scholarly journals A Multimethodology for Supporting the Boundary Selection of System Dynamics Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Leandro Duarte dos Santos ◽  
Sandro Luis Schlindwein ◽  
Erwin Hugo Ressel Filho ◽  
Caroline Rodrigues Vaz ◽  
Mauricio Uriona Maldonado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Problem Situation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Problem Structuring ◽  
Causal Maps ◽  
Selection Step ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Selection Of

System dynamics models can produce knowledge for decision-makers and, consequently, provide better choices. To be effective in its purpose, a model must reproduce an observed problem situation effectively. Hence, the compatibility between the observed problem situation and the created model is essential and represents a considerable challenge. In this context, this paper aims to describe an adaptation of the problem structuring method ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA), used in the Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection) step of the system dynamics modelling process. In summary, this adaptation consists of: (1) Selecting of stakeholders; (2) Capturing, aggregating and interpreting the insights using cognitive and causal maps, and (3) Using the interpretation of the causal maps for building a system dynamics model. The method proved to be satisfactory since it was able to direct the construction of a System Dynamics model based on a problem situation perceived by stakeholders acting in the native forests of the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

scholarly journals A Multimethodology for Supporting the Boundary Selection of System Dynamics Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Problem Situation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Problem Structuring ◽  
Causal Maps ◽  
Selection Step ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Selection Of

System dynamics models can produce knowledge for decision-makers and, consequently, provide better choices. To be effective in its purpose, a model must reproduce an observed problem situation effectively. Hence, the compatibility between the observed problem situation and the created model is essential and represents a considerable challenge. In this context, this paper aims to describe an adaptation of the problem structuring method ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA), used in the Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection) step of the system dynamics modelling process. In summary, this adaptation consists of: (1) Selecting of stakeholders; (2) Capturing, aggregating and interpreting the insights using cognitive and causal maps, and (3) Using the interpretation of the causal maps for building a system dynamics model. The method proved to be satisfactory since it was able to direct the construction of a System Dynamics model based on a problem situation perceived by stakeholders acting in the native forests of the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

scholarly journals Framing User Confidence in a System Dynamics Model: the Case of a Workforce Planning Problem in the New Zealand Army

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jason Yves Markham
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Workforce Planning ◽  
Planning Problem ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Constant Comparative Analysis

<p>Despite unresolved controversy and ongoing debate about user confidence in system dynamics models, there has been limited empirical exploration of the concept of user confidence in system dynamics models. This research elicited the concept of user confidence using a framing method (Russo & Schoemaker, 1989); analyzed the confidence criteria using constant comparative analysis (Cavana, Delahaye & Sekaran, 2001) and organized the confidence criteria into a descriptive framework. This research was conducted as an ethnographic case study of a New Zealand Army workforce planning problem. The simultaneous objectives of this research were to elicit the concept of user confidence in a system dynamics model and to assess the usefulness of the framing method for ascertaining user confidence criteria. The findings suggest that users of a system dynamics model had unique views of confidence, and while these views changed during the model-building project, they shared a common perspective of utility. Interestingly, user confidence criteria did not change significantly between the qualitative and quantitative stages of model-building. Output from the system dynamics workforce model supported the dynamic hypothesis that the use of ‘aspirational’ separation forecasts have contributed to New Zealand Army workforce shortfalls during times of high labour demand. Additionally, framing proved to be a useful methodology for eliciting and interpreting the elusive concept of user confidence in this case study. This case study concludes that although the confidence criteria of model users are diverse, extensive and difficult to elicit; framing can be employed as an interpretive filter to ascertain the elements of user confidence.</p>

scholarly journals Framing User Confidence in a System Dynamics Model: the Case of a Workforce Planning Problem in the New Zealand Army

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jason Yves Markham
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Workforce Planning ◽  
Planning Problem ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Constant Comparative Analysis

<p>Despite unresolved controversy and ongoing debate about user confidence in system dynamics models, there has been limited empirical exploration of the concept of user confidence in system dynamics models. This research elicited the concept of user confidence using a framing method (Russo & Schoemaker, 1989); analyzed the confidence criteria using constant comparative analysis (Cavana, Delahaye & Sekaran, 2001) and organized the confidence criteria into a descriptive framework. This research was conducted as an ethnographic case study of a New Zealand Army workforce planning problem. The simultaneous objectives of this research were to elicit the concept of user confidence in a system dynamics model and to assess the usefulness of the framing method for ascertaining user confidence criteria. The findings suggest that users of a system dynamics model had unique views of confidence, and while these views changed during the model-building project, they shared a common perspective of utility. Interestingly, user confidence criteria did not change significantly between the qualitative and quantitative stages of model-building. Output from the system dynamics workforce model supported the dynamic hypothesis that the use of ‘aspirational’ separation forecasts have contributed to New Zealand Army workforce shortfalls during times of high labour demand. Additionally, framing proved to be a useful methodology for eliciting and interpreting the elusive concept of user confidence in this case study. This case study concludes that although the confidence criteria of model users are diverse, extensive and difficult to elicit; framing can be employed as an interpretive filter to ascertain the elements of user confidence.</p>

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Employees’ Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6511
Author(s):  
Mudhafar Alefari ◽  
Mohammed Almanei ◽  
Konstantinos Salonitis
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Employee Performance ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Flow Diagrams ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
The Impact

