Bank asset allocation and finance structure under uncertainty in Vietnam

PurposeThe paper investigates the link between uncertainty and banks' balance sheet reactions.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs bank-level data in Vietnam during 2007–2019 to measure micro uncertainty in banking through the dispersion of bank-level shocks. Empirical regressions are performed by the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and then verified using the least squares dummy variable corrected (LSDVC) technique.FindingsBanks tend to reduce risky loans, hoard more liquidity and decrease financial leverage in response to higher uncertainty. The relationship between uncertainty and banks' balance sheet reactions is more pronounced for banks that suffer more credit risk and overall risk, thus supporting the precautionary motive of banks. Additionally, uncertainty also leads to a decline in the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) under Basel III, implying that banks may fail to find a more stable source of funding and be more subject to maturity mismatch during periods of higher uncertainty.Originality/valueThe paper is the first to explore comprehensively the relationship between uncertainty and banks' balance sheet aspects as simultaneously estimated by bank loans, bank liquidity and bank leverage. While many other uncertainty measures display aggregate uncertainty sources, an important contribution in this study is to anatomize uncertainty originating exclusively from banking at a disaggregate level. Besides, shedding light on how uncertainty drives bank funding liquidity as captured by the NSFR under Basel III is entirely novel in the literature.

Why Are Banks Exposed to Monetary Policy?

We propose a model of banks’ exposure to movements in interest rates and their role in the transmission of monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher interest rates allow banks to earn larger spreads on deposits. Therefore, if risk aversion is higher than one, banks’ optimal dynamic hedging strategy is to take losses when interest rates rise. This risk exposure can be achieved by a traditional maturity-mismatched balance sheet and amplifies the effects of monetary shocks on the cost of liquidity. The model can match the level, time pattern, and cross-sectional pattern of banks’ maturity mismatch. (JEL E43, E44, E51, E52, G21, G32)

The Impact of Seven Macroprudential Policy Instruments on Financial Stability in Six Euro Area Economies

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether macroprudential policy instruments can influence the credit growth rate and hence financial stability. We use a fixed effects panel regression model to test the following hypothesis for six euro area economies (Austria, Finland, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain) during time span 2010 Q3 to 2018 Q4: “Macroprudential policy instruments (degree of maturity mismatch; interbank loans as a percentage of total loans; leverage ratio; non-deposit funding as a percentage of total funding; loan-to-value ratio; loan-to-deposit ratio; solvency ratio) enhance financial stability, as measured by credit growth”. Our empirical results suggest that the degree of maturity mismatch, non-deposit funding as a percentage of total funding, loan-to-value ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio exhibit the predicted impact on the credit growth rate and therefore on financial stability. On the other hand, interbank loans as a percentage of total loans, leverage ratio, and solvency ratio do not exhibit the expected impact on the response variable. Since only four regressors (out of seven) have the signs predicted by our hypothesis, we can only partly confirm it.

Uncertainty and the Shadow Banking Crisis: Estimates from a Dynamic Model

Shadow banks play an important role in the modern financial system and are arguably the source of key vulnerabilities that led to the 2007–2009 financial crisis. I develop a quantitative framework with uncertainty fluctuations and endogenous bank default to study the dynamics of shadow banking. I argue that the increase in asset return uncertainty during the crisis results in a spread spike, making it more costly for shadow banks to roll over their debt in the short-term debt market. As a result, these financial institutions are forced to deleverage, leading to a decrease in credit intermediation. The model is estimated using a bank-level data set of shadow banks in the United States. The parameter estimates imply that uncertainty shocks can explain 72% of asset contraction and 70% of deleveraging in the shadow banking sector. Maturity mismatch and asset fire-sales amplify the impact of the uncertainty shocks. First-moment shocks to bank asset return, financial shocks, or fire-sale cost shocks alone cannot reproduce the large interbank spread spike, dramatic deleveraging, or contraction in the U.S. shadow banking sector during the crisis. The model also allows for policy experiments. I analyze how unconventional monetary policies can help to counter the rise in the interbank spread, thus stabilizing the credit supply. Taking bank moral hazard into consideration, I find that government bailout might be counterproductive as it might result in more aggressive risk-taking among shadow banks, especially when bailout decisions are based on bank characteristics. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

Green Credit Policy and Maturity Mismatch Risk in Polluting and Non-Polluting Companies

A major issue is whether the implementation of China’s green credit policy will affect the coordinated development of corporate sustainable operations and environmental protection. This paper used a propensity score matching—difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) model to analyse the impact of China’s green credit policy implemented in 2012 on the maturity mismatch risk between investment and financing in polluting and non-polluting companies. We found that: (1) green credit policies can help reduce the risk of maturity mismatch between investment and financing for polluting companies; (2) the reduction of short-term bank credit is the main way to curb the risk of maturity mismatch risk between investment and financing; (3) the green credit policy has no obvious mitigation effect on the risk of maturity mismatch between investment and financing among polluting companies with environmental protection investment; (4) the mitigation effect of the green credit policy on the maturity mismatch risk is more significant in state-owned polluting companies and polluting companies in areas with a lower level of financial development. The empirical results show that China’s green credit policy helps stimulate the environmental protection behaviour of companies, as well as helping alleviate the capital chain risk caused by the maturity mismatch between investment and financing. In addition, despite the effect of heterogeneity, it can solve the contradiction between environmental protection and economic development.

In defense of fractional free banking

This paper examines the debate between the so-called fractionalists and the reservists within the Austrian School of Economics (1994 – 2005), emphasizing the maturity mismatch problem (2009 – 2019). It focuses on the fundamental arguments: the ontological view on currencies as banks’ products (IOUs) and money, the purchasing power of money, and the maturity mismatch problem. Banking activity is seen as a vital evolutionary superstructure humans use to determine the marginal utilization of existing capital resources, effectively discovering the coincidence of money interest towards natural interest levels and time preferences within society. The thesis advocates the superiority of fractional and free banking over the reservist alternative. It shows that fractional free banking is not based on property rights violations, and does not cause systematic economic cycles beyond those related to natural business errors.

Developing Housing Finance in Pakistan – Challenges and Opportunities

Expanding home-ownership poses a fundament financial challenge arising out of the long-term nature of the asset, which calls for the development of institutions and markets to facilitate the flow of long-term funds. Development of the secondary mortgage market would alleviate classical maturity mismatch and liquidity issues. The public sector can provide an enabling environment with sound macroeconomic policies, corporate governance, rule of law, and enforceability of contracts. This study draws policy implications using the empirical evidence on the determinants of mortgage depth and penetration across countries. A large part of the variation in these two dimensions across countries is explained by the level of their financial development. Development of long-term sources of funds intermediated through specialized institutions seems particularly important, as we find that the development of pension funds, which are a source of long-term funding, is strongly associated with mortgage market development. Monetary and macro-economic stability, as indicated by a low and stable rate of inflation, appears to be a strong predictor of mortgage market development. We also detect a positive relationship between the degree of competition in the financial sector and mortgage market development.