In order to analyze non-equilibrium states in the regional markets of milk-raw materials, a model of "estimated price" has been developed. That model is a function of two factors, an indicator opposite to the supply elasticity, the role of which is to assess the efficiency of the price stimulus and resource efficiency, acting as an indicator of the balanced state of the market. Four types of non-equilibrium market state were identified based on that model and tested on the example of individual markets of the VRO (Volga Region Okrug). Thus it is possible to classify markets according to two characteristics: surplus or deficit and positive or negative reaction of milk sales volume to price incentive. These parameters are determined by the structural characteristics of the market and, above all, by the level of development of the collective sector - agricultural organizations. In regions with low level of development of the collective sector there is a significant shortage in the market of milk-raw materials and a weak reaction of agricultural organizations to the price incentive. At the same time, the actual price of milk sales came close to the upper limit of the price range of the "estimated price," which as a matter offact indicates that there is a limit for further price incentives. However, even under these conditions, the structural position ofprocessors in the market is stronger and incapable of solving the deficit problem. Regions with a high level of development of the collective sector are characterized by two situations - either surplus or slight deficit with the possibility of transition to balance in the market and excessive price incentive. Here, the actual price turns out to be much higher than the "estimated price," which shows the presence of a complementary price, - an investment instrument for the development of dairy cattle breeding. The application of the "estimated price" tool allows to synthesize the methodology of several approaches. In particular the decomposition of the price factor of 1 ton of milk by two factors: full costs and profit from the sale of 1 ton of milk, allowed to link the provisions of the concept of supply elasticity and the theory of reproduction.