Pursuing European Strategic Autonomy: Up-to-date Results

2016–2020 witnessed significant structural changes in the foreign and security policy of the European Union. External factors encouraged the need to strengthen the EU strategic autonomy not only in the form of particular practical moves related to the establishment and development of new institutions, but also as part of an attempt to formulate a new common discourse. The article examines these processes through the security communities theory, traditionally applied to analyze transatlantic dynamics. This helps to both systemically address the recent changes and identify miscalculations and missing elements in framing the European security community. Since the 2020 PESCO Strategic Review to a certain extent summed up the initial phase of development of the central initiative of the whole process, the article analyzes the so far achieved results in setting up the new agenda for the EU and the prospects of translating it into joint practices. The main assumption posits that the key obstacle for enhancing strategic autonomy is the need to use a collective identity - both a tool for developing institutions and a goal of this process. As a result, neither a new collective identity, nor a functional network of institutions have been built, leaving the EU unprepared to bring the idea of strategic autonomy further.

New Strategic Foresight in EU

The article deals with the consideration of the concept and practice of the new strategic foresight being developed in the European Union. It summarizes the EU's experience in clarifying the conceptual framework, in the conceptual apparatus, methodology and expected practice of using strategic foresight for the development and implementation of policies to achieve the declared goals of long-term development. The main attention is paid to the analysis of four interrelated factors assessed by the European Commission as determining its target setting for sustainable development: socio-economic, geopolitical, green and digital, as well as issues of political decisions monitoring. Based on the results of the work, conclusions were made that are of fundamental importance for the formation of the prognostic component of domestic policy, with a focus on the general socio-economic and political conditions necessary to create a strategic forecasting system that is not yet available in Russia, adequate to the requirements of modern development.

Contemporary Policy Challenges Identity in the EU

The author of the article attempts to use the theories of the European identity, memory politics, identity politics by placing them in the context of the European (international) security. The author considers it fundamentally important to pay attention not so much to the threats to European identity, but to how identity is used to legitimize foreign policy of the European Union. The article highlights such perspectives of this problem as the confrontation inside the EU on the politics of memory and identity and the justification of the EU foreign policy towards Russia by the need to protect the European identity and European values. The author uses the discourse-analysis and identity research methods. The main emphasis is placed on the competitiveness of identity politics and the possibilities of using it for political purposes, to legitimize solutions to ensure the security of the European Union and the world as a whole.

Assessment of the Reproductive Potential of Ethnic Groups in the Baltic States

In the post-Soviet period, attention is paid to the depopulation problem in the Baltic States, caused by the natural decline and migration outflow. At the same time, there is a change in the amount of certain ethnic groups in the population of these states. The purpose of the study is to assess the prospects for the reproductive potential of ethnic groups in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The study was carried out within ethnic demography, a scientific discipline that has developed at the intersection of demography, ethnography, and anthropology. The article presents the results of forecasting the number of major ethnic groups in the Baltic States for the long term (until 2061) using original methodological tools. In all three Baltic states, against the background of population decline, the share of titular ethnic groups is expected to grow – the highest in Latvia, the less significant in Estonia, and the minimum in Lithuania. The share of Russians (the most significant is in Latvia) and other ethnic groups will continue to decrease due to their low reproductive potential. In general, the tendency of the Baltic countries to move away from the complex ethnic structure of the population in the Soviet period towards mono-ethnicity will continue.

The OSCE in the Era of a Threat to the European Security ‒ Challenges and Prospects

The article analyses the fundamental research “Multilateralism in Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for the OSCE”, prepared by a team of Swiss experts under the leadership of the renowned Swiss diplomat Thomas Greminger (the Permanent Representative of Switzerland to the OSCE, the UN and the International Organizations in Vienna). The fact that T. Greminger served as Secretary General of the OSCE from 2017 to 2020 gives added value to the research. This created a unique opportunity to combine in the research his vast experience, personal impressions from the observance of the “internal kitchen” of the Organization and his analyses of the main directions of the work of the OSCE. The research focuses on the central problems of the OSCE’s activities- preservation of the European security, prevention and regulation of conflicts, new challenges to the European security, strategic partnership of the OSCE with major international organizations, introduction of modern technologies to the operational activities of the Organization, reformation and modernization of the OSCE’ s management system and operational functions. Special attention is payed to the revitalization of the OSCE Structured Dialogue ‒ the main platform for discussions of the most important politico-military problems and confidence-building measures, exchange of information on current perceptions of threat, military capacity, de-escalation measures, best practices for the prevention and improved management of military incidents. The book contains a positive assessment of the concept of cooperative actions aimed at a collective response to the new challenges to the European security: climate change and environment destruction, impact of technology on the societies, illegal migration, pandemics, cross- border organised crime, cyber threats, nuclear security. The authors of the book consider that the collective security initiative could stimulate trust, convergence of interests of participating states and finally would improve European security through cooperation. They also bring to attention the problems of the longstanding reform of the OSCE through presentation of the ten-point reform agenda, including management reform of the OSCE Secretariat, reform of the budget cycle, information security and automating work processes. leveraging partnerships with international and regional organizations.

