Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique

Mount Pelée (Martinique) is one of the most active volcanoes in the Lesser Antilles arc with more than 34 magmatic events in the last 24,000 years, including the deadliest eruption of the 20th century. The current volcanic hazard map used in the civil security plan puts the emphasis on the volcanic hazard close to the volcano. This map is however based on an incomplete eruptive history and does not take into account the variability of the expected source conditions (mass eruption rate, total erupted mass, and grain-size distribution) or the wind effect on ash dispersal. We propose here to refine the volcanic hazard map for tephra fallout by using the 2-D model of ash dispersal HAZMAP. We first simulate the maximum expected eruptive scenario at Mount Pelée (i.e., the P3 eruption) using a seasonal wind profile. Building upon the good agreement with field data, we compute probability maps based on this maximum expected scenario, which show that tephra fallout hazard could threaten not only areas close to the volcano but also the southern part of Martinique. We then use a comprehensive approach based on 16 eruptive scenarios that include new field constraints obtained in the recent years on the past Plinian eruptions of Mount Pelée volcano. Each eruptive scenario considers different values of total erupted mass and mass eruption rate, and is characterized by a given probability of occurrence estimated from the refined eruptive history of the volcano. The 1979-2019 meteorological ERA-5 database is used to further take into account the daily variability of winds. These new probability maps show that the area of probable total destruction is wider when considering the 16 scenarios compared to the maximum expected scenario. The southern part of Martinique, although less threatened than when considering the maximum expected scenario, would still be impacted both by tephra fallout and by its high dependence on the water and electrical network carried from the northern part of the island. Finally, we show that key infrastructures in Martinique (such as the international airport) have a non-negligible probability of being impacted by a future Plinian eruption of the Mount Pelée. These results provide strong arguments for and will support significant and timely reconceiving of the emergency procedures as the local authorities have now placed Mount Pelée volcano on alert level yellow (vigilance) based on increased seismicity and tremor-type signals.

Unraveling the Holocene Eruptive History of Flores Island (Azores) Through the Analysis of Lacustrine Sedimentary Records

Lacustrine sequences from active volcanic settings usually hold a rich and continuous record of tephra layers, providing a critical source of information to reconstruct a most complete eruptive history of a region. Lake sedimentary records on volcanic islands are particularly useful as the typical small size of these islands and their steep subaerial and submarine slopes lead to a lower preservation of potential erodible pyroclastic deposits. Here we explore the lacustrine sedimentary record of Lagoa da Lomba, a crater lake in the central upland area of Flores Island (Azores), to gain insight into the recent eruptive history of this island. The strategic location of Lagoa da Lomba, half distance between the two clusters of recent volcanic activity of the island, together with its long-lasting record, back to 23.52 cal kyr BP, makes this lake a privileged site to investigate the Holocene volcanic history of Flores. Based on a detailed stratigraphic characterization of sediments from a lake transect of three cores, supported by glass shard geochemistry and radiocarbon dating, we recognized four Holocene eruptive events taking place between 6.28 and 2.36 cal kyr BP, demonstrating that the Holocene volcanic activity at Flores Island may have lasted longer than previously reported. Glass shard geochemistry from the different tephra layers suggests three populations, basaltic to trachybasaltic in composition, where the last eruption is the least evolved endmember. Two of the four eruptive events correlate with subaerially-exposed pyroclastic sequences, in terms of stratigraphy and geochemistry. The most recent event recorded at Lagoa da Lomba was constrained to 3.66 – 2.36 cal kyr BP and linked to an eruption sourced from Lagoa Comprida Volcanic System. The second most recent eruptive event was sourced from Lagoa Funda Volcanic System and dated at 3.66 cal kyr BP. Our observations show that Flores experienced vigorous volcanic activity during the Late Holocene. Therefore, contrary to what is assumed, the possibility of future eruptions should be properly considered, and the volcanic hazard here should not be underestimated. Moreover, we highlight the importance of tephrostratigraphy in recent lake sediments to reconstruct past volcanic activity, especially at small volcanic islands, such as Flores, where exposure is poor due to erosion within the limited subaerial area and the dense vegetation.

