Case Article—Louisiana Branch Lines

Louisiana Branch Lines is a struggling Southeast U.S. railroad in just four cities and 12 markets. Their marketing, operations, and finance performance is poor and their departments disjointed. In this customizable, nine-part case, instructors can choose to focus on basic problem structuring and descriptive and predictive statistics, optimization model building, simulation of solutions, or the integration of all of the above. It is based on a real-world case.

Rehabilitation of an Industrial Water Main Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis

This paper demonstrates the application of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodology in a real case study aiming to choose the best rehabilitation intervention of an industrial water main. This methodology is composed of three main stages: problem identification, structuring, and evaluation. Problem structuring, a crucial stage for the outcomes, includes identifying objectives, selecting scenarios within the analysis period, defining problem alternatives, and defining the problematic type. Problem evaluation includes the selection of assessment metrics, selection of the aggregation method, application of the method, and a sensitivity and robustness analysis. Two scenarios, nine assessment metrics, and seven alternatives are established, and two ranking methods (the additive model and ELECTRE III method) are used to compare the alternatives. The results show that the best solution corresponds to building a new pipe and deactivating the existing one, as it significantly reduces the pipe failure risk and O&M costs, whereas the worst solution is always the status quo case, since it is the only alternative that does not improve the system performance, independently of the ranking method and the analyzed scenario.

Can MCDA guide transdisciplinary endeavors? A framework applied to co-developing a flood forecasting system in West Africa

Climate change is projected to increase flood risks in West Africa. The EU Horizon 2020 project FANFAR co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting and alert system for West Africa in four workshops with 50–60 stakeholders from 17 countries, adopting a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) process. Firstly, we aimed to find a robust configuration of the FANFAR system. We document empirical evidence of MCDA, including stakeholder analysis, jointly creating 10 objectives, and 11 FANFAR system configurations. Stakeholders found it most important that the system produces accurate, clear, and accessible flood risk information, well before floods. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses helped identifying three configurations that were robust despite uncertainty of expert predictions and different stakeholder preferences, elicited in group sessions. Secondly, we investigated if problem structuring helps focus early technical system development. Although partly achieved, full MCDA was necessary to provide convincingly robust configurations. Thirdly, we critically analyzed MCDA based on literature from sustainability science and transdisciplinary research. Our proposed framework consists of three steps: co-design (joint problem framing), co-production (doing research), and co-dissemination and evaluation of integrated knowledge. MCDA met many requirements, but not all. In step 1, participatory MCDA with problem structuring provides a consistent methodology, and can identify stakeholders and shared objectives to foster joint understanding. MCDA successfully contributes to step 2 by combining interdisciplinary expert knowledge, integrating conflicting stakeholder preferences, handling uncertainty, and providing unambiguous, shared results. Many elements of step 3 are not met by MCDA. We discuss this framework and using MCDA for transdisciplinary hydrology research that engages with stakeholders and society.

A Multimethodology for Supporting the Boundary Selection of System Dynamics Models

System dynamics models can produce knowledge for decision-makers and, consequently, provide better choices. To be effective in its purpose, a model must reproduce an observed problem situation effectively. Hence, the compatibility between the observed problem situation and the created model is essential and represents a considerable challenge. In this context, this paper aims to describe an adaptation of the problem structuring method ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA), used in the Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection) step of the system dynamics modelling process. In summary, this adaptation consists of: (1) Selecting of stakeholders; (2) Capturing, aggregating and interpreting the insights using cognitive and causal maps, and (3) Using the interpretation of the causal maps for building a system dynamics model. The method proved to be satisfactory since it was able to direct the construction of a System Dynamics model based on a problem situation perceived by stakeholders acting in the native forests of the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

A Multimethodology for Supporting the Boundary Selection of System Dynamics Models

System dynamics models can produce knowledge for decision-makers and, consequently, provide better choices. To be effective in its purpose, a model must reproduce an observed problem situation effectively. Hence, the compatibility between the observed problem situation and the created model is essential and represents a considerable challenge. In this context, this paper aims to describe an adaptation of the problem structuring method ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA), used in the Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection) step of the system dynamics modelling process. In summary, this adaptation consists of: (1) Selecting of stakeholders; (2) Capturing, aggregating and interpreting the insights using cognitive and causal maps, and (3) Using the interpretation of the causal maps for building a system dynamics model. The method proved to be satisfactory since it was able to direct the construction of a System Dynamics model based on a problem situation perceived by stakeholders acting in the native forests of the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

A Systems-Based Framework for Immunisation System Design: Six Loops, Three Flows, Two Paradigms

Despite massive progress in vaccine coverage globally, the region of sub-Saharan Africa is lagging behind and not on track for Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030. Sub-national under-immunisation, related to geographical and social heterogeneity, is part of the problem. System-wide changes could transform current immunisation systems to become more sustainable, resilient and inclusive. A framework is proposed that captures the complexity of immunisation systems and offers directions for sustainable redesign. Insights were extracted from literature, stakeholder workshops, and field research in Rwanda and Kenya. A conceptual model of the national immunisation system was co-developed and validated with stakeholders. Leverage points were suggested for intervention scenario building. The Immunisation System Diagram assembles the paradigms of planned and emergency immunisation in one system and emphasizes the synchronized flows of vaccine receiver, vaccinator and vaccine. Six feedback loops capture the main subsystems. Sustainability and resilience are assessed based on loop dominance and dependency on exogenous factors such as donor funding and vaccine stockpiles. In group model building workshops, the diagram invites stakeholders to share their mental models, to assess the system's performance and to trigger detection of root causes and leverage points. The framework provides a systems-approach for problem structuring and policy design.

A prescriptive framework for recommending decision attributes of infrastructure disaster recovery problems

This paper proposes a framework to systematically evaluate and select attributes of decision models used in disaster risk management. In doing so, we formalized the attribute selection process as a sequential screening-utility problem by formulating a prescriptive decision model. The aim is to assist decision-makers in producing a ranked list of attributes and selecting a set among them. We developed an evaluation process consisting of ten criteria in three sequential stages. We used a combination of three decision rules for the evaluation process, alongside mathematically integrated compensatory and non-compensatory techniques as the aggregation methods. We implemented the framework in the context of disaster resilient transportation network to investigate its performance and outcomes. Results show that the framework acted as an inclusive systematic decision aiding mechanism and promoted creative and collaborative decision-making. Preliminary investigations suggest the successful application of the framework in evaluating and selecting a tenable set of attributes. Further analyses are required to discuss the performance of the produced attributes. The properties of the resulting attributes and feedback of the users suggest the quality of outcomes compared to the retrospective attributes that were selected in an unaided selection process. Research and practice can use the framework to conduct a systematic problem-structuring phase of decision analysis and select an equitable set of decision attributes.