Real estate risk, yield modelling and market sentiment: the impact on pricing in European office markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony McGough ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Office Markets ◽  
Risk Pricing ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.

Economic stress drains CIS sovereign wealth funds

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Economic Stress ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Face ◽  
National Welfare ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Welfare Fund

Significance Concern about the need to preserve one of the SWFs to support the pension system is probably a major reason behind the rejection. The Ministry of Economic Development had already approved part of the 1.3 trillion ruble (25 billion dollar) transfer to Rosneft from the National Welfare Fund. The intra-ministry dispute highlights how state firms are looking to SWFs for unconventional government financial support in the face of sanctions-driven stress on Moscow's budget and restricted access to international capital markets. Impacts SWFs are helping to offset the impact of low oil prices and regional turmoil. The anti-crisis effort is boosting spending on infrastructure. Weaker exchange rates will increase the value of resources in domestic currencies.

Feedback trading strategies in international real estate markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrysanthi Balomenou ◽  
Vassilios Babalos ◽  
Dimitrios Vortelinos ◽  
Athanasios Koulakiotis
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose Motivated by recent evidence that securitized real estate returns exhibit higher levels of predictability than stock market returns and that feedback trading (FT) can induce returns autocorrelation and market volatility, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of FT strategies on long-term market volatility of eight international real estate markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, Japan and Hong Kong). Design/methodology/approach Assuming that the return autocorrelation may vary over time and the impact of positive feedback trading (PFT) or negative feedback trading (NFT) could be a function of return volatility, the authors use a combination of a FT model and a fractionally integrated Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Findings The results are mixed, revealing that both PFT and NFT strategies persist. Specifically, the authors detect PFT in the real estate markets of France, Hong Kong and Italy as opposed to the real estate markets of Australia, Germany, Japan and Sweden where NFT was present. A noteworthy exception is the UK real estate market, with important and rational FT strategies to sustain. With respect to the long-term volatility persistence, this seems to capture the mean reversion of real estate returns in the UK and Hong Kong markets. In general, the results are not consistent with those reported in previous studies because NFT dominates PFT in the majority of real estate markets under consideration. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is the investigation of the link between short-term PFT or NFT and long-term volatility in eight international real estate markets, symmetrically. Particular attention has been given to the link between short-term FT and long-term volatility, by means of a fractionally integrated GARCH approach, a symmetric one. Moreover, investigating the relationship between returns’ volatility and investors’ strategies based on FT entails significant implications because real estate assets offer a good alternative investment for many investors and speculators.

Credit expansion, state ownership and capital structure of Chinese real estate companies

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfu Shen ◽  
Xianting Yin
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Credit Expansion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Credit Supply ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Expansion Period

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of the credit expansion in 2009 and 2010 in China on the capital structure of listed real estate companies. Design/methodology/approach – Chinese listed real estate companies are divided into two groups, state-owned and non-state-owned, because their access to credit markets have different priority to state-owned banks that dominate bank lending. The difference-in-differences approach is employed to test the impact of changes in leverage ratios and loan ratios before and after the credit expansion period in state-owned firms and non-state-owned firms. Findings – Using quarterly panel regressions, the authors find that during the credit expansion period, state-owned companies exhibit a relatively greater increase in leverage ratios than non-state-owned firms. State-owned firms have greater increases in book leverage ratios, market leverage ratios and long-term debt ratios by 5.2, 4.9 and 1.1 per cent, respectively. It is also shown that loan ratios have increased more in state-owned firms than non-state-owned firms during the credit expansion period. Research limitations/implications – The paper explores only the impacts of credit expansion on capital structure of listed real estate firms in China. Further studies can be conducted to investigate the impact of credit supply on corporate investment decisions of real estate firms and on real estate markets. Practical implications – The findings can help explain the surge in land and housing prices after 2008 in China. Deng et al. (2015) find that state-owned real estate firms paid more for land price than non-state-owned firms, which contributed to upward pressure on housing prices. This paper shows that such “over-investment” may be due to the increase of debt financing and availability of bank loans to real estate firms. Thus the credit market can affect real estate markets through debt financing at company level. Originality/value – This paper is the first to investigate the impact of credit supply on capital structure of real estate companies, and presents evidence of the importance of credit supply as a determinant of capital structure.

scholarly journals How does liquidity in the financial market affect the real estate market yields?

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyung-Min Kim ◽  
Geon Kim ◽  
Sotiris Tsolacos
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Office Markets ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Excess Liquidity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeAfter the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the impact of expanded liquidity in the financial market has drawn attention. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between liquidity in financial markets and office markets across Asian countries. In particular, the research not only examines the effect of normal liquidity on real estate markets, but also the effects of excess liquidity are specifically highlighted.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses panel estimation utilizing quarterly data from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2015. Taking both time and location dimensions into account allows for a more precise estimate of the relationship between liquidity and office market’s yields.FindingsPer the empirical outcome, an increasing excess liquidity tends to decelerate the value of office yields in six major Asian office market centers due to the positive effect on commercial real estate value. This effect is also identified by comparing the difference between the level of fitted yields and actual yields.Practical implicationsThe results enhance the understanding of commercial real estate yield determinants. Furthermore, the results can be used to assess the impacts of liquidity on major office markets in Asia.Originality/valueThis paper attempts to uncover the impact of liquidity in financial markets on the office market yields. To better understand the relationship, the concept of excess liquidity is adopted and further exploration of each office market is conducted by comparing the fitted yields, which is computed considering the effects of excess liquidity on yield levels and actual yields.