A Multidisciplinary Investigation Into the Eruptive Style, Processes, and Duration of a Cascades Back-Arc Tholeiitic Basalt: A Case Study of the Brushy Butte Flow Field, Northern California, United States

The Cascades back-arc in northern California is dominated by monogenetic tholeiitic basalts that erupted throughout the Pleistocene. Elucidating their eruptive history and processes is important for understanding potential future eruptions here. We focus on the well-exposed monogenetic volcano that emplaced the Brushy Butte flow field, which constructed a ∼150 m tall edifice, has flow lobes up to >10 km long, and in total covers ∼150 km2 with an eruptive volume of 3.5 km3. We use a multidisciplinary approach of field mapping, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, geochronology, and lidar imagery to unravel the eruptive history and processes that emplaced this flow field. Tholeiitic basalts in northern California have diverse surface morphology and vegetation cover but similar petrographic appearances, which makes them hard to distinguish in the field. Geochemistry and paleomagnetism offer an independent means of distinguishing tholeiitic basalts. Brushy Butte flow field lavas are similar in major-oxide and trace-element abundances but differ from adjacent tholeiitic basalts. This is also apparent in remanent magnetic directions. Additionally, paleomagnetism indicates that the flow field was emplaced during a geologically brief time interval (10–20 years), which 36Cl cosmogenic dating puts at 35.7 ± 1.7 ka. Lidar imagery shows that these flows erupted from at least 28 vents encompassing multiple scoria cones, spatter cones, and craters. Flows can be grouped into four pulses using stratigraphic position and volume. Pulse 1 is the most voluminous, comprising eight eruptions and ∼2.3 km3. Each subsequent pulse started rapidly but decayed quickly, and each successive pulse erupted less lava (i.e., 2.3 km3 for pulse 1, 0.6 km3 for pulse 2, 0.3 km3 for pulse 3, and 0.2 km3 for pulse 4). Many of these flows host well-established lava channels and levees (with channel breakouts) that lead to lava fans, with some flows hosting lava ponds. Similar flow features from tholeiitic eruptions elsewhere demonstrate that these morphologies generally occur over weeks, months, or longer (e.g., Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption at K–llauea, Hawaiʻi). This multidisciplinary study shows the range of eruptive styles and durations of a Cascades back-arc eruption and illustrates how potential future tholeiitic eruptive activity in the western United States might progress.

Probabilistic multi – hazard assessment at an active but under-monitored volcano: Ceboruco, Mexico

We conduct a probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment for Ceboruco volcano (Mexico) using PyBetVH, an e-tool based on the Bayesian event tree (BET) methodology. We use available information about the volcano, including eruptive history, numerical and theoretical models, to generate probability maps. Our hazard assessment accounts for the variability of eruption types expected at Ceboruco and the hazardous volcanic phenomena these eruptions generate. We create a generic event tree for Ceboruco to account for magmatic and amagmatic activity. For a magmatic eruption, we choose three scenarios: i) small (effusive), ii) medium (vulcanian/subPlinian) and iii) large (Plinian) based on the Holocene history of the volcano; with their related hazardous phenomena: ballistics, tephra fallout, pyroclastic density currents, lahars and lava flows. Despite numerous eruptions in the latest Holocene and efforts by several university and government groups to create and sustain a monitoring network, Ceboruco remains under-monitored, meaning that it is intermittently rather than continuously monitored by dedicated groups. With no consistent monitoring data available, we look at the geology and the eruptive history to inform our prior models. We estimate the probability of a magmatic eruption within the next time window (1 year) of ~ 0.002. We show how the BET creates higher probabilities in the absence of monitoring data. That is, there is a cost in terms of higher probabilities and higher uncertainties for having not yet developed a sustained volcano monitoring network. We present absolute probability maps (unconditional in terms of eruption size and vent location) for a magmatic eruption at Ceboruco volcano. With PyBetVH we estimate and visualize the uncertainties associated with each hazard map. Our intent is that hazard maps and uncertainties will be useful to local authorities who need to understand the hazard maps when considering the development of long-term urban and land-use planning and short-term crisis management strategies, and to the scientific community in their efforts to sustain monitoring of this active volcano.

Explaining the continuing inflation of Montserrat

<p>Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat in the West Indies showed five episodes of magma extrusion and as many pauses in its 25 years of volcanic activity. This eruptive behaviour exhibited cyclic deformation pattern where extrusive “phases” showed island-wide deflation and all “pauses” have been linked to inflation, the last of which remains ongoing. Several models have been developed over the years; all based on magma intrusion and extrusion, into, or from one or several reservoirs, respectively. Addressing the entire eruptive history, we explore in this presentation several alternative models ranging from the continuous magma influx at depth to the extreme case where intrusion of fresh magma has ceased years ago, while the inflation is continuing. Both, purely elastic and visco-elastic rheologies are explored.</p>