Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Performance in Nepal

This paper examines co-integrating relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market performance in Nepal using time series data for the period 1987/88 to 2019/20. This study has used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to identify the co-integrating relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market performance. The stock market performance is measured by market capitalization which is considered as dependent variable and selected macroeconomic factors such as broad money supply measured by M2, economic growth measured by gross domestic product (GDP) and interest rate measured by 91-days Treasury bill rate are considered as explanatory variables. ARDL bounds test reveals that stock market performance is co-integrated with macroeconomic variables. Similarly, result of this paper shows the significant positive impact of economic growth. Further, finding reports a significant negative effect of broad money supply and interest rate on performance of Nepalese stock market in long-run. Finally, this paper concludes that disequilibrium of stock market performance in short-run is corrected by GDP, M2 and IR in the long-run. The policy implication of this paper is in formulation of capital market policy, monetary policy, financial policy and economic policy. Stock market policy makers should consider macroeconomic variables while formulating capital market policy for the better performance of stock market in Nepal.

OPTIMIZING DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN PERSPECTIVE OF RETURN ON EDUCATION IN EAST JAVA: TO SCHOOL, TO WORK, OR TO ENTREPRENEUR?

Human capital highly affects economics productivity. Thus, education plays an important factor in every demographic dividend. This study will estimate the return on education to paid-employment and self-employment in East Java using SAKERNAS 2012. Using Mincerian specification and Sohn model, this study analyzed the baseline model and to analyse further in self-employment. This study will also compare result in East Java with National and other Java province. Results from estimation found that return on education in East Java is generally higher than national, but lower than West Java. As for self-employment, return on education in East Java is lower than paid-employment, but in the lowest magnitude if compared with National and other Java region. Labor market flexibility that analyzed in this study also shows that East Java relatively more flexible. As a matter of opportunity cost, the low return rate of education in East Java demand some adjustment in education and labor market policy to optimize the economic outcome.

COVID-19: A Crisis of Borders

ABSTRACT The public health crisis of COVID-19 has compounded preexisting crises of democratic stability and effective governance, spurring debate about the ability of developed democracies to respond effectively to emergencies confronting their citizens. These crises, much discussed in recent political science, are joined by a further crisis which complicates and reinforces them: A migration crisis. Widespread travel and immigration restrictions instigated the largest and fastest decline in global human mobility in modern history, and COVID-19 may fundamentally change immigration over the longer term. The migration crisis heightens three crucial and preexisting concerns within immigration policy: the role of visa design; the status of undocumented migrants and other migrants without recourse to public funds; and the interaction of immigration and the labor market policy. It could reinforce a rising tide of nationalism and anti-immigrant sentiment, protectionist sentiment within labor-market policy debates, and a K-shaped recovery in migration patterns.

Impact of Changes to Procedures on the Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Forms of Professional Activation in Poland

Active labour market policy is connected with the necessity to account for the funds allocated for it. The conducted analysis forms a part of research on the evaluation of the effects of changes introduced by legal regulations. The aim of this research is to assess the impact of changes to the methodology of calculating on values of the cost and employment effectiveness of basic forms of economic activation in Poland. They were introduced in 2015 in connection with ongoing discussion regarding the effectiveness of the evaluation methods used. The Ministry of Economic Development, Labour and Technology is currently responsible for activating the unemployed in Poland, and funds come from the Labour Fund. The analysis used is the regression discontinuity design. This analysis showed that significant changes occurred only in the slope of the regression line for cost effectiveness after 2015 for both procedures of its calculation. This shows that the new, introduced methods of calculating effectiveness were cosmetic in nature and did not significantly affect their values. A good recommendation for improving the method of evaluating forms of economic activation of the unemployed could be to extend the time of required employment.