A longitudinal study of the impact of the Sydney Olympics on real estate markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang (Steven) Lu ◽  
Yupin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Olympic Games ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games on the residential real estate markets of the host city during the bidding, pre-Olympic and post-Olympic periods. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a difference-in-differences model to analyze the transaction prices for all properties in New South Wales, Australia for the period from 1980 to 2007. Findings – The paper finds that the impact on real estate markets varies across different suburbs in the host city and over time. The real estate markets of host suburbs experience substantially higher growth during the bidding and pre-Olympic periods but not during the post-Olympic period. However, the property prices in non-host suburbs in the host city increase at a higher rate during the pre- and post-Olympic periods but not during the bidding period. Originality/value – This study offers insights into the long-term impact of the Olympic Games on host suburbs and non-host suburbs in the host city during different periods by analyzing a large longitudinal data set over a period of 27 years.

scholarly journals Capital flows and office markets in major global cities

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olawumi Fadeyi ◽  
Stanley McGreal ◽  
Michael McCord ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
International Capital Flows ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Office Markets ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Short Run

PurposeOffice markets and particularly international financial centres over the past decade have experienced rapid financialisation, developments and indeed changes in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) landscape. Importantly, the volume and types of international capital flows have witnessed more foreign actors and vehicles entering into the investment landscape with the concentration of investment intensifying within key financial centres. This paper examines the interaction of international real estate capital flows in the London, New York and Tokyo office markets between 2007 and 2017.Design/methodology/approachUsing Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data comprising over 5,700 office property transactions equating to $563bn between 2007 and 2017, the direct global capital flows into the London, New York and Tokyo office markets are assessed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Further, Granger causality tests are examined to analyse the short-run interaction of international real estate capital flows into these three major office markets.FindingsBy assessing the relativity of internal to external investments in these three central business district (CBD) office markets, differences in market dynamics are highlighted. The London office market is shown to be highly dependent on international flows and the USA, the foremost source of cross-border investment on the global stage. The cointegration and causality analysis indicate that cross-border real estate investment flows in these markets (and financial centres) show both long- and short-run relationships and suggest that the London office market remains more distinct and the most reliant on international capital flows with a wider geographical spread of investment activities and investor types. In the case of New York and Tokyo, these markets appear to be driven by more domestic investment activity and capital seemingly due to subtle factors pertaining to investor home bias, risk aversion and diversification strategies between the markets in the aftermath of the GFC.Originality/valueGiven the importance of the CBD offices in London, New York and Tokyo as an asset class for institutional investors, this paper provides some insights as to their level of connection and the interaction of the international capital flows into these three major cities.

Pemex downgrades hit AMLO’s economic vision for Mexico

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Knell

Subject Pemex downgrades Significance Ratings agency Fitch on June 6 downgraded the bonds issued by state-owned oil firm Pemex to BB+ from BBB-, pushing the rating into ‘speculative grade’ or ‘junk’ territory. The move came a day after Fitch downgraded the bonds of the federal government by one notch, to BBB from BBB+, citing the impact of Pemex’s financial prospects upon those of the government. Moody’s shifted its outlook for the government’s debt from stable to negative but maintained its A3 rating. Impacts The possibility of further downgrades will be a permanent shadow on the government’s economic actions at least until 2020. Any downgrading would have an impact on the borrowing costs of Mexican private sector companies in international capital markets. An abrupt fall in oil prices could be a death knell for Pemex, and would deal a significant blow to the exchequer.

scholarly journals Pricing risk and its use in modelling real estate market yields

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 419-433
Author(s):  
Tony McGough ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Risk Measurements

Purpose In the light of past financial and economic turmoil, there has been a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. This has impacted on the pricing of property assets, partly through market sentiment and particularly concerning risk. It also limits modelling accuracy model accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to create a new variable and model to enhance analysis of what drives real estate yields incorporating market sentiment to risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper specifically considers the modelling of property pricing within a volatile economic environment. The theoretical context begins by analysing the relationship between property yields and government bonds. The analytical context then moves on to specifically include a measurement of risk which stresses its role and importance in investment markets since the Global Financial Crisis. The model thus incorporates macroeconomic and real estate data, together with an international risk multiplier, which is calculated within the paper. Findings The paper finds the use of measurements of market sentiment and risk are more powerful tools for modelling yields than previous techniques alone. Research limitations/implications This is an initial paper outlining the creation of sentiment and risk measurements in the financial market and showing an example of its application to a commercial real estate market. The implication is that this could add a major new explanatory variable to modelling of yields. Practical implications The paper highlights the importance of risk in the pricing of commercial real estate, over and above normal variables. It highlights how this can help explain over and undershooting of yields within commercial real estate which would be of great importance in the investment world. Originality/value This paper attempts to explicitly measure market sentiment, pricing of risk and how this impacts real estate pricing.

