Forecasting with ARMA models

This paper employs the R software in identifying the most suitable ARMA model for forecasting the growth rate of the exchange rate between the US dollar and a unit of the British pound. The data is systematically split into two distinct periods identified as the in-sample period and the out of sample period. The best model selected for the in-sample period is used to make forecasts for the out of sample period. Both traditional and rolling window forecasting methods are employed. This research uses the MSE, MAE, MAPE and correct sign prediction criterion to compare the forecasting performance of the rolling window forecasting method and the traditional forecasting method. The results obtained suggest that the traditional forecasting method performs better judging by MSE, MAE and MAPE. In other words, the traditional forecasting method is more suitable for predicting the magnitude (i.e., size) by which the US /UK exchange rate changes over time. However, the results also suggest that the rolling window forecasting method performs better based on the correct sign prediction criterion. In other words, the rolling window forecasting method is more appropriate for predicting the changes in the sign of the US /UK exchange rate.

i-Sign: Sign Language Learning Application Via Gamification

Hearing loss is a type of disability where people who suffer from it could not hear a sound or can only listen to a sound with certain levels. People with hearing loss use sign language to communicate with others and to help them in their learning process. For this study, an interview and survey were conducted with teachers and students from SK Pendidikan Khas Melaka and few problems have been identified in the learning spectrum of children with hearing disability. They face difficulties in learning due to the lack of exposure about the correct sign language since young, difficulty in interpreting sign language in the conventional teaching material due to the nature of its static image contents, and hearing loss children are also usually less focused in the learning process and are easily distracted by their surroundings when the class is in session. To solve these problems, i-Sign is developed as a learning application that incorporates simple gamification in its development that could help hearing loss children to learn the alphabet and basic words of sign language. The use of gamification and multimedia elements provide a more interactive and fun learning environment for the students instead of using static contents, and are also used to direct students’ attention to the learning activity making them more focused in the learning process. i-Sign was developed using the ADDIE model which includes the Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluation phases. In the evaluation phase, a usability test was conducted on 8 children with hearing loss to test the acceptance of the user towards this application and 91.89% of the respondents found that the application meets their expectation of the application capability in terms of its effectiveness, efficiency and user satisfaction. This shows that gamification can be used as an alternative learning material for hearing loss children and help expose the correct sign language to them. The application can also be used by the public that wants to learn about sign language.

Determinants of Greenfield emerging market outward FDI into the UK

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of Greenfield emerging market (EM) outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) into the UK, a developed market (DM) host. Despite the increasing significance of EM OFDI, this particular theme of EM OFDI to a DM host has received relatively little attention from researchers. This paper seeks to address this shortfall. Design/methodology/approach Considering the distinctiveness of EM OFDI in its firm-specific characteristics, given circumstances and motivations, this paper applies adapted “Resource-based view (RBV)” framework and institutional theory to build a theoretical framework. A range of hypotheses regarding “strategic-asset seeking”, “market seeking” and “institution seeking” motivations of EM OFDI, which reflect both “pull factors” (advantages in hosts) and “push factors” (disadvantages at home), were then developed. Using panel data for the years 2003–2012, the research questions were analysed using a sample of the then most important EM source countries which had undertaken Greenfield FDI into the UK. Findings The analysis results supported the hypotheses that strategic-asset seeking and institution seeking motivations were important in determining EM OFDI to the UK, with the coefficients of relevant variables showing statistical significance and expected sign (i.e. positive). However, the hypothesis on market seeking motivation of EM OFDI cannot be supported as the coefficient of the relevant variable, whilst showing the expected sign, had a statistically insignificant coefficient. Amongst the three control variables, the source countries’ exports and imports as a percentage of GDP was statistically significant and had the correct sign whilst, the UK’s share of intra-EU trade, whilst statistically significant, had the opposite sign to that expected. The third control variable, the exchange rate was not statistically significant, though it had the correct sign. Originality/value This paper provides an adjusted theoretical framework for the analysis of EM OFDI to DM with a novel application of institutional theory and RBV. It also qualifies and extends existing works on EM OFDI by including a wider range of EM source countries and DM hosts with empirical analysis results as well as theoretical suggestions. In addition, the paper offers up a range of policy implications for DM hosts.

ORDERING BEHAVIOR OF FCC AND HCP ALLOYS IN Ni-Hf AND Re-Ti SYSTEMS

The concentration dependence of atomic short range order (SRO) has been studied in Ni 100-x Hf x and Re 100-x Ti x alloys (where x = 2, 5, 10, 15, 20 at.%) using the framework of transition metal model pseudopotential (TMMP). The ordering energies and Warren–Cowley SRO parameters were calculated for the Ni-Hf and Re-Ti alloys. It was found that this model predicted the correct sign of SRO for Ni 100-x Hf x system but failed in the case of Re 100-x Ti x alloys.

COSMOLOGY OF DILATONIC BRANE WORLD

We study cosmological solutions in the dilatonic brane world models. The effective four-dimensional equations on the brane are analyzed for the models with one positive tension brane and two branes with tensions of opposite signs. Just as in the non-dilatonic brane case, the conventional Friedmann equations of the four-dimensional universe are reproduced to the leading order in matter energy density for the model with one brane and the introduction of a radion potential is required in order to reproduce the Friedmann equations with the correct sign for the model with two branes.

Pyrochlores. X. Madelung energies of pyrochlores and defect fluorites

Electrostatic (Madelung) lattice energies have been calculated for a wide range of compounds A2B2X6Y with the pyrochlore-type structure. The cases of disorder and partial disorder on the non-metal sites have been examined, as well as the inverse case, where Y is a positive ion. The results of the calculations are compared with those for defect fluorite structure and an attempt is made to relate them to the conditions under which the pyrochlore phase is found. The effect of the site potential in restricting the existence boundaries of the pyrochlore phase is examined, as the potential must have the correct sign relative to the charge occupying the site. Alternative pyrochlore arrangements in which the 8(b) or 32(e) equipoints are occupied have also been explored.