scholarly journals Feeling and Thinking about the Future: Offline Metacognition in Decision-Making

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 331-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toma Strle
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Future

Beyond 2000: Decision making and the future of organizations

2000 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-27
Author(s):  
James B. Rieley ◽  
Andrew Crossley
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Future

FISCAL PESSIMISM IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: TOCQUEVILLE'S CROSS REVISITED

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Isabel Cepeda ◽  
Pedro Fraile Balbín
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Income Redistribution ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Economic Decision ◽  
Modern School ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
The Future

ABSTRACT This paper explores Alexis de Tocqueville's thought on fiscal political economy as a forerunner of the modern school of preference falsification and rational irrationality in economic decision making. A good part of the literature has misrepresented Tocqueville as an unconditional optimist regarding the future of fiscal moderation under democracy. Yet, although he initially shared the cautious optimism of most classical economists with respect to taxes under extended suffrage, Tocqueville's view turned more pessimistic in the second volume of his Democracy in America. Universal enfranchisement and democratic governments would lead to higher taxes, more intense income redistribution and government control. Under democracy, the continuous search for unconditional equality would eventually jeopardise liberty and economic growth.

Redisign of the Air Traffic Control System-Moving People through Distributed Management

1978 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 485-485
Author(s):  
John G. Kreifeldt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Control System ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Air Traffic Control ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Critical Function ◽  
Congressional Hearings ◽  
The Future ◽  
Traffic Control System

The present national Air Traffic Control system is a ground-centralized, man intensive system which through design allows relatively little meaningful pilot participation in decision making. The negative impact of this existing design can be measured in delays, dollars and lives. The FAA's design plans for the future ATC system will result in an even more intensive ground-centralized system with even further reduction of pilot decision making participation. In addition, controllers will also be removed from on-line decision making through anticipated automation of some or all of this critical function. Recent congressional hearings indicate that neither pilots nor controllers are happy or sanguine regarding the FAA's design for the future ATC system.

Decision making: How the past guides the future in frontal cortex

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. R303-R306
Author(s):  
Bharath Chandra Talluri ◽  
Anke Braun ◽  
T.H. Donner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Frontal Cortex ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future

Forecast of the efficiency confidence interval of decision-making units in data envelopment analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (02) ◽  
pp. 431-445
Author(s):  
Azarnoosh Kafi ◽  
Behrouz Daneshian ◽  
Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh ◽  
Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Interval Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Units

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a well-known method for calculating the efficiency of Decision-Making Units (DMUs) based on their inputs and outputs. When the data is known and in the form of an interval in a given time period, this method can calculate the efficiency interval. Unfortunately, DEA is not capable of forecasting and estimating the efficiency confidence interval of the units in the future. This article, proposes a efficiency forecasting algorithm along with 95% confidence interval to generate interval data set for the next time period. What’s more, the manager’s opinion inserts and plays its role in the proposed forecasting model. Equipped with forecasted data set and with respect to data set from previous periods, the efficiency for the future period can be forecasted. This is done by proposing a proposed model and solving it by the confidence interval method. The proposed method is then implemented on the data of an automotive industry and, it is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation methods and the interval model. Using the results, it is shown that the proposed method works better to forecast the efficiency confidence interval. Finally, the efficiency and confidence interval of 95% is calculated for the upcoming period using the proposed model.

An Analysis of Congestion During Running Events from the Perspective of Runners: Prevalence, Impact on Safety and Satisfaction, and Preferred Controls

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Peckover ◽  
Aldo Raineri ◽  
Aaron T Scanlan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Injury Risk ◽  
Likert Scale ◽  
Electronic Survey ◽  
Safety Concerns ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to examine the views of runners regarding their experiences with congestion during running events, including its prevalence, its impact on their safety and satisfaction, and their preferred controls to mitigate congestion. Runners (n = 222) with varied experience participating in running events (1-5+ years, 5-km races to Ultramarathons, and a mixture of road, trail, and cross-country events) completed an electronic survey. The survey was developed to assess the characteristics of respondents, whether they have experienced congestion during running events, the impact of congestion they have experienced during running events on their safety and satisfaction, and their preferred controls for congestion during running events. Survey data indicated runners had experienced some form of congestion prior to the race in the start corrals (93% of respondents), as the race started (97% of respondents), and during the race while running (88% of respondents). In turn, 73% of respondents indicated their experiences with congestion somewhat to extremely (i.e., rating of at least 3 on a 5-point Likert scale) negatively impacted their satisfaction with an event, while 43% of respondents indicated congestion somewhat to extremely negatively impacted their safety during an event. Regarding the impact of congestion on runner safety, 38% of respondents indicated they had slipped, while 27% of respondents indicated they had fallen during running events due to congestion. Further, congestion was attributed to injuries sustained (9%) and not finishing a race due to sustaining an injury (5%) during running events in some respondents. Respondents identified seeding runners based on previous run times (91%), use of wave starts (91%), and designing courses with limited pinch points, U-turns, and narrow paths (89%) as their most preferred controls to mitigate congestion during running events. Respondents resoundingly indicated self-seeding is not an effective method of managing congestion during running events. This study provides novel evidence that congestion is an issue for runners during running events, subsequently diminishing their satisfaction with events and posing safety concerns. In this way, race directors should involve runners in their decision-making processes when implementing appropriate controls to combat congestion for minimising injury risk to runners and ensuring a viable participant base remains attracted to their events in the future.

scholarly journals Cuing both positive and negative episodic foresight reduces delay discounting but does not affect risk-taking

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (8) ◽  
pp. 1998-2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Bulley ◽  
Beyon Miloyan ◽  
Gillian V Pepper ◽  
Matthew J Gullo ◽  
Julie D Henry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Delay Discounting ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Balloon Analogue Risk Task ◽  
Episodic Simulation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Monetary Choice Questionnaire

Humans frequently create mental models of the future, allowing outcomes to be inferred in advance of their occurrence. Recent evidence suggests that imagining positive future events reduces delay discounting (the devaluation of reward with time until its receipt), while imagining negative future events may increase it. Here, using a sample of 297 participants, we experimentally assess the effects of cued episodic simulation of positive and negative future scenarios on decision-making in the context of both delay discounting (monetary choice questionnaire) and risk-taking (balloon-analogue risk task). Participants discounted the future less when cued to imagine positive and negative future scenarios than they did when cued to engage in control neutral imagery. There were no effects of experimental condition on risk-taking. Thus, although these results replicate previous findings suggesting episodic future simulation can reduce delay discounting, they indicate that this effect is not dependent on the valence of the thoughts, and does not generalise to all other forms of “impulsive” decision-making. We discuss various interpretations of these results, and suggest avenues for further research on the role of prospection in decision-making.

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