Assessing the Differential Impact of Vacancy on Criminal Violence in the City of St. Louis, MO

This study employs risk terrain modeling to identify the spatial correlates of aggravated assault and homicide in St. Louis, MO. We build upon the empirical literature by (1) replicating recent research examining the role of vacancy in the concentration of criminal violence and (2) examining whether the environmental correlates of violence vary between north and south St. Louis, a boundary that has long divided the city along racial and socioeconomic lines. Our results indicate that vacancy presents a strong, consistent risk for both homicide and aggravated assault and that this pattern emerges most clearly in the northern part of the city which is majority African American and has suffered chronic disinvestment. The concentration of criminal violence in South City is driven primarily by public hubs including housing, transportation, and schools. Our results underscore the importance of vacancy as a driver of the spatial concentration of violent crime and point to potential heterogeneity in risk terrain modeling results when applied to large metropolitan areas. Situational crime prevention strategies would be well served to consider such spatial contingencies as the risk factors driving violent crime are neither uniformly distributed across space nor uniform in their impact on criminal violence.

Environmental Factors Influencing Urban Homicide Clearance Rates: A Spatial Analysis of New York City

In this paper, we explore the conditions under which clearance rates improve by looking at the experience across New York City. Using one agency provides a control on the administrative differences that appear across other jurisdictions that have been studied, usually through cross-national analysis. Our analysis uses Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) to identify environmental features that relate to closed versus open homicide cases using two years of New York City Police Department (NYPD) data. This analysis is supplemented with an investigation of precinct-wide social structure variables to examine how context matters in influencing closure rates.

Risky Business: Examining the 80-20 Rule in Relation to a RTM Framework

The spatial elements of crime occurrence and the identification of crime generators/attractors have remained a prominent area of research. We focus on the utility of the 80-20 rule and the labeling of risky facilities in crime forecasting models with risk terrain modeling (RTM). We first examine whether the rule holds across types of crime generating places including liquor stores, department stores, hotels/motels, restaurants/bars, and apartment complexes. Next, we use our findings to test whether conducting preliminary analyses to identify risky facilities increases the predictive power of RTM versus using all possible facilities. When restricting the RTM approach to only risky facilities, results were more accurate than a traditional RTM approach. Findings and implications are nested in the utilization of the wider body of environmental criminology research to increase our understanding of where crime is likely to occur.

Applying Crime Pattern Theory and Risk Terrain Modeling to Examine Environmental Crime in Cambodia

The spatial-temporal analysis of crime has significantly evolved. One innovative technique recently developed is risk terrain modeling (RTM). RTM, however, has yet to be used for environmental crime. This research applies RTM and draws from crime pattern theory to examine illegal activities in two protected areas in Cambodia. Findings suggest that pathways, edges, areas with suitable targets, conservation posts, landcover, and prior incidents are related to fauna- and flora-related illegal activities, though this relationship varies by season, units of analysis, and study area (i.e., patrol-based compared with official designation). Implications for theory and policy are outlined.