Intimate Partner Violence and Subsequent Violent Offending Among Handgun Purchasers

Perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) often reoffend, and firearm access increases risk of severe injury or fatality. Prior research identifies an association between a history of violent misdemeanor convictions among handgun purchasers and increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent crime; the risk associated specifically with an IPV criminal history remains largely unexplored. The current study examined a cohort of 76,311 California adults who legally purchased a handgun in 2001 and followed them through 2013. Compared with purchasers who had no criminal history at the time of purchase, those with a history of only IPV ( n = 178) charges were at increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent Crime Index crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4–5.1), any violent crime (AHR, 3.2; 95% CI: 2.0–5.1), and an IPV crime (AHR, 5.2; 95% CI: 3.0–9.0). Purchasers with both IPV and non-IPV charges demonstrated the greatest risk of re-arrest relative to those with no criminal history. Despite the strength of the relationship between IPV and subsequent arrest, a small proportion of handgun purchasers with an IPV criminal history were re-arrested for firearm violence crimes, limiting application for risk assessment purposes. Results affirm prior research identifying IPV as a risk factor for future offending.

Neighborhood Racial and Economic Segregation and Disparities in Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objectives. To describe associations between neighborhood racial and economic segregation and violence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. For 13 US cities, we obtained zip code–level data on 5 violence outcomes from March through July 2018 through 2020. Using negative binomial regressions and marginal contrasts, we estimated differences between quintiles of racial, economic, and racialized economic segregation using the Index of Concentration at the Extremes as a measure of neighborhood privilege (1) in 2020 and (2) relative to 2018 through 2019 (difference-in-differences). Results. In 2020, violence was higher in less-privileged neighborhoods than in the most privileged. For example, if all zip codes were in the least privileged versus most privileged quintile of racialized economic segregation, we estimated 146.2 additional aggravated assaults (95% confidence interval = 112.4, 205.8) per zip code on average across cities. Differences over time in less-privileged zip codes were greater than differences over time in the most privileged for firearm violence, aggravated assault, and homicide. Conclusions. Marginalized communities endure endemically high levels of violence. The events of 2020 exacerbated disparities in several forms of violence. Public Health Implications. To reduce violence and related disparities, immediate and long-term investments in low-income neighborhoods of color are warranted. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print December 9, 2021:e1–e10. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306540 )

Police-involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era: A Study of 44 U.S. Cities

This study investigated whether homicides increased after protested police-involved deaths, focusing on the period after Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson in August 2014. It also tests for effects of legal cynicism by comparing effects in homicide and aggravated assault on the assumption that reporting of the latter is discretionary and police abuses may make communities reluctant to notify police. Using FBI data from 44 U.S. cities, homicide and assault rates from 2011 to 2019 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design and combined in a meta-analysis to calculate pooled effects. A meta-regression tested effect moderators including external investigations and city/county sociodemographic characteristics. With a conservative threshold of p ≤ .01, 21 of the 44 cities experienced a significant increase and one had a significant decrease. The pooled effect was a 26.1% increase in the homicide (99% CI: 15.3% to 36.8%). Aggravated assaults increased above baseline, though the effect was 15.2 percentage points smaller (99% CI: –26.7 to –3.6) than the effect in homicides. When outcomes were measured as percent change, there were no significant effect moderators, but when measured as absolute change, homicides increased to a greater extent when the death was subject to external investigation and in cities with higher Black populations, poverty rates, and baseline homicide rates. The findings suggest that protested police-involved deaths led to an increase in homicides and other violence due to the distrust fomented within the very communities whom police are meant to protect.

Self-Help and Black Firearm Crime

Self-help theory posits that a negative perception of police engenders firearm violence rather than simply amplifying individuals’ ownership of firearms for self-defense. A racially diverse police force may help decrease firearm use among Black citizens because marginalized groups in society often view a governmental institution as legitimate and impartial when the racial composition of the institution mirrors the population it represents. Analyses using multilevel data show that as the racial diversity of a city’s police department increases, Black criminal offenders are much less likely to use a firearm in an aggravated assault and in a violent crime. These findings buttress the claim that the institutional legitimacy of a police agency can be enhanced by descriptive racial representation.

