather patterns from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) obtained under four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios and downscaled to the DL region. Then, we simulated the changes in lake water levels using the soil and water assessment tool based hydrological model of the watershed. We estimated the probability of future flood risks under those scenarios and compared those with previously estimated overspill risks under the CMIP-3 climate.ResultsThe CMIP-5 ensemble projected a mean annual temperature of 5.78 °C and mean daily precipitation of 1.42 mm/day; both are higher than the existing CMIP-3 future estimates of 4.98 °C and 1.40 mm/day, respectively. The increased precipitation and higher temperature resulted in a significant increase of DL’s overspill risks: 24.4–47.1% without release from outlets and 3.5–14.4% even if the outlets are operated at their combined full 17 m3/s capacity.DiscussionThe modeled increases in overspill risks indicate a greater frequency of water releases through the artificial outlets. Future risk mitigation management should include providing a flood warning signal to local resource managers, and tasking policy makers to identify additional solution measures such as land use management in the upper watershed to mitigate DL’s flooding.

Lake water level response to drought in a lake-rich region explained by lake and landscape characteristics

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (11) ◽  
pp. 1836-1845
Author(s):  
K. Martin Perales ◽  
Catherine L. Hein ◽  
Noah R. Lottig ◽  
M. Jake Vander Zanden
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Lake Water Level ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Lake Ecology ◽  
Coarse Woody Habitat

Climate change is altering hydrologic regimes, with implications for lake water levels. While lakes within lake districts experience the same climate, lakes may exhibit differential climate vulnerability regarding water level response to drought. We took advantage of a recent drought (∼2005–2010) and estimated changes in lake area, water level, and shoreline position on 47 lakes in northern Wisconsin using high-resolution orthoimagery and hypsographic curves. We developed a model predicting water level response to drought to identify characteristics of the most vulnerable lakes in the region, which indicated that low-conductivity seepage lakes found high in the landscape, with little surrounding wetland and highly permeable soils, showed the greatest water level declines. To explore potential changes in the littoral zone, we estimated coarse woody habitat (CWH) loss during the drought and found that drainage lakes lost 0.8% CWH while seepage lakes were disproportionately impacted, with a mean loss of 40% CWH. Characterizing how lakes and lake districts respond to drought will further our understanding of how climate change may alter lake ecology via water level fluctuations.

Zooplankton species richness and abiotic conditions in Thirlmere Lakes, New South Wales, Australia, with reference to water-level fluctuations

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-123
Author(s):  
Tsuyoshi Kobayashi ◽  
Martin Krogh ◽  
Hiroyuki ◽  
Russell J. Shiel ◽  
Hendrik Segers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Richness ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
New South ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Zooplankton Species ◽  
Abiotic Conditions ◽  
Lake Water Level ◽  
South Wales

Water-level fluctuations can have significant effects on lake biological communities. Thirlmere Lakes are a group of five interconnected lakes located near Sydney. Water levels in Thirlmere Lakes have fluctuated over time, but there has been a recent decline that is of significant concern. In this study, we examined over one year the species composition and richness of zooplankton (Rotifera, Cladocera and Copepoda) and abiotic conditions in Lakes Nerrigorang and Werri Berri, two of the five Thirlmere lakes, with reference to lake water level. We recorded a total of 66 taxa of zooplankton, with the first report of the rotifer Notommata saccigera from Australia, and the first report of the rotifers Keratella javana, Lecane rhytida and Rousseletia corniculata from New South Wales. There was a marked difference in abiotic conditions between the two lakes, with more variable conditions in Lake Nerrigorang. There was a significant positive correlation between zooplankton species richness and lake water level but only for Lake Nerrigorang. Although the two lakes are closely situated and thought to be potentially connected at high water levels, they show distinct ecological characters and the effect of water-level fluctuations on zooplankton species richness seems to differ between the lakes.

scholarly journals Modelling flood regulation ecosystem services dynamics based on climate and land use information

2021 ◽  
Vol 88 ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Thea Wübbelmann ◽  
Steffen Bender ◽  
Benjamin Burkhard
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Well Being ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Retention Capacity ◽  
Flood Regulation

The concept of ecosystem service (ES) identifies benefits that people obtain from ecosystems with contributions to human well-being. One important ES under external pressure is “flood regulation” that describes an ecosystem’s capacity to reduce flood hazards. Several related studies estimate current flood regulation ES. However, regional climate projections indicate a shift in precipitation patterns. Therefore, Climate and land use changes make it necessary to assess future supply in order to test functionality and adaptation measures. This study focuses on surface retention ES. We used two methods to show the relevance of different landscape scenarios and climate information for flood regulation ES supply: 1) hydraulic simulations with the model HEC-RAS 2) the flood retention capacity indicator suggested by the German MAES-Working group. We simulated two events: the historic flood of 2013 and future hypothetically 10% higher water levels. Furthermore, three land use change scenarios were evaluated. The model results indicate water accumulation by vegetation. Higher water levels of future climate scenarios lead to an increase in flooded areas and higher water volumes. To evaluate flood regulation capacities, an approach solely based on 2D retention areas, such as the MAES-indicator, is not sufficient. Modelling approaches deliver the opportunity for future scenario simulations.

