Predictors of Migration in an HIV Hyper-Endemic Rural South African Community: Evidence From a Population-Based Cohort (2005-2017)

Globally, South Africa ranks worst for people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the unique legacy of internal labour migration continues to be a major driver of the regional epidemic, interrupting treatment-as-prevention efforts. The study examined levels, trends, and predictors of migration in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, using population-based surveillance data from 2005 through 2017. We followed 69 604 adult participants aged 15-49 years and recorded their migration events (i.e., out-migration from the surveillance area) in 423 038 person-years over 525 397 observations. Multiple failure Cox-regression models were used to measure the risk of migration by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, educational status, marital status, HIV, and community antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Overall, 69% of the population cohort experienced at least one migration event during the follow-up period. The average incidence rate of migration was 9.96 events and 13.23 events per 100 person-years in women and men, respectively. Migration rates declined from 2005 to 2008 then peaked in 2012 for both women and men. Adjusting for other covariates, the risk of migration was 3.4-times higher among young women aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥40 years (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR]=3.37, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 3:19-3.57), and 2.9-times higher among young men aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥40 years (aHR=2.86, 95% CI:2.69-3.04). There was a 9% and 27% decrease in risk of migration among both women (aHR=0.91, 95% CI: 0.83 – 0.99) and men (aHR=0.73, 95% CI 0.66 – 0.82) respectively per every 1% increase in community ART coverage. Young unmarried women including those living with HIV, migrated at a magnitude similar to that of their male counterparts, and lowered as ART coverage increased over time, reflecting the role of improved HIV services across space in reducing out-migration. A deeper understanding of the characteristics of a migrating population provides critical information towards identifying and addressing gaps in the HIV prevention and care continuum in an era of high mobility.

A reflective review on gay and bisexual men in China

Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), Treatment as Prevention (TasP), and undetectability affect the experience of gay and bisexual men living with HIV. They also link ‘risk’ and ‘safety’ to raw sex and the use of recreational drugs as they relate to sexual practices among gay and bisexual men. From these insights, we can think about the complex connections between biomedical innovations in the field of HIV, sexual practices, subjectivity, pleasure, spaces, and technologies. This commentary offers a sociocultural perspective based on a study with 28 male sex workers (hereafter MSWs) on gay and bisexual men—mainly male sex workers— and their wives (Tongqi) in China.

Women’s sexual scripting in the context of universal access to antiretroviral treatment—findings from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in South Africa

Background HIV treatment-based prevention modalities present new opportunities for women to make decisions around sex, intimacy, and prevention. The Universal test and treat (UTT) strategy, where widespread HIV testing is implemented and all people with HIV can access treatment, has the potential to change how sex is understood and HIV prevention incorporated into sexual relationships. We use the frame of sexual scripting to explore how women attribute meaning to sex relative to UTT in an HIV prevention trial setting. Exploring women’s sexual narratives, we explored how HIV prevention feature in the sexual scripts for women who had access to UTT in South Africa (prior to treatment guideline changes) and increased HIV prevention messaging, compared to places without widespread access to HIV testing and immediate access to treatment. Methods We employed a two-phased thematic analysis to explore longitudinal qualitative data collected from 71 women (18–35 years old) between 2016 and 2018 as part of an HIV prevention trial in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Of the participants, 58/71 (82%) were from intervention communities while 13/71 (18%) lived in control communities without access to UTT. Twenty participants self-disclosed that they were living with HIV. Results We found no narrative differences between women who had access to UTT and those who did not. HIV and HIV prevention, including treatment-based prevention modalities, were largely absent from women’s thinking about sex. In their scripts, women idealised romantic sex, positioned sex as ‘about relationships’, and described risky sex as ‘other’. When women were confronted by HIV risk (for example, when a partner disclosed his HIV-positive status) this created a point of disjuncture between this new perception of risk and their accepted relationship scripts. Conclusion These findings suggest that HIV-negative women did not include their partners’ use of antiretroviral therapy in their sexual partnership choices. For these women, the preventive benefits of UTT are experienced passively—through community-wide viral suppression—rather than through their own behaviour change explicitly related to the availability of treatment as prevention. We propose that prevention-based modalities should be made available and supported and framed as an intervention to promote relationship well-being.

Undetected anogenital sexually transmitted infections among young adults living with HIV and receiving antiretroviral therapy: Implications for HIV treatment as prevention

Undetected sexually transmitted infections (STIs) pose health threats to people living with HIV and when combined with uncontrolled HIV can amplify HIV transmission. The current study screened 174 self-identified men under age 36 living with HIV and receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) for urethral and rectal incident chlamydia and gonorrhea infections. Participants were also screened for biomarkers indicating alcohol and other drug use, subclinical genital inflammation, and HIV viral load. ART adherence and sexual behaviors were also assessed prospectively over 1 month. Results detected an undiagnosed STI in 32 (18%) individuals. Participants with a previously undetected STI had significantly greater HIV viremia than those who did not have an STI after controlling for several confounding variables. Participants with an undetected STI also engaged in greater condomless anal intercourse with HIV negative and unknown status partners, including partners to whom they had not disclosed their HIV status. These findings show that undetected STI are associated with incomplete ART adherence and unsuppressed HIV, all of which are important for preventing HIV transmission.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV: results from the French Hospital Database on HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) cohort study, 2014 to 2017

