Security Challenges and Air Quality Management in India: Emissions Inventory and Forecasting Estimates

The defense and peace literature have focused mainly on the military-growth nexus, with little attention paid to the environmental sustainability agenda, which is impacted by increased global arms transfers. The supply of lead-containing ammunition generates complex gas mixtures (including CO2 emissions) and particulates that harm the healthcare sustainability agenda. Based on the significance of the subject matter, the study uses the Indian economy as a case study, with a significant rate of arms transfers associated with higher carbon emissions. The study analyzed data from more than four decades, from 1975 to 2020. Data on arms imports, military personnel, and military expenditures are used to evaluate the ‘ammunition emissions function’. It corresponds to the three research hypotheses, namely, the ‘emissions-defense burden hypothesis’ (arms transfers increase carbon emissions), the ‘emissions-cleaner hypothesis’ (arms transfers reduce carbon emissions), and the ‘emissions-asymmetric hypothesis’ (positive and negative shocks of arms transfers either support the ‘defense burden hypothesis’ or ‘cleaner hypothesis’). The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) results confirmed the ’emissions-defense burden hypothesis‘ in the long run, as positive and negative shocks from arms imports increase carbon emissions. However, in the short run, positive arms imports increase carbon emissions while negative arms imports decrease carbon emissions. Furthermore, the findings supported the ’emissions-cleaner hypothesis‘ in the relationship between armed forces personnel and carbon emissions. The findings imply that the positive and negative shocks experienced by armed forces personnel reduce carbon emissions in the short and long run. Positive shocks to military spending support the ’emissions-defense burden hypothesis‘ in the short run; however, the results vanished when negative shocks to military spending supported the ’emissions-spillover hypothesis‘ (lowering military spending reduces carbon emissions and increases economic productivity) in the short and long run. The country’s unsustainable economic activities are viewed as a negative factor contributing to long-term carbon emissions increases. The negative shocks of armed forces personnel and positive arms imports would almost certainly have a significant long-term impact on carbon emissions. As a result, the ‘treadmill theory of destruction’ has been confirmed in a country. The study concludes that lead-free ammunition and managing ammunition safety are beneficial to a country’s environmental sustainability agenda.

The United Kingdom and the European Union and their post-brexit trade in heavy conventional weapons

The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union in early 2020 brought new changes and challenges concerning also the heavy conventional weapons trade. Both the UK and the EU now have an opportunity to strengthen their position in the global conventional arms trade and revise territorial structures of their defence industries. The author attempts to analyse the positions of the United Kingdom and the European Union in the global heavy conventional arms trade over the past five years and to outline their future prospects after Brexit. The main source of the paper comes from quantitative data available in world databases monitoring conventional arms transfers as well as the UK’s new defence strategy.

Machine learning deployment for arms dynamics pattern recognition in Southeast Asia region

<p>Finding the most significant determinant variable of arms dynamic is highly required due to strategic policies formulations and power mapping for academics and policy makers. Machine learning is still new or underdiscussed among the study of politics and international relations. Existing literature have much focus on using advanced quantitative methods by applying various types of regression analysis. This study analyzed the arms dynamic in Southeast Asia countries along with its some strategic partners such as United States, China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan by using ‘Decision Tree’ of machine learning algorithm. This study conducted a machine learning analysis on 55 variable items which is classified into 8 classes of variables videlicet defense budget, arms trade exports, arms trade imports, political posture, economic posture, security posture and defense priority, national capability, and direct contact,. The results suggest three findings: (1) state who perceives maritime as strategic drivers and forces will seek more power for its maritime defense posture which is translated to defense budget, (2) big size countries tend to be an arms exporter country, and (3) state’s energy dependence often leads to a higher volume of arms transfers between countries.</p>

US Foreign Policy to South America since 9/11: Neglect or Militarisation?

Academic literature on US Foreign Policy to South America usually states its lack of attention to the region in the post 9/11 period. I aim to problematize this assertion through an analysis of US regional security policy. Therefore, I consider data referring to military and economic assistance, arms transfers, and the SOUTHCOM position towards its area of responsibility, as well as official documents and diplomatic cables. I conclude that, although the region was not a priority, a waning in US actions or a moment of neglect in its policy towards it was likewise not observed. From a historical perspective, the area was never the main focus of attention, but there is a specialized bureaucracy that works on the region to maintain US hegemony. Therefore, the investigation indicates that Latin American assertiveness during the 2000s was caused primarily by the conjunction of the ascension of leftist governments and quest for autonomy, as well as by Chinese and Russian involvement in Latin America, but not by US neglect. The article is divided into six sections, including the introduction and final remarks. Following the introduction, I analyse the academic literature regarding USA-Latin American relations in the second section, the US assistance in the third, the SOUTHCOM postures in the fourth, and the strategies deployed by the USA regarding great powers and arms transfers in the fifth. Finally, I present the final remarks.

