Families of Generalized Quasisymmetry Models: A ϕ-Divergence Approach

The quasisymmetry (QS) model for square contingency tables is revisited, highlighting properties and features on the basis of its alternative definitions. More parsimonious QS-type models, such as the ordinal QS model for ordinal classification variables and models based on association models (AMs) with homogeneous row and column scores, are discussed. All these models are linked to the local odds ratios (LOR). QS-type models and AMs were extended in the literature for generalized odds ratios other than LOR. Furthermore, in an information-theoretic context, they are expressed as distance models from a parsimonious reference model (the complete symmetry for QS and the independence for AMs), while they satisfy closeness properties with respect to Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. Replacing the KL by ϕ divergence, flexible classes of QS-type models for LOR, AMs for LOR, and AMs for generalized odds ratios were generated. However, special QS-type models that are based on homogeneous AMs for LOR have not been extended to ϕ-divergence-based classes so far, or the QS-type models for generalized odds ratios. In this work, we develop these missing extensions, and discuss QS-type models and their generalizations in depth. These flexible families enrich the modeling options, leading to models of better fit and sound interpretation, as illustrated by representative examples.

Crash Injury Severity Prediction Using an Ordinal Classification Machine Learning Approach

In many related works, nominal classification algorithms ignore the order between injury severity levels and make sub-optimal predictions. Existing ordinal classification methods suffer rank inconsistency and rank non-monotonicity. The aim of this paper is to propose an ordinal classification approach to predict traffic crash injury severity and to test its performance over existing machine learning classification methods. First, we compare the performance of the neural network, XGBoost, and SVM classifiers in injury severity prediction. Second, we utilize a severity category-combination method with oversampling to relieve the class-imbalance problem prevalent in crash data. Third, we take advantage of probability calibration and the optimal probability threshold moving to improve the prediction ability of ordinal classification. The proposed approach can satisfy the rank consistency and rank monotonicity requirement and is proved to be superior to other ordinal classification methods and nominal classification machine learning by statistical significance test. Important factors relating to injury severity are selected based on their permutation feature importance scores. We find that converting severity levels into three classes, minor injury, moderate injury, and serious injury, can substantially improve the prediction precision.

Effect of the Profile of the Decision Maker in the Search for Solutions in the Decision-Making Process

Many real-world optimization problems involving several conflicting objective functions frequently appear in current scenarios and it is expected they will remain present in the future. However, approaches combining multi-objective optimization with the incorporation of the decision maker’s (DM’s) preferences through multi-criteria ordinal classification are still scarce. In addition, preferences are rarely associated with a DM’s characteristics; the preference selection is arbitrary. This paper proposes a new hybrid multi-objective optimization algorithm called P-HMCSGA (preference hybrid multi-criteria sorting genetic algorithm) that allows the DM’s preferences to be incorporated in the optimization process’ early phases and updated into the search process. P-HMCSGA incorporates preferences using a multi-criteria ordinal classification to distinguish solutions as good and bad; its parameters are determined with a preference disaggregation method. The main feature of P-HMCSGA is the new method proposed to associate preferences with the characterization profile of a DM and its integration with ordinal classification. This increases the selective pressure towards the desired region of interest more in agreement with the DM’s preferences specified in realistic profiles. The method is illustrated by solving real-size multi-objective PPPs (project portfolio problem). The experimentation aims to answer three questions: (i) To what extent does allowing the DM to express their preferences through a characterization profile impact the quality of the solution obtained in the optimization? (ii) How sensible is the proposal to different profiles? (iii) How much does the level of robustness of a profile impact the quality of final solutions (this question is related with the knowledge level that a DM has about his/her preferences)? Concluding, the proposal fulfills several desirable characteristics of a preferences incorporation method concerning these questions.