A framework for communicating the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the discipline of public health, infectious disease, and policy modeling squarely into the spotlight. Never before have decisions regarding public health measures and their impacts been such a topic of international deliberation from the level of individuals and communities through to global leaders. And nor previously have models – developed at rapid pace and often in the absence of complete information - been so central to the decision-making process. However, after more than 18 months of experience with pandemic modeling, policy-makers need to be more confident about which models will be most helpful to support them when taking public health decisions. We combine the authors’ collective international experience of modelling for and with Governments and policy-makers with prior research utilisation scholarship to describe a framework to assist both modelers and policy-makers consider the utility of models that may be available to them when faced with difficult public health and policy decisions. To illustrate these principles, a set of three independent but complementary modeling case-studies undertaken at the same time in NSW, Australia during that state’s unfolding second wave of COVID-19 infections is presented.

Globalization of capital, erosion of economic policy sovereignty, and the lessons from John Maynard Keynes

This article observes that current macroeconomic policy modeling, centered on domestic agents or agencies, fails to recognize the role that global investors play in determining the space for effective domestic macroeconomic policies, and argues that these actors must be brought to the center of macro analysis if one wants to understand how policies work in the global financial context. The article describes the key features of global investors, discusses their power to determine the prices at which public-sector liabilities (money and debt) trade in the international markets, and considers how this power affects the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies by national governments. As a result, no government is truly sovereign in a globalized world, and every government is subject to an intertemporal budget constraint (IBC), although, of course, not all governments are born equal and not all IBCs are equally binding: government IBCs are elastic, endogenous to global investor decisions, and yet ineluctable. The article concludes that choosing the correct country policy stance in today's financial global context would benefit from revisiting some of the key policy lessons that John Maynard Keynes left with us, considering his deep knowledge of global financial markets and how they affect country economies.

Crafting a Sustainable Next Generation Infrastructure: Evaluation of China’s New Infrastructure Construction Policies

How to boost the economy and achieve more sustainable development with enhanced quality, efficiency, and fairness by leveraging digital technology in the post-COVID-19 era has been an important agenda faced by many countries. As China’s new infrastructure initiative has the potential to open a new pathway for economic resilience, its policy characteristics and orientation have attracted more and more attention by policy makers and researchers. Taking the new infrastructure policies issued by Chinese local governments since 2020 as a data source, this paper, on the one hand, uses text mining and social network analysis to reveal the scope and coverage of the construction of new infrastructure and its orientation. On the other hand, a quantitative evaluation of 12 provincial policies grounded on a revised framework and policy modeling consistency index approach was conducted. The results show that Chinese governments adopt a bottom-up incrementalism planning mode for the policy steering of the construction of new infrastructure. This policy arrangement is a kind of goal-oriented modulation that makes planning more adaptive and participatory to enhance the infrastructure sustainability.

Research directions in policy modeling: Insights from comparative analysis of recent projects

With the increased availability of data and the capacity to make sense of these data, computational approaches to analyze, model and simulate public policy evolved toward viable instruments to deliberate, plan, and evaluate them in different areas of application. Such examples include infrastructure, mobility, monetary, or austerity policies, policies on different aspects of societies (health, pandemic, skills, inclusion, etc.). Technological advances along with the evolution of theoretical models and frameworks open valuable opportunities, while at the same time, posing new challenges. The paper investigates the current state of research in the domain and aims at identifying the most pressing areas for future research. This is done through both literature research of policy modeling and the analysis of research and innovation projects that either focus on policy modeling or involve it as a significant component of the research design. In the paper, 16 recent projects involving the keyword policy modeling were analyzed. The majority of projects concern the application of policy modeling to a specific domain or area of interest, while several projects tackled the cross-cutting topics (risk and crisis management). The detailed analysis of the projects led to topics of future research in the domain of policy modeling. Most prominent future research topics in policy modeling include stakeholder involvement approaches, applicability of research results, handling complexity of models, integration of models from different modeling and simulation paradigms and approaches, visualization of simulation results, real-time data processing, and scalability. These aspects require further research to appropriately contribute to further advance the field.