Employee performance is dynamic and can have great impact on the overall performance of any company and its sustainability. A number of factors that can be controlled by the company can affect the employees’ performance. The present paper starts with a thorough literature review for identifying these key driving in order to develop a system dynamics models that will be able to assess different improvement scenarios and initiatives. Based on causal loop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams are developed and solved using system dynamics theory. The model developed can be used for organizations to assess the impact of different improvement initiatives.

scholarly journals Applying system dynamics for outsourcing services in design-build projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Lisse
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Project Outcomes ◽  
Work Completion ◽  
Design Build ◽  
Engineering Work ◽  
Complex Project

This study analysed a system dynamics model for outsourcing engineering services in a large and complex project organisational structure that is typically associated with design-build (DB) project delivery. A literature review indicated that most of the reviewed papers implied the project engineering resources were totally insourced or the authors were silent regarding any resources that were outsourced. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis of various model variables was performed, which indicates that the quality and productivity of the outsourced resources as well as the initial number of assigned experienced engineers significantly impacted the amount and timing of engineering work completion. Project outcomes were also impacted by varying the number of initial and changed engineering tasks. The decision to insource/outsource engineering work on DB projects may have significant cost and time impacts, which should be considered by decision makers.

System Dynamics for Modelling Subway Passenger Flow in the Transportation Sector

2021 ◽  
pp. 147-157
Author(s):  
Arzu Eren Şenaras ◽  
Onur Mesut Şenaras
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Package Program ◽  
Passenger Flows ◽  
Sd Model

Thank to developed SD model, decision makers can create appropriate policy. The importance of passenger numbers in compartments increased due to COVID-19, and managers didn't want to increase passengers in compartments too much. In this study, a model will be developed in Vensim package program. The model will be developed for analyzing passenger flows. Different scenarios can be tested thanks to developed system dynamics model. Subway passenger flow was analyzed via system dynamics. The SD model was developed in Vensim PLE package program. Passenger flow was defined as rate, and stations are defined as stock. Managers would change timing according to time, and effects of these changes can be observed via the model.

Hierarchical Bayesian inference and spatial validation of socio-ecological system dynamics models: participatory modelling for Indigenous smallholder agriculture and food security in Guatemala

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Malard ◽  
Jan Adamowski ◽  
Héctor Tuy ◽  
Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Systems Dynamics ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian Inference ◽  
Dynamics Models

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Systems dynamics modelling is often used as a participatory modelling tool to model the long-term dynamics of socio-ecological systems, as well as to help in developing integrated policy decisions that take into account the unexpected and complex system behaviours that are often caused by the dynamic feedbacks between ecology and society. Actual use of these models in decision-making is, however, hindered by the frequent lack of high-quality temporal data on many key socioeconomic (and environmental) variables, which makes the application of traditional system dynamics model evaluation techniques difficult. This situation is particularly pronounced in the context of many Indigenous communities around the world, regions where improved access to decision support tools such as system dynamics modelling could be of particular use for supporting communities in their quest to make (and have implemented) their own resource management decisions. In the absence of rigorous quantification methods, however, these models are difficult to build and trust.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;In this research, we present a novel methodology for calibrating hard-to-quantify relationships between socioeconomic variables of systems dynamics models. Based on hierarchical Bayesian inference, the methodology allows for the use of spatially explicit (but temporally poor) datasets to infer the quantitative, numerical relationships between socioeconomic variables, even when data in the precise region of interest is very scarce. We present, as a case study, a system dynamics model of small-scale agricultural systems and food security in two different regions of Guatemala (Tz'ol&amp;#246;j Ya' and K'iche'), and analyse the impacts of different proposed policies in the face of socioeconomic shocks and water stress due to projected climate change. The hierarchical Bayesian inference calibration method allowed for the inference of key socioeconomic parameter values in a spatially explicit context to compensate for data scarcity, while spatial validation indicated which regions of the country the model was appropriate for.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Such a methodology, once incorporated into user-friendly system dynamics software, has the potential to facilitate participatory sociohydrological modelling even in quite data-scarce regions where modellers, up until now, have had to rely on educated guesses for the majority of the model's calibration.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals A system dynamics model for supporting decision-makers in irrigation water management

2018 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. 815-824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Pluchinotta ◽  
Alessandro Pagano ◽  
Raffaele Giordano ◽  
Alexis Tsoukiàs
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Irrigation Water Management

Modeling Cultural Transmission of Rituals in Silico: The Advantages and Pitfalls of Agent-Based vs. System Dynamics Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 483-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vojtěch Kaše ◽  
Tomáš Hampejs ◽  
Zdeněk Pospíšil
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Cultural Transmission ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Social Function ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Early Christian ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Dynamics Models

AbstractThis article introduces an agent-based and a system-dynamics model investigating the cultural transmission of frequent collective rituals. It focuses on social function and cognitive attraction as independently affecting transmission. The models focus on the historical context of early Christian meals, where various theoretically inspiring trends in cultural transmission of rituals can be observed. The primary purpose of the article is to contribute to theorizing about cultural transmission of rituals by suggesting a clear operationalization of their social function and cognitive attraction. Furthermore, the article challenges recent trends in the field by providing a theoretically feasible model for how, under certain conditions, cognitive attraction can influence the transmission to a relatively greater extent than social function. In the system dynamics model we reproduce the results of our agent-based model while putting some of our basic operational assumptions under scrutiny. We consider approaching social function and cognitive attraction in isolation as a preliminary but necessary step in the process of creating more complex models of the cultural selection of rituals, where the two aspects will be combined to produce ritual forms with greater correspondence to real-world religious rituals.

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