A dynamically based method for estimating the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26° N from satellite altimetry

The large-scale system of ocean currents that transport warm waters in the upper 1000 m northward and return deeper cooler waters southward is known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Variations in the AMOC have significant repercussions for the climate system; hence, there is a need for long-term monitoring of AMOC fluctuations. Currently the longest record of continuous directly measured AMOC changes is from the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS programme, initiated in 2004. The RAPID programme and other mooring programmes have revolutionised our understanding of large-scale circulation; however, by design they are constrained to measurements at a single latitude and cannot tell us anything pre-2004. Nearly global coverage of surface ocean data from satellite altimetry has been available since the launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite in 1992 and has been shown to provide reliable estimates of surface ocean transports on interannual timescales including previous studies that have investigated empirical correlations between sea surface height variability and the overturning circulation. Here we show a direct calculation of ocean circulation from satellite altimetry of the upper mid-ocean transport (UMO), the Gulf Stream transport through the Florida Straits (GS), and the AMOC using a dynamically based method that combines geostrophy with a time mean of the vertical structure of the flow from the 26∘ N RAPID moorings. The satellite-based transport captures 56 %, 49 %, and 69 % of the UMO, GS, and AMOC transport variability, respectively, from the 26∘ N RAPID array on interannual (18-month) timescales. Further investigation into the vertical structure of the horizontal transport shows that the first baroclinic mode accounts for 83 % of the interior geostrophic variability, and the combined barotropic and first baroclinic mode representation of dynamic height accounts for 98 % of the variability. Finally, the methods developed here are used to reconstruct the UMO and the AMOC for the time period pre-dating RAPID, 1993 to 2003. The effective implementation of satellite-based method for monitoring the AMOC at 26∘ N lays down the starting point for monitoring large-scale circulation at all latitudes.

A nonlinear multi-scale theory of atmospheric blocking: Structure and evolution of blocking linked to meridional and vertical structures of storm tracks

This paper examines the impact of the meridional and vertical structures of a preexisting upstream storm track (PUST) organized by preexisting synoptic-scale eddies on eddy-driven blocking in a nonlinear multi-scale interaction model. In this model, the blocking is assumed, based on observations, to be comprised of barotropic and first baroclinic modes, whereas the PUST consists of barotropic, first baroclinic and second baroclinic modes. It is found that the nonlinearity (dispersion) of blocking is intensified (weakened) with increasing amplitude of the first baroclinic mode of the blocking itself. The blocking tends to be long-lived in this case. The lifetime and strength of blocking are significantly influenced by the amplitude of the first baroclinic mode of blocking for given basic westerly winds (BWWs), whereas its spatial pattern and evolution are also affected by the meridional and vertical structures of the PUST.It is shown that the blocking mainly results from the transient eddy forcing induced by the barotropic and first baroclinic modes of PUST, whereas its second baroclinic mode contributes little to the transient eddy forcing. When the PUST shifts northward, eddy-driven blocking shows an asymmetric dipole structure with a strong anticyclone/weak cyclone in a uniform BWW, which induces northward-intensified westerly jet and storm track anomalies mainly on the north side of blocking. However, when the PUST has no meridional shift and is mainly located in the upper troposphere, a north-south anti-symmetric dipole blocking and an intensified split jet with maximum amplitude in the upper troposphere form easily for vertically varying BWWs without meridional shear.

A Diagnostic Model for The Large-Scale Tropical Circulation Based on Moist Static Energy Balance

