Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

Mathematical modeling of the demographic dividend (DD) capture applied in economy.

The purpose of this work is to develop tools and techniques for modeling the capture of the Demographic Dividend. We presented the ordinary differential equation (ODE) system modeling the variation of economically dependent and economically non dependent populations. The system uses natality, natural mortality, infant mortality, migration (incoming and outgoing), and transfers. The mathematical study of this ODE system shows the existence of an equilibrium point whose stability depends on a certain number of system parameters. Numerical simulations of the resulting model were performed using scenarios approach.

Demographic Dividend in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): A Far-Fetched Dream?

This research was set out to assess whether ‘demographic dividend’ is a far-fetched dream for most countries in Sub Saharan Africa. To achieve this aim, the research draws from a wide range of secondary sources, including data from publications as well as past research and evidence gathered from this study shows that the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region is still at the early stage of demographic transition thereby lagging when compared to other regions. The research concluded by aligning with the position that achieving demographic dividend may be a far-fetch dream for most countries in the Sub Saharan African region. Some policy recommendations were made with key emphasis on education, dulling out of modern and safe contraception, bridging the gap of gender inequality and investing in social amenities.

Integration of the Demographic Dividend into Government Plans: A Case of the Kwazulu-Natal Province of South Africa

The Population reference Bureau policy brief, (Gribble and Bremmer, 2012):1) described the demographic dividend as “…the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country’s mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population. With fewer births each year, a country’s young dependent population grows smaller in relation to the working-age population. With fewer people to support, a country has a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth if the right social and economic policies developed and investments made”. Several South Africa based studies have explored age structure and the prospects of a demographic dividend. These studies range from those that explore timing of the dividend to those that investigate readiness to harness the dividend. Three aspects of the demographic dividend are investigated by this research. Firstly, the paper will explore the age structure of KwaZulu-Natal population to ascertain the timing of the age-structure (youth bulge) that is a pre-requisite for the dividend. Secondly, demographic, health and education characteristics that are knows to affect the achievement of the dividend will be examined. Lastly, the extent of integration of the demographic dividend into Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) in the province will be explored.

Key Areas to Economic Takeoff from Demographic Dividend: A Case of Nepal

Rapid demographic change in the context of age structure and basic demographic indicators have created opportunity to accelerate economic growth and development in Nepal. At the time of favorable demographic context, it is required to qualify and mobilize currently existing large volume of active years population to fulfill the mission of sustained economic development. For this, it is necessary to invest on health, education, infrastructure along with creating employment opportunities but such opportunity period is missing out due low attention on social, economic, political and cultural sectors, which may misfortune for Nepal. Focusing on the key areas of economic take off in the declined fertility context, this paper reviews literature related to reaping demographic dividend. Based on secondary data from journal articles, census and Nepal Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) results, descriptive and content analysis method is applied. National Census data from Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and Nepal Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) is taken as reference and some estimation from United Nations (UN) are also taken as requirement. To identify vital areas and situation to support economic take off and support to formulate and implement proper future population policy in Nepal are the main objectives of this article. Coping with socio-economic challenges need to focus on primary area of social development like education, productivity of labor, proper use of remittance to economic take off. Need to open gate for secondary demographic dividend with appropriate policy formulation in the recent context.