Evapotranspiration Mapping with METRIC to Evaluate Effectiveness of Irrigation in Flood Mitigation for the Devils Lake Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 1575-1591
Author(s):  
Hakan Büyükcangaz ◽  
Dean D. Steele ◽  
Sheldon R. Tuscherer ◽  
David G. Hopkins ◽  
Xinhua Jia
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
North Dakota ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Subsurface Drainage ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Devils Lake ◽  
Land Use Maps

Abstract. A period of excess precipitation since 1993 in the Devils Lake basin in northeastern North Dakota has caused extensive flooding of agricultural land and has raised the question of whether irrigation of agricultural crops to increase evapotranspiration (ET) might be an effective way to remove water from the basin. The objectives of this study were to compare ET estimates derived from application of the Mapping ET at High Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) algorithm for North Dakota conditions (METRICND) under irrigated and rainfed conditions and to assess the potential for irrigation to increase crop ET as a flood mitigation strategy. Weather data, land use maps, and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery from 2006, 2007, and 2008 were used as inputs to the METRICND model. The ET for irrigated crops (ETIrrigated) was estimated at five test sites from the Devils Lake Basin Water Utilization Test Project (DLBWUTP). The ET for the predominantly rainfed study area (ETRainfed) was estimated using land use maps to identify locations of the same crops as were present on the test sites. The METRICND model was compared to ET values derived from an eddy covariance (EC) system for approximately two months in 2007 at an irrigated alfalfa test site in the DLBWUTP; the mean absolute error between METRICND and the EC system for the comparison period was 0.51 mm d-1. Linear regression of ET (in mm) for the test sites and the larger study area yielded ETIrrigated = 1.23 × ETRainfed + 4.77 with R2 = 0.96, and a t-statistic indicated that the slope was greater than 0 at p = 0.001, indicating the potential for increased ET under irrigation. However, addition of large volumes of irrigation water to the predominantly poorly drained soils in the basin will cause waterlogging and trafficability problems. Installation of subsurface drainage may help alleviate waterlogging, improve crop productivity, and increase ET, but subsurface drainage brings its own complications of disposal of the drained water, salinity of the drainage effluent, and possible sodicity problems on some soils. Keywords: Drainage, Evapotranspiration mapping, Irrigation, METRIC, Landsat 5, Remote sensing, Satellite imagery, SEBAL.

scholarly journals Detection and Attribution of Lake Victoria’s Water-Level Fluctuations in a Changing Climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Obed M. Ogega ◽  
James Mbugua ◽  
Herbert O. Misiani ◽  
Maurice Nyadawa ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Lake Victoria ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Intercomparison Project

This study investigated the influence of land-use and precipitation change and variability on Lake Victoria’s water-level fluctuations. Extreme precipitation events, corresponding to extreme water-levels, over the lake and its catchment area were identified and their return periods estimated by fitting them into a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Using general circulation models from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)’s Detection & Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), an assessment of the potential contribution of human-induced climate change on the observed precipitation patterns over the study area was done. The greatest precipitation anomalies for the period 1900-2020 were recorded in 1961’s October-December (OND) season and 2019’s June-August (JJA) and OND seasons, corresponding to the period when the highest water-levels were recorded in Lake Victoria. While land-use change in the study domain was observed, extended and unusually heavy June to December 2019 precipitation bore the greatest responsibility for the 2019/2020 high water-levels in Lake Victoria. The OND precipitation event of 2019 was a 1-in-52-year event compared to the 1961’s 1-in-693 years. Differences in return periods at various parts of the lake imply a high spatial climate variability within the lake itself. An analysis of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) showed natural variability to have a greater influence on the JJA and OND precipitation patterns over Lake Victoria than human-induced climate change. However, variability over the land area of the study domain was mainly driven by human-induced climate change rather than natural variability, implying a unique climate system over Lake Victoria. Findings from the current study enhance the understanding of Lake Victoria’s water budget and motivate for further research to inform effective strategies on the planning and use of Lake Victoria’s water resources in a changing climate.

AUTOMATIC WATER LEVEL MONITORING WITH IOT AND LPWAN

2019 ◽  
pp. 95-103
Author(s):  
Krum Videnov ◽  
Vanya Stoykova
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Water Sources ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Level Monitoring ◽  
Water Level Monitoring

Monitoring water levels of lakes, streams, rivers and other water basins is of essential importance and is a popular measurement for a number of different industries and organisations. Remote water level monitoring helps to provide an early warning feature by sending advance alerts when the water level is increased (reaches a certain threshold). The purpose of this report is to present an affordable solution for measuring water levels in water sources using IoT and LPWAN. The assembled system enables recording of water level fluctuations in real time and storing the collected data on a remote database through LoRaWAN for further processing and analysis.

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