Forecast of Economic Tight Oil and Gas Production in Permian Basin

We adopt a physics-guided, data-driven method to predict the most likely future production from the largest tight oil and gas deposits in North America, the Permian Basin. We first divide the existing 53,708 horizontal hydrofractured wells into 36 spatiotemporal well cohorts based on different reservoir qualities and completion date intervals. For each cohort, we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics to the annual production and calculate the means to construct historical well prototypes. Using the physical scaling method, we extrapolate these well prototypes for several more decades. Our hybrid, physico-statistical prototypes are robust enough to history-match the entire production of the Permian mudstone formations. Next, we calculate the infill potential of each sub-region of the Permian and schedule the likely future drilling programs. To evaluate the profitability of each infill scenario, we conduct a robust economic analysis. We estimate that the Permian tight reservoirs contain 54–62 billion bbl of oil and 246–285 trillion scf of natural gas. With time, Permian is poised to be not only the most important tight oil producer in the U.S., but also the most important tight gas producer, surpassing the giant Marcellus shale play.

Accessibility of Pores to Methane in New Albany Shale Samples of Varying Maturity Determined Using SANS and USANS

The accessibility of pores to methane has been investigated in Devonian New Albany Shale Formation early-mature (Ro = 0.50%) to post-mature (Ro = 1.40%) samples. A Marcellus Shale Formation sample was included to expand the maturation range to Ro 2.50%. These are organic matter-rich rocks with total organic carbon (TOC) values of 3.4 to 14.4% and porosity values of 2.19 to 6.88%. Contrast matching small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) and ultra-small angle neutron scattering (USANS) techniques were used to generate porosity-related data before and after pressure cycling under hydrostatic (in a vacuum and at 500 bar of deuterated methane) and uniaxial stress (0 to ca. 350 bar) conditions. Our results showed that the accessible porosity was small for the samples studied, ranging from zero to 2.9%. No correlation between the accessible porosity and TOC or mineralogical composition was revealed, and the most likely explanation for porosity variation was related to the thermal transformation of organic matter and hydrocarbon generation. Pressure caused improvements in accessible porosity for most samples, except the oil window sample (Ro = 0.84%). Our data show that densification of methane occurs in nanopores, generally starting at diameters smaller than 20 nm, and that the distribution of methane density is affected by pressure cycling.

Effects of Carbonate Minerals on Shale-Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid Interactions in the Marcellus Shale

Natural gas extracted from tight shale formations, such as the Marcellus Shale, represents a significant and developing front in energy exploration. By fracturing these formations using pressurized fracturing fluid, previously unobtainable hydrocarbon reserves may be tapped. While pursuing this resource, hydraulic fracturing operations leave chemically complex fluids in the shale formation for at least two weeks. This provides a substantial opportunity for the hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) to react with the shale formation at reservoir temperature and pressure. In this study, we investigated the effects of the carbonates on shale-HFF reactions with a focus on the Marcellus Shale. We performed autoclave experiments at high temperature and pressure reservoir conditions using a carbonate-rich and a decarbonated or carbonate-free version of the same shale sample. We observed that carbonate minerals buffer the pH of the solution, which in turn prevents clay dissolution. Carbonate and bicarbonate ions also scavenge reactive oxidizing species (ROS), which prevents oxidation of shale organic matter and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Carbonate-free samples also show higher pyrite dissolution compared to the carbonate-rich sample due to chelation reactions. This study demonstrates how carbonate minerals (keeping all other variables constant) affect shale-HFF reactions that can potentially impact porosity, microfracture integrity, and the release of heavy metals and volatile organic contaminants in the produced water.

Impact of the Cluster Spacing on Hydraulic Fracture Conductivity and Productivity of a Marcellus Shale Horizontal Well

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the hydraulic fracturing treatment design, including cluster spacing and fracturing fluid volume on the hydraulic fracture properties and consequently, the productivity of a horizontal Marcellus Shale well with multi-stage fractures. The availability of a significant amount of advanced technical information from the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (MSEEL) provided an opportunity to perform an integrated analysis to gain valuable insight into optimizing fracturing treatment and the gas recovery from Marcellus shale. The available technical information from a horizontal well at MSEEL includes well logs, image logs (both vertical and lateral), diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT), fracturing treatment data, microseismic recording during the fracturing treatment, production logging data, and production data. The analysis of core data, image logs, and DFIT provided the necessary data for accurate prediction of the hydraulic fracture properties and confirmed the presence and distribution of natural fractures (fissures) in the formation. Furthermore, the results of the microseismic interpretation were utilized to adjust the stress conditions in the adjacent layers. The predicted hydraulic fracture properties were then imported into a reservoir simulation model, developed based on the Marcellus Shale properties, to predict the production performance of the well. Marcellus Shale properties, including porosity, permeability, adsorption characteristics, were obtained from the measurements on the core plugs and the well log data. The Quanta Geo borehole image log from the lateral section of the well was utilized to estimate the fissure distribution s in the shale. The measured and published data were utilized to develop the geomechnical factors to account for the hydraulic fracture conductivity and the formation (matrix and fissure) permeability impairments caused by the reservoir pressure depletion during the production. Stress shadowing and the geomechanical factors were found to play major roles in production performance. Their inclusion in the reservoir model provided a close agreement with the actual production performance of the well. The impact of stress shadowing is significant for Marcellus shale because of the low in-situ stress contrast between the pay zone and the adjacent zones. Stress shadowing appears to have a significant impact on hydraulic fracture properties and as result on the production during the early stages. The geomechanical factors, caused by the net stress changes have a more significant impact on the production during later stages. The cumulative gas production was found to increase as the cluster spacing was decreased (larger number of clusters). At the same time, the stress shadowing caused by the closer cluster spacing resulted in a lower fracture conductivity which in turn diminished the increase in gas production. However, the total fracture volume has more of an impact than the fracture conductivity on gas recovery. The analysis provided valuable insight for optimizing the cluster spacing and the gas recovery from Marcellus shale.