Abstract
Wildlife trade for non-native pets is an important and increasing driver of biodiversity loss and often compromises the standards required for protection. However, the growing interest in non-native pets has posed the issue of invasive non-native species to wildlife managers and conservationists. Instituting effective policies regarding non-native species requires a thorough understanding of the potential range of the species in new environments. In this study, we used an ensemble of ten species distribution models to predict the potential distribution for 23 commonly traded species of reptiles across the Middle East. We used ten modeling techniques implemented in the Biomod2 package and ensemble forecasts. Final models contained fourteen environmental variables, including climatic, topographic, and land cover/land use variables. Our results indicate that all Middle Eastern countries included suitable habitats for at least six species, except Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain for which the models did not predict any suitable habitats. Our study showed that Lebanon, Palestine, Turkey, and Israel face the highest risk of biological invasion by the species on the whole. Also, the results showed that Centrochelys sulcata, Chamaeleo calyptratus, and Trachemys scripta posed the highest risk of spreading in this area. Information on which species pose a greater danger as invaders and the possible impacts of their introduction will be a valuable contribution to the development of conservation plans and policies.