Ketergantungan Transfer Senjata: Studi Kasus Pembelian F-35 oleh Italia

Tulisan ini akan mencoba menjelaskan mengapa Italia sebagai negara yang bisa membuat pesawat tempur secara domestik tetap melakukan pembelian F-35 dari Amerika Serikat. Padahal menurut infromasi yang beredar F-35 memiliki beberapa kelemahan fatal yang tentunnya bisa melemahkan kemampuan militer Italia dan mendapat pertentangan di dalam negeri mereka sendiri. Selain pembelian ini dipertanyakan sebab Italia adalah salah satu negara yang bisa membuat pesawat tempur mereka sendiri yaitu Eurofighter Typhoon yang cukup canggih. Dalam menjelaskan kasus ini penulis akan menggunakan konsep ketergantungan transfer senjata oleh David Kinsella. Menurut Kinsella ketika sebuah negara sudah mengalami ketergantungan transfer senjata, maka negara tersebut akan selalu bergantung kepada negara yang menyuplai senjata untuk memenuhi kebutuhan keamanannya. Ada dua indikator utama untuk menilai apakah negara sudah mengalami ketergantungan transfer senjata pertama adalah rendahnya kapasitas dan produksi senjata dalam negeri dan terfokusnya supplier senjata suatu negara dengan satu atau beberapa negara lain saja. Data yang akan digunakan unutk menganalisis kasus ini adalah data yang berasal dari sumber daring seperti jurnal akademik, buku, dokumen resmi dan portal berita yang dapat dipertanggungjawabkan kebenarannya. Hasil tulisan ini menunjukan bahwa Italia masih memiliki ketergantungan transfer senjata dengan Amerika Serikat sebab kemampuan industri pertahanan dalam negeri mereka yang belum memadai dan masih terfokusnya pembelian senjata mereka dengan Amerika Serikat. Kata kunci: Amerika Serikat, F-35, Italia, ketergantungan transfer senjata This paper will try to explain why Italy, as a country that can make fighter aircraft domestically, continues to purchase F-35s from the United States.Because based on the information that is availvable, F-35 is having some critical flaws that can compromissed Italian defense, Italian decision to buy F-35 also creating domestic opposition regarding that act. This decision also raised some question because Italian is one of the countries that can domestically produce a rather sophisticated jet fighter, the Eurofighter Typhoon. In explaining this case the author will use the concept of arms transfer dependency by David Kinsella. According to Kinsella, when a country has experienced a dependency on arms transfers, that country will always depend on the country that supplies weapons to meet its security needs. There are two main indicators to assess whether a country has experienced a dependency on arms transfers. The first is the low capacity and production of domestic weapons and the focus on arms suppliers dari one country to one or several other countries. The data that is used in this paper will be based on online source such as academic journal, books, official documents and trusted news website. The results of this paper show that Italy still has a dependency on arms transfers with the United States because of the inadequate capability of their domestic defense industry and their weapons that is still based on United States import. Keywords: arms transfer dependence, F-35, Italy, United States

Swiss Defence Industry in the Global Arms Trade – Successes and Challenges

When we talk about the Defence Industry (DI), arms transfers, and military expenditures we mostly refer to data accumulated by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In the SIPRI Top 20 list of largest exporters of major arms for 2019, small states hold consecutive positions: Israel takes 8th place, Switzerland is 13th, and Sweden, Norway, and Belarus place 15th, 17th, and 20th respectively. The author analyses the Swiss DI case due to several reasons; its place in SIPRI Top, its sharp rise of Swiss arms exports in the recent year, its Swiss neutrality strategy, the country&rsquo;s multilingual society, and its all-government approach to the arms industry, though still contributing to the limited scholarly studies on contemporary Swiss DI. This paper aims to explore Swiss DI and its strategies, to identify the country&rsquo;s defence and security policy influence towards DI, and to discuss the Swiss DI stance and future perspectives in the context of the global arms trade. At the same time, this paper also highlights Swiss DI successes and failures that could be of significant use to other small states aiming to develop or enhance their relevant DIs.

Why Are Developed Countries Giving Aid to India?

India is the recipient of substantial aid flows but also a nuclear-armed power and an emerging donor. Why have developed countries provided aid to one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world? Answering this question requires understanding the underlying determinants of these aid flows. Using data from 1960 to 2015, the domestic conditions of India and the external conditions of donors are empirically explored with time-series analysis and panel-data analysis. We find that during the Cold War India received more foreign aid from donors with a larger volume of trade and arms transfers, but from 2000 to 2015 the effect of arms transfers declined while countries with high trade volumes continued to give more aid. Although these findings broadly support the realist interpretation of aid, we conclude that post–Cold War structural shifts in the international aid regime and defense industries need to be considered by future researchers.