12. International Drivers of Democracy

Geopolitics and the international order 231 Diffusion, diffusion-proofing, and autocracy promotion 232 External imposition 240 Linkage and leverage 243 Foreign aid 245 International organizations 249 Conclusion 251 Key Questions 252 Further Reading 252 Most scholars agree that democratic transitions tend to cluster in time and space. Samuel Huntington was the first to refer to this phenomenon as ‘waves of democracy’. The most recent and widely analysed wave, the ...

11. Institutional Drivers of Democracy

Political parties 212 Electoral systems 217 System of government 220 Federal versus unitary states 222 Consociationalism 223 Political institutions and democratization: A double-edged sword 226 Conclusion 227 Key Questions 228 Further Reading 228 In the former Soviet space (excluding the Baltics), some countries are more open and less authoritarian than others. Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Kyrgyzstan, for example, have enjoyed relatively greater political and civil liberties—and even periods of nascent democracy. Freedom House rated Ukraine as ‘Free’ shortly after the country’s Orange Revolution in 2004–05. In contrast, Russia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and the other Central Asian countries have been far more closed. What accounts for this difference? The former Soviet states share a number of common features like their communist history and high levels of corruption, making these factors poor candidates for explaining the political divergence. Economic factors also have little explanatory power, as some of the poorest countries like Georgia and Kyrgyzstan have been among the relatively more democratic. Instead, some scholars have emphasized the importance of institutions for explaining the different levels of freedom within the region. The relatively more open counties have parliamentary systems, while the more authoritarian countries have presidential systems (Hale 2016, 2011). When power is vested in a president rather than divided between a president and prime minister, the argument goes, it facilitates a president’s expansion of executive power....

8. Autocratic Transitions

Pathways of authoritarian regime transitions 143 Top-down paths to regime breakdown 143 Bottom-up paths to regime breakdown 149 Trajectories of authoritarian regime change 155 Pathways of authoritarian leader transitions 156 Conclusion 159 Key Questions 160 Further Reading 160 In Chapter 7, we identified the factors that political science research shows increase the risk of authoritarian breakdown. For political observers and policy analysts, knowing that factors such as economic decline, elite divsions, and youth bulges raise an autocracy’s risk of breakdown is useful because it helps us focus our analytic attention on the factors that matter most. However, only understanding the triggers of instability tells us relatively little about ...

6. The Durability of Autocracy

Authoritarian constituents and their role in stability 102 Authoritarian survival strategies 107 Other sources of authoritarian durability 114 Conclusion 120 Key Questions 121 Further Reading 121 Many authoritarian regimes in power today have been around for decades. The People’s Action Party, for example, has controlled Singapore since its independence in 1965. The Chinese Communist Party has been in power for even longer, approaching nearly seven decades of rule. And the monarchy in Oman has governed for more than two hundred years. Of course, not all authoritarian regimes have this staying power. Cambodia’s Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge ruled for only four years. Similarly, the Turkish military’s reign in the 1980s lasted just three years. This variation in longevity raises the question: what makes some authoritarian regimes more durable than others?...

5. The Consequences of Democracy and Authoritarian Regimes

Key themes 72 Regime type and conflict 74 Regime type and terrorism 78 Regime type and economic performance 81 Regime type and quality of life 86 Regime type and corruption 89 Regime type and repression 92 Conclusion 94 Key Questions 94 Further Reading 95 So far we have focused on defining different types of political systems. We discussed how to distinguish democracy from autocracy and the rising prevalence of ...

3. Defining Autocracy

Totalitarian regimes 37 Contemporary approaches to disaggregating autocracy 40 Blended regimes and changes over time 48 Conclusion 49 Key Questions 50 Further Reading 50 In Chapter 2, we defined democracy and identified the key characteristics of democratic regimes. In this chapter, we turn our attention to the other side of the political ledger and delve into the world of authoritarianism. Even a casual scan of international news headlines—filled with stories on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest feats, China’s rise, and Turkish President Erdoğan’s consolidation of power—reinforces the notion that today’s autocrats are resurgent. After a turbulent decade following the end of the Cold War, many authoritarian regimes have regained their footing and grown bolder and more capable of dealing with dissent....

10. Economic Drivers of Democracy

Economic development 189 Role of a middle class 193 Role of organized labour 195 Changes in beliefs and values 198 Economic inequality 199 Economic growth 203 Clientelism 204 Conclusion 207 Key Questions 208 Further Reading 209 Wealthy democracies do not become dictatorships. This assertion—backed by robust empirical support—has been a pillar of our contemporary understanding of democracy and dictatorship (...

7. Authoritarian Instability and Breakdown

What factors increase the risk of autocratic breakdown? 124 Elite divisions and defections 124 Youth bulge 129 Electoral fraud 132 Natural disasters 134 External factors 135 Conclusion 140 Key Questions 141 Further Reading 141 Forecasting the failure of authoritarian regimes is difficult. Many long-standing and seemingly stable autocracies have unraveled in a matter of weeks. No one predicted, for example, that the ...

15. Conclusion: The Future of Democracy

The future of democracy 292 Implications of an authoritarian resurgence for the global order 297 Key themes of the book 300 This book has covered a large body of research on democracy, autocracy, and democratization within the context of contemporary global dynamics. One of the key messages to emerge is that democracy is under threat. Mounting problems within a number of long-lived democracies—many of which we have discussed in this book—have raised questions about democracy’s future. Concurrently, we appear to be returning to a period of intense ideological competition between democracy and authoritarianism. China’s rise is challenging Western hegemony and many now see Beijing as an increasingly viable alternative to the democratic West. As the strategic competition between democracies and authoritarian powers like China and Russia has intensified, levels of democracy across the globe have plateaued and possibly declined....

2. Defining Democracy

Why define democracy 16 Conceptualizing democracy 17 Models of democracy 29 Conclusion 34 Key Questions 35 Further Reading 35 ‘Democracy’ and ‘dictatorship’ are familiar concepts. We generally think we know one when we see one. Sweden, Germany, and the United States, for example, are quite clearly democratic. And North Korea and Turkmenistan are unequivocally authoritarian. But how should we think about Hungary, Poland, or Venezuela? Should they be considered democracies? Do the political dynamics in these countries meet the minimum requirements of democracy? What are the minimum requirements of democracy?...