Abstract
After the oil price crashes in 2014 & 2020 several M&A deals ended up in legal debates because operators cancelled major projects or infills wells that were booked in the "probable" reserves only. This document challenges the compatibility between the deterministic incremental reserve assessment method (PRMS2018, chapter 4.2.1.3), and the concept of split condition (PRMS2018 chapter 2.2.0.3), which is not allowed for reserves booking under PRMS. With a few examples, we explain why the incremental method may be misleading investors, if used wrongly.
Policies, stock market requirements, or simply the understanding of reserves guidelines may differ from one company to another. Many filers and auditors are still keen on using the deterministic incremental approach. This method consists in "defining discrete parts or segments of the accumulation that reflect high, best, and low confidence regarding the estimates of recoverable quantities under the defined development plan". In principle, this should give similar result to the widely accepted scenario method (PRMS2018, chapter 4.2.1.3) but in reality, major discrepancies are observed. Some reserve evaluation may also become misleading for banks, investors, or even for good asset management. I many cases, the estimation of recoverable volumes is reasonable, but it does not match the company CAPEX requirements, affecting corporate cash flow as well as potential Reserves Based Lending (RBL) requirements. In another case, the 1P case will be robust, but the 2P may be grossly overestimated, affecting M&A or share price.
"Reserves guidelines are principle based" this has recently become a very fashionable statement in the context of SEC bookings. Similar discussions will also occur when reviewing PRMS reports. However, different interpretations for keywords such as "Project", "Spit condition", or "FID" should not prevent the evaluator to provide a reliable reserves estimation to investor or company management.
This document questions the threshold where ethics disappears, and a Madoff scheme may become legal.