The Weeks When Decades Happened: A Theoretical Consideration of the 2011 Egyptian Uprising

<p>In 2011, the Middle East was plunged into turmoil with a series of popular uprisings ousting a number of long standing dictators. Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s 30 year reign was toppled in just over two weeks. This thesis takes a theoretical approach to the Egyptian Revolution, assessing the extent to which the Egyptian case lends support to various theories which consider transitions away from authoritarianism and towards democracy, and the extent to which these theories can assist us in understanding why democracy has not resulted in Egypt. There are a number of strands of theoretical work which consider both transitions away from authoritarianism and towards democracy, and the factors influencing the timing and mode of transition. These include structural theories related to economic modernisation, inequality and crisis; those related to the role of elites and civil society in influencing transitions, whether from above or below; ideas surrounding the diffusion of, and international influences on, democratisation; and arguments considering the role of religion and culture. This thesis argues that theories of authoritarian breakdown garner more support from the Egyptian case than theories of democratisation. Ideas related to the diffusion of contentious politics and international influences on transition, as well as the role of both elites and civil society, garner support from the Egyptian case. Structural theories related to economic conditions, and the role of religion and culture, garner less support from events in Egypt.</p>

The Weeks When Decades Happened: A Theoretical Consideration of the 2011 Egyptian Uprising

<p>In 2011, the Middle East was plunged into turmoil with a series of popular uprisings ousting a number of long standing dictators. Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s 30 year reign was toppled in just over two weeks. This thesis takes a theoretical approach to the Egyptian Revolution, assessing the extent to which the Egyptian case lends support to various theories which consider transitions away from authoritarianism and towards democracy, and the extent to which these theories can assist us in understanding why democracy has not resulted in Egypt. There are a number of strands of theoretical work which consider both transitions away from authoritarianism and towards democracy, and the factors influencing the timing and mode of transition. These include structural theories related to economic modernisation, inequality and crisis; those related to the role of elites and civil society in influencing transitions, whether from above or below; ideas surrounding the diffusion of, and international influences on, democratisation; and arguments considering the role of religion and culture. This thesis argues that theories of authoritarian breakdown garner more support from the Egyptian case than theories of democratisation. Ideas related to the diffusion of contentious politics and international influences on transition, as well as the role of both elites and civil society, garner support from the Egyptian case. Structural theories related to economic conditions, and the role of religion and culture, garner less support from events in Egypt.</p>

Introduction

This introductory chapter provides a background of the Arab Spring protests, looking at how the cases of Egypt and Tunisia confirm a central lesson of past transitions: the collapse of an authoritarian regime may trigger a transition, but it does not always lead to successful democratic consolidation. A transition might instead result in reentrenched authoritarianism or any number of revolutionary alternatives. The successful progression from authoritarian breakdown to democratic consolidation is highly contingent on whether elites can compromise and cooperate during the transition, and make the necessary decisions and sacrifices to establish democratic norms and processes. Elite actors' ability to compromise and cooperate in turn depends on the level of polarization among them. This book argues that the political identities of opposition groups are shaped by their experiences of authoritarian repression; these identities in turn determine the levels of political polarization at the moment of transition.

A Latent Measure of Political Protest

In recent years, scholars have developed a number of new databases with which to measure protest. Although these databases have distinct coding rules, all attempt to capture incidents of social conflict. We argue, however, that due to a variety of sources of measurement error, subjective coding decisions, and operational specifications, no single indicator of protest adequately measures how much protest exists in a given place at a given time. As a result, empirical studies that employ these measures yield inferences with limited generalizability. To increase the generalizability of the empirical findings, we suggest using an Item Response Theory (IRT) approach to estimate a latent dimension of protest using nine different protest measures that vary in their operational specifications as well as their temporal and spatial coverage. The estimates of the IRT models are used in two ways. First, to demonstrate how existing measures differ, the IRT’s item estimates are used to compare the nine measures of protest based on their degree of difficulty (the quantity of latent protest required to observe a ‘1’ in the data) and their ability to discriminate (the speed with which changes in the latent quantity of protest affect the probability of observing a ‘1’ in the data). Second, the estimated quantity of protest is applied to both monthly and yearly models of authoritarian breakdown. The results demonstrate that the latent protest variable increases the out-of-sample classification of authoritarian breakdown events; and improves in-sample prediction relative to existing global protest variables. Our study illustrates the potential value of modeling a latent dimension of protest rather than solely relying on observed indicators.

8. Autocratic Transitions

Pathways of authoritarian regime transitions 143 Top-down paths to regime breakdown 143 Bottom-up paths to regime breakdown 149 Trajectories of authoritarian regime change 155 Pathways of authoritarian leader transitions 156 Conclusion 159 Key Questions 160 Further Reading 160 In Chapter 7, we identified the factors that political science research shows increase the risk of authoritarian breakdown. For political observers and policy analysts, knowing that factors such as economic decline, elite divsions, and youth bulges raise an autocracy’s risk of breakdown is useful because it helps us focus our analytic attention on the factors that matter most. However, only understanding the triggers of instability tells us relatively little about ...

Rethinking Democratic Diffusion: Bringing Regime Type Back In

Studies of democratic diffusion often emphasize geographic proximity: democratization in a country or region makes democratization nearby more likely. We argue that regime type has been underappreciated; authoritarian breakdown and democratization often diffuse along networks of similar regimes. A regime’s type affects its vulnerability to popular challenge, and regime similarity increases the likelihood that protest strategies developed against one regime are effective against similar regimes. We employ a qualitative case study from China to generate our theory, then test it quantitatively and with out-of-sample cases. We find that regime similarity strongly predicts autocratic breakdown and democratic diffusion, making both outcomes more likely. Including regime similarity significantly reduces the effect of geographic proximity, although geographic proximity may increase the effect of regime similarity. Reinterpreting democratic diffusion as a regime-type phenomenon calls for revision to conventional wisdom on the role of international factors in authoritarian breakdown and democratization.

Introduction

This book focuses on the few countries where actual transitions have happened: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Syria, where the authoritarian breakdown was only partial, will also be considered. Most of the book’s contributors adopt a comparative approach, either comparing those different countries among themselves, or comparing them with other Arab and non-Arab countries with similar features (i.e., Morocco, Algeria, and even Turkey). The choice was made to focus on a limited number of themes which have not received systematic comparative attention, and which offer crucial insights into the dynamics of the Arab transitions as they took place. The first part of this book deals with the dynamics of accommodation and polarization generated by the institutional process during transitions. The second part of the volume looks at the role of militaries in the different transitions. The third part of the book looks at several non-state actors that have impacted the transitions. The last part of the volume addresses the often overlooked issue of transitional justice, or the lack thereof.