In this study we present a diagnostic model for the large-scale tropical circulation (vertical motion) based on the moist static energy equation for first baroclinic mode anomalies (MSEB model). The aim of this model is to provide a basis for conceptual understanding of the drivers of the large-scale tropical circulation changes or variations as they are observed or simulated in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase (CMIP) models. The MSEB model is based on previous studies relating vertical motion in the tropics to the driving forces of the tropospheric column heating rate, advection of moisture and heat, and the moist stability of the air columns scaled by the first baroclinic mode. We apply and evaluate the skill of this model on the basis of observations (reanalysis) and CMIP model simulations of the large-scale tropical vertical motion. The model is capable of diagnosing the large-scale pattern of vertical motion of the mean state, annual cycle, interannual variability, model-to-model variations and in warmer climates of climate change scenarios with correlations of 0.6-0.8 and nearly unbiased amplitudes for the whole tropics (30°S-30°N). The skills are generally better over oceans at large scales and worse over land regions. The model also tends to have an upward motion bias at higher latitudes, but still has good correlations in variations even at the higher latitudes. It is further illustrated how the MSEB model can be used to diagnose the sensitivity of the tropical vertical motion to the forcing terms of the models for the mean state, seasonal cycle and interannual variability such as El Nino. The model clearly illustrates how the seasonal cycle in the circulation is driven by the incoming solar radiation and how the El Nino shift in the Walker circulation results mainly from the sea-surface temperature changes. Overall, the model provides a very good diagnostic tool to understand tropical circulation change on larger and longer (>month) time scales.

Characteristics and mechanism of annual sea level variability in the southern tropical Indian Ocean

<p>The first baroclinic mode Rossby wave is known to be of critical importance to the annual sea level variability in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO; 0°–20°S, 50°–115°E). In this study, an analysis of continuously stratified linear ocean model reveals that the second baroclinic mode also has significant contribution to the annual sea level variability (as high as 81% of the first baroclinic mode). The contributions of residual high-order modes (3 # n # 25) are much less. The superposition of low-order (first and second) baroclinic Rossby waves (BRWs) primarily contribute to the high energy center of sea level variability at ;108S in the STIO and the vertical energy penetration below the seasonal thermocline. We have found that 1) the low-order BRWs, having longer zonal wavelengths and weaker damping, can couple more efficiently to the local large-scale wind forcing than the high-order modes and 2) the zonal coherency of the Ekman pumping results in the latitudinal energy maximum of low-order BRWs. Overall, this study extends the traditional analysis to suggest the characteristics of the second baroclinic mode need to be taken into account in interpreting the annual variability in the STIO.</p>

A regularity criterion for a 2D tropical climate model with fractional dissipation

Tropical climate model derived by Frierson et al. (Commun Math Sci 2:591–626, 2004) and its modified versions have been investigated in a number of papers [see, e.g., Li and Titi (Discrete Contin Dyn Syst Series A 36(8):4495–4516, 2016), Wan (J Math Phys 57(2):021507, 2016), Ye (J Math Anal Appl 446:307–321, 2017) and more recently Dong et al. (Discrete Contin Dyn Syst Ser B 24(1):211–229, 2019)]. Here, we deal with the 2D tropical climate model with fractional dissipative terms in the equation of the barotropic mode u and in the equation of the first baroclinic mode v of the velocity, but without diffusion in the temperature equation, and we establish a regularity criterion for this system.

Determination of Spatiotemporal Variability of the Indian Equatorial Intermediate Current

Using 4-yr mooring observations and ocean circulation model experiments, this study characterizes the spatial and temporal variability of the Equatorial Intermediate Current (EIC; 200–1200 m) in the Indian Ocean and investigates the causes. The EIC is dominated by seasonal and intraseasonal variability, with interannual variability being weak. The seasonal component dominates the midbasin with a predominant semiannual period of ~166 days but weakens toward east and west where the EIC generally exhibits large intraseasonal variations. The resonant second and fourth baroclinic modes at the semiannual period make the largest contribution to the EIC, determining the overall EIC structures. The higher baroclinic modes, however, modify the EIC’s vertical structures, forming multiple cores during some time periods. The EIC intensity has an abrupt change near 73°E, which is strong to the east and weak to the west. Model simulation suggests that the abrupt change is caused primarily by the Maldives, which block the propagation of equatorial waves. The Maldives impede the equatorial Rossby waves, reducing the EIC’s standard deviation associated with reflected Rossby waves by ~48% and directly forced waves by 20%. Mode decomposition further demonstrates that the semiannual resonance amplitude of the second baroclinic mode reduces by 39% because of the Maldives. However, resonance amplitude of the four baroclinic mode is less affected, because the Maldives fall in the node region of mode 4’s resonance. The research reveals the spatiotemporal variability of the poorly understood EIC, contributing to our understanding of equatorial wave–current dynamics.

