Forecasting Internally Displaced Population Migration Patterns in Syria and Yemen

ABSTRACTObjectives:Armed conflict has contributed to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when IDPs will migrate to an area remains a major challenge for aid delivery organizations. We sought to develop an IDP migration forecasting framework that could empower humanitarian aid groups to more effectively allocate resources during conflicts.Methods:We modeled monthly IDP migration between provinces within Syria and within Yemen using data on food prices, fuel prices, wages, location, time, and conflict reports. We compared machine learning methods with baseline persistence methods of forecasting.Results:We found a machine learning approach that more accurately forecast migration trends than baseline persistence methods. A random forest model outperformed the best persistence model in terms of root mean square error of log migration by 26% and 17% for the Syria and Yemen datasets, respectively.Conclusions:Integrating diverse data sources into a machine learning model appears to improve IDP migration prediction. Further work should examine whether implementation of such models can enable proactive aid allocation for IDPs in anticipation of forecast arrivals.

An audit of healthcare provision in internally displaced population camps in Nigeria

Background Armed conflict in Nigeria resulted in more than 2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). IDPs live in poor conditions lacking basic resources with variable provision across different locations. This audit aimed to determine the health-related resources available to IDPs in camp-like settings in Nigeria and whether these met international standards. Methods Using a cross-sectional study approach, information was collected in nine camps across seven states from camp managers, and direct observation in September–October 2016. The Sphere minimum standards in humanitarian crises were used as the audit standards. Findings The 5 of 15 assessed standards were met to some extent, including the availability of water and shelter. Sanitation and vaccination were unmet in five camps, with severe overcrowding in five camps, and inadequate waste disposal in all camps. Health programme implementation was uneven, and especially poor in self-settled and dispersed settlements. Conclusion Inequality in distribution of humanitarian support was observed across different settings, which could lead to a higher likelihood of water, food and air-related diseases and thereby, a poorer quality of life for IDPs. Ensuring standardized health assessments could promote a more even distribution of resources across IDP locations.

Assessment of a membrane drinking water filter in an emergency setting

The performance and acceptability of the NeroxTM membrane drinking water filter were evaluated among an internally displaced population in Pakistan. The membrane filter and a control ceramic candle filter were distributed to over 3,000 households. Following a 6-month period, 230 households were visited and filter performance and use were assessed. Only 6% of the visited households still had a functioning filter, and the removal performance ranged from 80 to 93%. High turbidity in source water (irrigation canals), together with high temperatures and large family size were likely to have contributed to poor performance and uptake of the filters.

(A171) Daily Crude Mortality Rate (DCMR) as an Indicator to Measure the Success of Provision of Services to Internally Displaced Population (IDP) in Sri Lanka

BackgroundSri Lanka's 28 year protracted civil conflict between the government forces and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the North of country saw dramatic end by May 2009 when the military forces succeeded in crushing the LTTE. Around 300,000 people were displaced due to the conflict and they were settled in welfare villages established in the North.DiscussionThe Government of Sri Lanka working in partnership with all other actors mounted a major humanitarian response to address the needs of the war displaced population. The Ministry of Health took a leading role in coordinating the health care programs for the Internally Displaced Population(IDP).ObservationsHigher morbidity and mortality observed during early phase of settlement of IDPs was due to the results of two scenarios, one being the conflict situation and its direct consequences that have caused injuries, disabilities and mental trauma among the population. The second being the result of the collapse of the health system in conflict affected areas, long period of displacement of people and the disruption of social structures that have led to the indirect consequences of increase of infectious diseases and worsening of chronic diseases. Ministry of Health used Daily Crude Mortality Rate (DCMR) to measure the success of the response. According to the Sphere Project guidelines that developed a set of minimum standards in a disaster situation, the DCMR should be 0.25 per 10 000 population for South East Asia. The emergency threshold level is 0.5 per 10 000 per day for this region.ConclusionsOf the number of people reaching the IDP welfare villages in early stages of emergency phase in May, DCMR averaged to 0.7. The figure settled to less than 0.5 per 10000 in June 2009. Thereafter daily DCMR remained less than 0.5 indicating success of the provision of care for IDPS.