Financial Development and Macroeconomic Performance: A Cointegration Approach

The paper tests the existence of long-term relations between all the IMF financial development indices and some macroeconomic performance indicators applying panel cointegration tests in a panel with 46 countries, and in a panel including only the sub-sample of the 27 EU countries over the interval 1990-2019. Overall, there are no significant differences between the results obtained for the whole sample and the panel including only the EU countries. The results obtained clearly point to the existence of cointegration between the financial development indices and the real Gross Domestic Product, as well as with the inflation, the unemployment rate, the current account, and the net international investment position. The results also show that there are no significant differences between the results obtained for the financial institutions and for the financial markets indices. Moreover, the results related to the specific aspects addressed by the IMF indices very well demonstrate that much more important than the simple access to or the depth of the financial institutions and markets is the efficiency of these institutions and markets.

U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks

This paper demonstrates that the measured stock of China's holding of U.S. assets could be much higher than indicated by the U.S. net international investment position data due to unrecorded historical Chinese in ows into an increasingly popular global safe haven asset: U.S. residential real estate. We first use aggregate capital ows data to show that the increase in unrecorded capital in ows in the U.S. balance of payment accounts over the past decade is mainly linked to in ows from China into U.S. housing markets. Then, using a unique web traffic dataset that provides a direct measure of Chinese demand for U.S. housing at the zip code level, we estimate via a difference-in-difference matching framework that house prices in major U.S. cities that are highly exposed to demand from China have on average grown 7 percentage points faster than similar neighborhoods with low exposure over the period 2010-2016. These average excess price growth gaps co-move closely with macro-level measures of U.S. capital in ows from China, and tend to widen following periods of economic stress in China, suggesting that Chinese households view U.S. housing as a safe haven asset.

Structural Analysis of Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Latvia

The aim of this article is to investigate the activity of foreign direct investors in Latvia and find out what is the main source of financing for foreign investors – new investments or reinvested earnings.In order to achieve the set goal and test the hypothesis, the methodology of Sixth Edition of the International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual was used to define the types of foreign direct investment. This methodology was adapted to Latvian data. At the request of the author, Ltd Lursoft IT selected business data on all registered companies with foreign capital in Latvia since 2005 and aggregate data were used in the analysis.Foreign direct investment in Latvia flows mainly in the form of reinvested earnings, due to the profit earned from operating activities in Latvia. While new investments or greenfield investments in equity is lower compared to the amount of reinvested earnings. The results of the study reflect the business results of foreign direct investors in Latvia, as well as their actions in relation to the earned profit from operating activities. These results could be used by the Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Latvia and the Investment and Development Agency of Latvia to improve Latvia’s investment environment and im¬plement a more effective investment attraction strategy.

Djibouti

An external sector statistics (ESS) mission visited Djibouti from January 26–30, 2020. This was the fourth mission under the JSA/AFR project to improve ESS in 17 Francophone African countries. The mission found that significant data on direct investment (DI) have not been incorporated in either the balance of payments or international investment position (IIP) statistics since 2017.

The collaboration between the President of Statistics Poland and the President of the National Bank of Poland – a systemic approach

The aim of the article is to present the systemic foundations of the functioning of official statistics and the central bank. The research is based on the analysis of regulations outlined in the Official Statistics Act and relevant provisions of The Act on the National Bank of Poland. Both the conducting of statistical research and developing monetary and banking statistics, balance of payments and establishing an international investment position require a close collaboration between these two institutions, which also happen to be the largest data ‘reservoirs’ under the Polish legal system. A rational legislator acknowledges the necessity to coordinate the activity of the President of Statistics Poland and the President of the National Bank of Poland in the realm of statistical research. This collaboration is bilateral, based on clearly defined competences and other statutory tasks. It also allows the use of statistical data collected, stored and maintained by both institutions and the fulfillment of their constitutional obligations.

Why did the United States Evolve from the Largest International Creditor in 1980 to the Largest International Debtor in 1990?

Remarkable transformation of the U.S. international investment position occurred over the last 40 years. U.S. net foreign assets were larger than combined net foreign assets of all other creditors. By 1990, foreign-owned U.S. securities and real assets were larger than U.S. owned foreign securities and assets. This change occurred without the U.S. Treasury borrowing in foreign currency and few U.S. firms borrowing, reflecting a surge in foreign purchases of U.S. securities. Inferences from the currency composition of portfolio changes of those who acquired U.S. dollar securities suggest that foreign savers took the initiative on cross-border investment inflows. The U.S. could not have developed a larger capital account surplus after 1980 unless a similar increase in the U.S. current account deficit occurred. The primary factor that led to the U.S. current account deficit increase was the surge in U.S. stocks and other asset prices, resulting in a U.S. household wealth surge and consumption boom. The foreign saving inflow displaced domestic saving. In addition, an increase in the price of the U.S. dollar led to expenditure-switching from U.S. goods to increasingly less expensive foreign goods. When investor demand for U.S. dollar securities declined, the U.S. dollar price fell in 1992, 2002, and 2020 and the price of U.S. dollar securities declined. The paper discusses the source of the change in the U.S. international investment position, the flow of foreign saving to the U.S., cyclical variability in the foreign saving flow to the U.S., and the potential impact of an adjustable parity arrangement.