Baroclinic Modes over Rough Bathymetry and the Surface Deformation Radius

The deformation radius is widely used as an indication of the eddy length scale at different latitudes. The radius is usually calculated assuming a flat ocean bottom. However, bathymetry alters the baroclinic modes and hence their deformation radii. In a linear quasigeostrophic two-layer model with realistic parameters, the deep flow for a 100-km wave approaches zero with a bottom ridge roughly 10 m high, leaving a baroclinic mode that is mostly surface trapped. This is in line with published current meter studies showing a primary EOF that is surface intensified and has nearly zero flow at the bottom. The deformation radius associated with this “surface mode” is significantly larger than that of the flat bottom baroclinic mode. Using World Ocean Atlas data, the surface radius is found to be 20%–50% larger over much of the globe, and 100% larger in some regions. This in turn alters the long Rossby wave speed, which is shown to be 1.5–2 times faster than over a flat bottom. In addition, the larger deformation radius is easier to resolve in ocean models.

Baroclinic Characteristics and Energetics of Annual Rossby Waves in the Southern Tropical Indian Ocean

The first baroclinic mode Rossby wave is known to be of critical importance to the annual sea level variability in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO; 0°–20°S, 50°–115°E). In this study, an analysis of continuously stratified linear ocean model reveals that the second baroclinic mode also has significant contribution to the annual sea level variability (as high as 81% of the first baroclinic mode). The contributions of residual high-order modes (3 ≤ n ≤ 25) are much less. The superposition of low-order (first and second) baroclinic Rossby waves (BRWs) primarily contribute to the high energy center of sea level variability at ~10°S in the STIO and the vertical energy penetration below the seasonal thermocline. We have found that 1) the low-order BRWs, having longer zonal wavelengths and weaker damping, can couple more efficiently to the local large-scale wind forcing than the high-order modes and 2) the zonal coherency of the Ekman pumping results in the latitudinal energy maximum of low-order BRWs. Overall, this study extends the traditional analysis to suggest the characteristics of the second baroclinic mode need to be taken into account in interpreting the annual variability in the STIO.

The impact of baroclinity on tidal ranges in the North Sea

<p>Tidal range is one of significant contributors of coastal inundation. Therefore, it is very important to investigate the dynamics of tidal range variations over different time scales. The baroclinity has the potential to modulate surface tides through ocean stratification on seasonal scale. In order to better understand the impact of ocean stratification on tidal ranges in the North Sea, the numerical simulations were carried out in baroclinic and barotropic modes covering the period from 1948 to 2014, using the regional 3D hydrodynamic prognostic Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). In the barotropic mode, the river forcing was also included, which only increases the local sea level without any influence on the density. The tidal range difference between baroclinic and barotropic modes in winter (less stratification) and summer (strong stratification) are compared at 22 tide-gauge stations, where the simulated sea surface elevations agree well with observations from 1950 to 2014. The statistical analysis generally shows that the difference at 19 stations (86% of total stations) in summer is much larger than that in winter during more than 32 years (50% of the analysis period). This suggests that the stratification decouples the surface and bottom layers weakening the damping effects of bottom friction, which is visible even at the coastal tide-gauge stations, where the ocean water is well-mixed. Obviously, the signal induced by stratification is propagated by the tidal Kelvin wave through the North Sea. Additionally, the spatial distribution of tidal range differences indicate that the amphidromic points in the North Sea moved westward in the baroclinic mode. Regarding the seasonal mean sea level at the stations, the results show that the coastal sea level could be increased by baroclinity itself, since the river runoff freshens the coastal water in the baroclinic mode, and thus the local sea level increases due to steric effect. Consequently, the increased sea level could further weaken the damping effect. However, this is a relatively minor impact on the tidal range.</p>