EU TAX Strategy in the COVID-19 Pandemic

This article explores the EU's experience in finding tax revenues without compromising economic recovery. The EU's tax policy strategy envisages a stronger role for taxes in the development of a green, digital and inclusive Europe. It is recognized as fair to increase the tax burden on "polluters", digital and financial businesses, the largest corporations in the context of a single European economic space and fair tax competition of EU countries, excluding opportunities for tax base erosion. In 2021-2027 it is planned to increase the burden through the introduction of contributions on non-recycled plastic, border carbon adjustment mechanism, digital levy, financial transaction tax, revision of the CO2 emissions trading scheme. This could significantly complicate nonresident digital, financial and foreign economic activities in the EU, as well as the EU's international relations. The reform is controversial and requires revision, taking into account international agreements and the national interests of partner countries. The set of tactical measures involves updating the norms of legislation to meet the requirements of the digital economy, increasing trust and transparency in tax relations, convenience and simplicity of tax payments, and expanding cooperation between tax authorities of EU countries. The experience and prospects of the EU tax policy are significant for Russia both in terms of implementation of the best practices and in terms of timely response to possible dangers and threats related to the ongoing tax reforms in the EU.

Сurrent Trends in the Interaction Between the Black Sea Littoral States

The paper deals with the сurrent peculiarities of the relations between the Black Sea littoral states (Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia and Turkey) with the consideration of the coronavirus pandemic that to some extent has changed the ways of the external interaction. The author analyses the role of the Black Sea region in the political discourse of each littoral state and defines the trends of the economic and military-political interaction between the Black Sea states. It is shown that the pandemic has not led to the alleviation of the confrontation between the littoral states amidst the new common challenge. Neither has it stimulated them to reassess the current challenges and threats to maritime security. On the contrary, during the fight against the pandemic the conflicting nature of their interaction exacerbated under the conditions of the absence of the united strategic basis developed by the littoral states for their policy in the Black Sea region since the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The aspiration of Ukraine and Georgia to obtain military-political advantages in the Black Sea area prevailed with the support of the non-regional actors ‒ the United States, NATO and the EU.

Russian Recognition of Macedonia’s New Name

The senseless name dispute and the renaming of the constitutional name of the Republic of Macedonia, which was perceived by the Western countries as a «technical obstacle» to the country's NATO and EU accession, was in fact a part of the Macedonian southern neighbor’s long-term plan to erase the Macedonian identity by violating the Macedonian people's right to national self-determination. Since, any change in the name of a country automatically entailed consequences for the national and cultural identity of the Macedonians - the titular people of the country. Russian diplomacy closely followed the events in the country and thoroughly knew the essence of the political crisis that began in 2015 which eventually ended with the renaming of the country against the will of the Macedonian people. The Russian decision to retreat from the intention to challenge the Prespa agreement in the UN Security Council as contradictory to the international law and violating Macedonian 1991 Constitution questioned the role of the Russian diplomacy in upholding the principles and norms of the rule of international law in the world. The subsequent recognition of Macedonia’s new name by Russia forced many in the Republic of Macedonia to include Russia, an indisputable fighter for justice in a multipolar world, in the list of countries involved in the national “depersonalization” of Macedonia, which appeared on the political map of Europe as a result of the anti-fascist liberation movement of the Macedonian people.

Mechanisms for Stabilizing Crisis Situations in Visegrad Europe

In the article, the authors, pointing out the main challenges faced by the Central European countries in the last two years, analyze the measures taken by the governments of the Visegrad countries ‒ individually and jointly ‒ in an effort to overcome the negative consequences of crisis situations and to give a new impetus to the development of societies in social, political and economic spheres. The pandemic of 2020/2021 in a certain sense can be considered as a milestone measuring the effectiveness of political and economic systems established over three decades in these countries. The authors have chosen for this publication only some, but decisive measures, such as internal political stabilization, social, as well as economic devices to help the population in a pandemic. Analyzing the main “alarming points” of Central European countries, the authors come to the conclusion that the democratic parliamentary system established in these countries over the years of reforms, based on a network of non-governmental organizations, plays a significant positive role in overcoming them; the manifestation of independence in taking decisions affecting the interests of the nation despite delays or counter-measures of Brussels; taking into account the peculiarities of national and regional development in other areas.

Discourse of the Securitization of Migration in France: from Republican Integration to Alarmism

Modern migration discourse contributes to the securitization of migration in France: it is transferred to the security field, endowed with threat connotations, and thus is becoming the direct cause of the security deficit. The agents of securitization (representatives of the country’s supreme power or right-wing political movements, or writers and essayists who recognize themselves as independent from any political party’s influence and who, however, still share the anti-immigration mood of the right-wing political movement. They use elements of the discourse of fear to achieve their own political goals; they present immigrants as a mortal threat not only to the national identity of the state and the integrity of its society, but also to its public and national security. In the discourse of these agents, there is a clear tendency to create an image of a France “abandoned” by the government and “besieged” by immigrants, a France as a subject to “colonization” by Islam that is incompatible with the secular principle the country that supports republican ideals. Analysis of the migration discourse of securitization agents reveals bold metaphors and emotionally charged expressions that generate a sense of fear in society and give rise to misconceptions about the scale of immigration and the size of the Muslim population in the country.