Incremental Method vs Split Conditions: Discussing the Similarities Between Reserves Evaluation and a Madoff Scheme

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Salacz ◽  
Farid Allam ◽  
Imre Szilagyi ◽  
Yousof Al Mansoori
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Incremental Method ◽  
Incremental Approach ◽  
Market Requirements ◽  
Scenario Method

Abstract After the oil price crashes in 2014 & 2020 several M&A deals ended up in legal debates because operators cancelled major projects or infills wells that were booked in the "probable" reserves only. This document challenges the compatibility between the deterministic incremental reserve assessment method (PRMS2018, chapter 4.2.1.3), and the concept of split condition (PRMS2018 chapter 2.2.0.3), which is not allowed for reserves booking under PRMS. With a few examples, we explain why the incremental method may be misleading investors, if used wrongly. Policies, stock market requirements, or simply the understanding of reserves guidelines may differ from one company to another. Many filers and auditors are still keen on using the deterministic incremental approach. This method consists in "defining discrete parts or segments of the accumulation that reflect high, best, and low confidence regarding the estimates of recoverable quantities under the defined development plan". In principle, this should give similar result to the widely accepted scenario method (PRMS2018, chapter 4.2.1.3) but in reality, major discrepancies are observed. Some reserve evaluation may also become misleading for banks, investors, or even for good asset management. I many cases, the estimation of recoverable volumes is reasonable, but it does not match the company CAPEX requirements, affecting corporate cash flow as well as potential Reserves Based Lending (RBL) requirements. In another case, the 1P case will be robust, but the 2P may be grossly overestimated, affecting M&A or share price. "Reserves guidelines are principle based" this has recently become a very fashionable statement in the context of SEC bookings. Similar discussions will also occur when reviewing PRMS reports. However, different interpretations for keywords such as "Project", "Spit condition", or "FID" should not prevent the evaluator to provide a reliable reserves estimation to investor or company management. This document questions the threshold where ethics disappears, and a Madoff scheme may become legal.

Risk-Managed Momentum: An Evidence from Indian Stock Market

2021 ◽  
pp. 231971452110230
Author(s):  
Simarjeet Singh ◽  
Nidhi Walia ◽  
Pradiptarathi Panda ◽  
Sanjay Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Relative Momentum ◽  
Extended Time ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
Time Frames

Relative momentum strategies yield large and substantial profits in the Indian Stock Market. Nevertheless, relative momentum profits are negatively skewed and prone to occasional severe losses. By taking into consideration 450 stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, the present study predicts the timing of these huge momentum losses and proposes a simple risk-managed momentum approach to avoid these losses. The proposed risk-managed momentum approach not only doubles the adjusted Sharpe ratio but also results in significant improvements in downside risks. In contrast to relative momentum payoffs, risk-managed momentum payoffs remain substantial even in extended time frames. The study’s findings are particularly relevant for asset management companies, fund houses and financial academicians working in the area of asset anomalies.

Local Stock Market Integration with International Gold and Oil Price

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kanon Kumar Sen ◽  
◽  
Md. Thasinul Abedin ◽  
Ratan Ghosh ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Stock Market Integration ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Short Run

We look for the integration of Bangladesh Stock Market with international gold and oil price using most recent monthly data set from January 2003 to December 2020 (2003m1-2020m12). We employ the bounds-testing approach to cointegration between stock market index (DSEX) and international gold and oil price and eventually find an integration and dynamic significant impact of international gold and oil price on DSEX in the long and short-run. We discuss the important policy implications of the dynamic impact of international gold and oil price on stock market index.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting the Performance of Kuwait Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Ebrahim Merza ◽  
Sayed-Abbas Almusawi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Insurance Sector

<p>This paper aims at finding the effective factors that influence three sectors in Kuwait stock exchange market (KSE) in addition to the whole stock market. The three sectors are banking, real estate and insurance sectors. The paper measures KSE performance through the average share prices calculated on a quarterly basis starting from 2005 until first quarter of 2015. It is found that each sector behaves differently towards macroeconomic variables. The most important determinants for the KSE overall market performance were found to be gold price and the deposits rate. Individually, the banking sector is influenced by consumer price index, interest rate on loans, oil price and gold price. The insurance sector is influenced by money supply, residential real estate price and oil price. The real estate sector is influenced by the exchange rate with respect to US dollars, interest rate on loans, oil price and gold price.</p>

scholarly journals Influencing Factors of Stock Price in Nepal

NCC Journal ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-120
Author(s):  
Krishna Bahadur Thapa
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Inverse Association ◽  
Significant Positive Association

This paper explores the influencing factors of stock price in Nepal (with reference to Nepalese commercial banks) listed on the Nepal Stock Exchange Ltd. over the period of 2008 to 2018AD. The information were collected from questionnaire and financial statement of concerned organizations and analyzed using simple linear regression model. The conclusions of the work revealed that earning per share (EPS), dividend per share (DPS), effective rules and regulations, market whims and rumors, company profiles and success depend upon luck have the significant positive association with share price while interest rate (IR) and price to earnings ratio (PER), showed the significant inverse association with share price. Further, accessibility of liquidity, fundamental and technical analysis stimulates the performance of the Nepalese stock market. More importantly, stock market has been found to respond significantly to changes in dividend and interest rate.

scholarly journals Surplus Free Cash Flow, Stock Market Segmentations and Earnings Management: The Moderating Role of Independent Audit Committee

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092093406
Author(s):  
Ahmad A. Toumeh ◽  
Sofri Yahya ◽  
Azlan Amran
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Audit Committee ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
The Body ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
Independent Audit

Management engages in earnings manipulation for different reasons. This article argues that low-growth firms with high free cash flow will opt for income-increasing earnings management in order to obscure the low profits derived from their investments in negative net present value (NPV) projects. On the other hand, we argue that the listed companies might be interested in being listed in the first market due to its privileges and to preserve the competitiveness, through managing their earnings upwardly, so that they can satisfy the condition of achieving a particular earnings limit. This article should advance the body of earnings management literature in the Jordanian context by examining the effect of the moderating role of an independent audit committee (IAC) in the association between surplus free cash flow (SFCF) and income-increasing discretionary accruals (DAC). Further, this is the initial empirical attempt to investigate the moderation effect of IAC between stock market segmentations (SMS) and positive DAC. The results of this current study offer original and beneficial information for the Jordanian government and other countries with a similar institutional environment because the study promotes the application of applying IAC as an efficient tool to constrain management behaviour towards manipulation of the accruals. On top of that, this research offers information concerning the prevailing situation of earnings management practices and corporate governance in Jordan, in which shareholders, local and international investors, policymakers, regulators and academic researchers are interested. Finally, panel data analyses and various statistical techniques are employed to derive conclusions.

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