Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st-century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the ‘unabated warming’ pathway, and three are for the ‘reduced emissions’ pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to an ensemble average of ~3.5 m sea-level equivalent (SLE) by the year 3000 and ~5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ~0.24 m SLE. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project) simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound, corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies, where bedrock rebound acts to slow the rate of ice loss.

Impact of reduced emissions on direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing during COVID–19 lockdown in Europe

Aerosols influence the Earth’s energy balance through direct radiative effects and indirectly by altering the cloud micro-physics. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions dropped considerably when the global COVID–19 pandemic resulted in severe restraints on mobility, production, and public life in spring 2020. Here we assess the effects of these reduced emissions on direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing over Europe, excluding contributions from contrails. We simulate the atmospheric com- position with the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model in a baseline (business as usual) and a reduced emission scenario. The model results are compared to aircraft observations from the BLUESKY aircraft campaign performed in May/June 2020 over Europe. The model agrees well with most of the observations, except for sulfur dioxide, particulate sulfate and nitrate in the upper troposphere, likely due to a somewhat biased representation of stratospheric aerosol chemistry and missing information about volcanic eruptions which could have influenced the campaign. The comparison with a business as usual scenario shows that the largest relative differences for tracers and aerosols are found in the upper troposphere, around the aircraft cruise altitude, due to the reduced aircraft emissions, while the largest absolute changes are present at the surface. We also find an increase in shortwave radiation of 0.327 ± 0.105 Wm−2 at the surface in Europe for May 2020, solely attributable to the direct aerosol effect, which is dominated by decreased aerosol scattering of sunlight, followed by reduced aerosol absorption, caused by lower concentrations of inorganic and black carbon aerosols in the troposphere. A further in- crease in shortwave radiation from aerosol indirect effects was found to be much smaller than its variability. Impacts on ice crystal- and cloud droplet number concentrations and effective crystal radii are found to be negligible.

Extended ISMIP6 projections for the Antarctic ice sheet with the model SICOPOLIS

Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the “unabated warming” pathway, and three are for the “reduced emissions” pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to a 14 experiment average of ∽3.5 m sea-level equivalent by the year 3000 and ∽5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ∽0.24 m sea-level equivalent. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long-term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project)simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies.

Effects of SO2 emissions in Alberta, Canada on lodgepole pine climate-growth relationships

<p>The growth response of trees to climate can be altered by other environmental changes that a tree may face including pollution or fertilization. In this study, the effect of spatial and temporal patterns sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>) emissions on climate-growth relationships of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in two areas of Alberta, Canada was assessed. Twenty tree cores were collected in each of four stands per study area: two near a source of SO<sub>2</sub> emissions (sour gas processing facility) and two far from the source of emissions. To select important climate variables, the average standardized tree ring width of all trees in each area were first compared to monthly average temperature and total precipitation variables. For each important climate variable, response function analysis was conducted between standardized tree ring widths and climate in each of three SO<sub>2</sub> exposure time periods: a period pre-dating any emissions, a period of high emissions, and a more recent period of reduced emissions. Linear mixed models were used to compare response coefficients of tree ring widths to climate between exposure space (near or far from the source of emissions) and exposure time (no emissions, high emissions, reduced emissions) and the interaction between them. The absolute values of predicted ring widths in each exposure space and exposure time in each area were used as a response variable in a linear mixed effects model to assess the effects of SO<sub>2</sub> exposure on the magnitude of tree growth response to climate. SO<sub>2</sub> exposure time was a significant term in all climate-growth relationship models. Exposure space was significant in 13 out of 20 models, and the interaction between exposure time and exposure space was significant in 14 out of 20 models. The effects of exposure time and exposure space on climate-growth relationships were not consistent between climate variables. Overall, tree growth responded most strongly to climate in the high exposure time period. The increase in magnitude of climate-growth relationships in the high SO<sub>2</sub> exposure time period may indicate that trees stressed by sulfur deposition are not able to buffer the effects of climate, and are more susceptible to extreme weather conditions such as drought. However, the response to climate during the high emission period was greater far from the source of emissions than near the source of emissions; This could be because the historical addition of lime to stands near the sour gas processing facilities resulted in less sulfur stress. SO<sub>2</sub> emissions in Alberta may alter climate-growth relationships of lodgepole pine.  </p>

Integrating in situ Measurements and City Scale Modelling to Assess the COVID–19 Lockdown Effects on Emissions and Air Quality in Athens, Greece

The lockdown measures implemented worldwide to slow the spread of the COVID–19 pandemic have allowed for a unique real-world experiment, regarding the impacts of drastic emission cutbacks on urban air quality. In this study we assess the effects of a 7-week (23 March–10 May 2020) lockdown in the Greater Area of Athens, coupling in situ observations with estimations from a meteorology-atmospheric chemistry model. Measurements in central Athens during the lockdown were compared with levels during the pre- and post-lockdown 3-week periods and with respective levels in the four previous years. We examined regulatory pollutants as well as CO2, black carbon (BC) and source-specific BC components. Models were run for pre-lockdown and lockdown periods, under baseline and reduced-emissions scenarios. The in-situ results indicate mean concentration reductions of 30–35% for traffic-related pollutants in Athens (NO2, CO, BC from fossil fuel combustion), compared to the pre-lockdown period. A large reduction (53%) was observed also for the urban CO2 enhancement while the reduction for PM2.5 was subtler (18%). Significant reductions were also observed when comparing the 2020 lockdown period with past years. However, levels rebounded immediately following the lift of the general lockdown. The decrease in measured NO2 concentrations was reproduced by the implementation of the city scale model, under a realistic reduced-emissions scenario for the lockdown period, anchored at a 46% decline of road transport activity. The model permitted the assessment of air quality improvements on a spatial scale, indicating that NO2 mean concentration reductions in areas of the Athens basin reached up to 50%. The findings suggest a potential for local traffic management strategies to reduce ambient exposure and to minimize exceedances of air quality standards for primary pollutants.