scholarly journals Trust in a viable real estate economy with disruption and blockchain

Facilities ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 103-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Veuger
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The real estate world finds itself at a tipping point of a transition: a dramatic and irreversible shift in (real estate) systems in society. This paper is a State of the art of Disruption, Blockchain and Real Estate in the Netherlands and international. Design/methodology/approach The following questions were asked to all those involved: What do you think is the essence of Blockchain for real estate? What is the most current situation with respect to Blockchain and real estate from your perspective? Which publications are important from your perspective? What do you expect with respect to the impact of Blockchain on real estate for (social) real estate? What are questions for the future for real estate and Blockchain? In addition, interviews, exploratory conversations and correspondence took place, and the content was peer reviewed. Findings Changes in value concepts affect the valuation of real estate and the thinking about it. The orientation of changing users and owners of real estate affects innovativeness, values and flexibility in managing that property. Orientation on disruption must be seen as proof that the real estate world is able to actually innovate the accumulated assets and consolidate this. The financial and real estate markets are markets that exaggerate through irrational behaviour. Fear of “eat or be eaten” determines people’s behaviour. Financial and thus real estate markets are always unstable and must always be regulated by people and organizations. Research limitations/implications The question that remains is whether it is important to look at disruptive innovations in existing markets or newcomers in the real estate market and Blockchain. The question is whether Blockchain is only a technological disruption, or a real game changer, and whether the entire value chain of the real estate market will embrace it. No two disruptions are the same. Trust in Blockchain is a prerequisite for guiding the predictable form of that disruption where start-up companies use new technology to offer cheaper and inferior alternatives to real estate in the market. You could also talk about anti-fragile value: “Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile” (Taleb, 2012), in other words: attention to disruption and Blockchain creates a viable real estate economy. Practical implications The true meaning of the Blockchain technology for real estate still needs to be investigated. The author is still curious to understand and clarify the value of Blockchain for real estate processes. Doubt continues to exist and is therefore a feeding ground for further research, because we do not know what we have not seen. Social implications Looking at the impact of Blockchain on real estate, a number of conclusions can be drawn. First of all, the relationship between Blockchain and real estate has not yet been proven in practice. It is expected to develop further in the form of registering transaction processes and the DNA passport of a real estate object. Secondly, completeness and transparency are the basic ingredients for trust in the system. Third, real estate wants to remain viable. For this reason, taking the offense is necessary for real estate and management to connect with social demand. Behaviour also leads to new earnings models of the social and economic spin-off of disruptive real estate. If the Dutch real estate sector embraces Blockchain and is able to realize innovations, there are opportunities for real estate entrepreneurs to exploit the disruptive character to provide those new services. Originality/value The way in which disruption, Blockchain and real estate will develop in the coming years are not the only obvious characteristics of a particular era but also its social impact and user behaviour. This also applies to how this real estate transition can best be tracked, guided and utilized in society at the international, national and regional level. Disruptive organizations clearly respond to the viability of the (built) environment and therefore determine competitive strength. This affects the current and future valuation of real estate.

CEO behavior and sustainability performance: the moderating role of corporate governance

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amel Kouaib ◽  
Asma Bouzouitina ◽  
Anis Jarboui
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Corporate Sustainability ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Performance ◽  
Corporate Sustainability Performance ◽  
Good Corporate Governance ◽  
Governance Practices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper explores how the tension between a firm's CEO overconfidence feature and externally observable hubris attribute may determine the level of corporate sustainability performance. This work also contemplates the impact of the moderator “corporate governance practices.”Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a sample of 658 firm-year-observations using a sample of European real estate firms indexed on Stoxx Europe 600 Index from 2006 to 2019. To test the developed hypotheses, feasible generalized least square (FGLS) regression is applied.FindingsFindings suggest that a good corporate governance score strengthens the positive effect of the psychological bias (CEO overconfidence) on corporate sustainability performance while it fails to attenuate the negative effect of the cognitive bias (CEO hubris).Research limitations/implicationsThe research provides an overview of the impact of CEO personality traits on the corporate sustainability performance level in the European real estate sup-sector. As corporate governance can have a major impact to control these traits, the authors recommend European real estate companies to improve their corporate governance practices.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existent literature this gap with two empirical novelties: (1) providing a novel insight into sustainability involvement using a sample of European real estate sup-sector and (2) investigating the moderating effect on the link between CEO psychological and cognitive biases and sustainability performance. This study provides empirical evidence that entrenchment problems arising from CEO hubris would not be mitigated by a good corporate governance practice.

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