Background Despite the availability of highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and the expected treatment as prevention (TasP) effect, transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) persists in men who have sex with men (MSM) who engage in high-risk sexual behaviours. Aim We aimed to estimate the incidence of primary HCV infection among MSM living with HIV in France when DAA was readily available. Methods We used data from a large French hospital cohort of persons living with HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) prospectively collected between 2014 and 2017. HCV incidence rates were calculated using person-time methods for HCV-negative MSM at inclusion who had serological follow-up from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying the main assumptions to assess their impact on the results. Results Of 14,273 MSM living with HIV who were initially HCV-seronegative, 330 acquired HCV during follow-up over 45,866 person-years (py), resulting in an overall estimated incidence rate of 0.72/100 py (95% CI: 0.65–0.80). HCV incidence significantly decreased from 0.98/100 py (95% CI: 0.81–1.19) in 2014 to 0.45/100 py (95% CI: 0.35–0.59) in 2017 (54% decrease; 95% CI: 36–67). This trend was confirmed by most of the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion The primary incidence of HCV was halved for MSM living with HIV between 2014 and 2017. This decrease may be related to unrestricted DAA availability in France for individuals living with HIV. Further interventions, including risk reduction, are needed to reach HCV micro-elimination in MSM living with HIV.

Perceived efficacy of HIV treatment-as-prevention among university students in Johannesburg, South Africa

ObjectiveAntiretroviral therapy (ART) nearly eliminates HIV transmission. Yet information on treatment as prevention (TasP) has been slow to diffuse in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed TasP knowledge among university students in South Africa.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey of first-year university students at a large public university in Johannesburg, South Africa, all of whom would have recently completed secondary school HIV curricula. Respondents were asked to consider the likelihood of HIV transmission in a serodiscordant couple having condomless sex with and without virally suppressive ART. Beliefs were elicited using a 0–20 visual scale. Perceived TasP efficacy was computed as the relative reduction in risk associated with virally suppressive ART. We compared beliefs with estimates from the scientific literature and assessed associations with demographics, HIV testing history and qualitative measures of HIV knowledge and risk perception.ResultsThe analysis included 365 university students ages 18-25 years (48% female, 56% from Gauteng Province). On average, perceived annual risk of HIV transmission with virally suppressive ART was 73%; the objective risk is <1%. On average, respondents perceived that virally suppressive ART reduced annual transmission risk by 17%; the objective reduction in risk is >96%. We observed no differences in perceived TasP efficacy by participant characteristics and testing history. Perceived TasP efficacy was correlated with the (correct) belief that HIV risk increases with sexual frequency.ConclusionsUniversity students in South Africa underestimated the prevention benefits of HIV treatment. Low knowledge of TasP could limit demand for HIV testing and treatment among young adults.

134Trends and projections of Treatment as Prevention strategy in Africa and progress towards UNAIDS targets

Background Africa is lagging behind in progress toward global HIV/AIDS elimination targets. We estimated trends in and projections of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex; and calculated the probability of reaching key UNAIDS’s target. Methods We included 114 nationally-representative datasets in 38 African countries from DHS and MICS with 1456224 sexually active adults age 15-49 from 2003 to 2018. We applied Bayesian mixed effect models to estimate the coverage of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex for every country and year to 2030; and the probability of reaching UNAIDS testing and condom use targets of 95% coverage by 2030. Results Seven countries saw downward trends in annual HIV testing and four saw decreases in condom use at higher-risk sex, while most countries have upward trends in both indicators. The highest coverages of testing in 2030 are predicted in Swaziland, Uganda and Lesotho. Meanwhile, Swaziland, Lesotho, and Namibia will have the highest proportion of condom use in 2030. The probabilities of reaching targets were very low for both HIV testing (0%-28.5%) and condom use (0%-12.1%). Conclusions We observed limited progress on annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex in Africa, and little prospect of reaching global targets for HIV/AIDS elimination. Key messages Although some global sponsor agencies are considering withdrawal from supporting Africa, more considerable attention to funding and expanding testing and treatment are needed if HIV/AIDS elimination in Africa is to become more than a distant dream.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Unravelling Patterns of HIV Transmission towards Epidemic Control: The Quebec Experience (2002–2020)

Phylogenetics has been advanced as a structural framework to infer evolving trends in the regional spread of HIV-1 and guide public health interventions. In Quebec, molecular network analyses tracked HIV transmission dynamics from 2002–2020 using MEGA10-Neighbour-joining, HIV-TRACE, and MicrobeTrace methodologies. Phylogenetics revealed three patterns of viral spread among Men having Sex with Men (MSM, n = 5024) and heterosexuals (HET, n = 1345) harbouring subtype B epidemics as well as B and non-B subtype epidemics (n = 1848) introduced through migration. Notably, half of new subtype B infections amongst MSM and HET segregating as solitary transmissions or small cluster networks (2–5 members) declined by 70% from 2006–2020, concomitant to advances in treatment-as-prevention. Nonetheless, subtype B epidemic control amongst MSM was thwarted by the ongoing genesis and expansion of super-spreader large cluster variants leading to micro-epidemics, averaging 49 members/cluster at the end of 2020. The growth of large clusters was related to forward transmission cascades of untreated early-stage infections, younger at-risk populations, more transmissible/replicative-competent strains, and changing demographics. Subtype B and non-B subtype infections introduced through recent migration now surpass the domestic epidemic amongst MSM. Phylodynamics can assist in predicting and responding to active, recurrent, and newly emergent large cluster networks, as well as the cryptic spread of HIV introduced through migration.