Improving the clearance of serious crime: the case of aggravated assault

PurposeThis paper addresses the clearance of aggravated assaults (AAs). Specifically, the authors consider variations in these clearances over time for large agencies and test which crime, investigation and agency factors are associated with the likelihood of clearance by arrest or exceptional means. In doing this work, they seek to extend the understanding of how police can improve their investigations and ability to solve serious offenses.Design/methodology/approachUsing case, investigative and organizational data collected from seven large police departments selected on the basis of their trajectory of index crime clearances, and measures of case characteristics, investigative effort and organizational best practices, this paper uses descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze AA investigations and case clearance.FindingsKey findings include the following: trajectories of AA clearance vary across large agencies and covary with a measure of organizational best practices, and the relationship between investigative effort and case clearance can depend on organizational practices. The authors find that measures of investigative effort are either not related to case clearance or there is a negative association.Research limitations/implicationsNow that police researchers have a better understanding of AAs and their investigations, they need to test how this knowledge can be used to improve the quality of police investigations. Tests, preferably multi-agency randomized control trials, of new investigative strategies and organizational practices are needed.Originality/valueThis research is original in that it uses a multi-agency sample and crime, investigation and organizational measures to understand AA clearance.

Assessing the Differential Impact of Vacancy on Criminal Violence in the City of St. Louis, MO

This study employs risk terrain modeling to identify the spatial correlates of aggravated assault and homicide in St. Louis, MO. We build upon the empirical literature by (1) replicating recent research examining the role of vacancy in the concentration of criminal violence and (2) examining whether the environmental correlates of violence vary between north and south St. Louis, a boundary that has long divided the city along racial and socioeconomic lines. Our results indicate that vacancy presents a strong, consistent risk for both homicide and aggravated assault and that this pattern emerges most clearly in the northern part of the city which is majority African American and has suffered chronic disinvestment. The concentration of criminal violence in South City is driven primarily by public hubs including housing, transportation, and schools. Our results underscore the importance of vacancy as a driver of the spatial concentration of violent crime and point to potential heterogeneity in risk terrain modeling results when applied to large metropolitan areas. Situational crime prevention strategies would be well served to consider such spatial contingencies as the risk factors driving violent crime are neither uniformly distributed across space nor uniform in their impact on criminal violence.

Criminal Justice Article Review: Aggravated Assault

The study uses geographically weighted regression (WGR) and the emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) methodologies to examine the impact of immigrant and ethnic and racial concentration on patterns of aggravated assault and larceny in Miami.

Police-involved deaths and the impact on homicide rates in the post-Ferguson era: a study of 44 US cities

This study investigated whether in the post-Ferguson era, homicide rates increased in cities where there was a protested police-involved death. It also tests for evidence of two potential mechanisms: 1) legal cynicism, measured as an increase in homicides (where reporting is less discretionary) that is larger than aggravated assaults (where reporting is more discretionary), which would suggest reduced reporting; and 2) the moderating influence of an external investigation as an indicator of de-policing. Homicide and assault trends in 44 US cities with a police-involved protest were analysed using an interrupted time series design. Results were combined using a meta-analysis, and moderators were tested in meta-regressions. Averaged across all cities, there was an acute and sustained 25.7% increase in the homicide rate (99% CI: 15.0% to 36.4%). Aggravated assault rates also increased above baseline, though it was 15.1 percentage points smaller than homicide rate effects (99% CI: -26.6% to -3.6%). Whether the police-involved death was investigated by an external organisation had no detectable effect (p = 0.089). The findings suggest that protested deaths at the hands of police caused increases in both legal cynicism and violence within the communities they are meant to protect.

Can Victim, Offender, and Situational Characteristics Differentiate Between Lethal and Non-Lethal Incidents of Intimate Partner Violence Occurring Among Adults?

This study investigates risk factors that predict the likelihood of homicide as a result of intimate partner violence. Using a subsample of the 2011 National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data, we estimate binary logistic regression models comparing homicide by intimate partners to aggravated assault by intimate partners. Several victim characteristics (race, age), offender characteristics (age, race, relationship with victim), and situational characteristics (weapon use, offender alcohol use) differentiated homicide incidents from aggravated assault incidents. The findings provide evidence that characteristics of victims, offenders, and events contribute to the likelihood that intimate partner violence will escalate to homicide.

Exclusionary School Discipline and Neighborhood Crime

The author investigates the impact of law-and-order schools, defined as those that rely heavily on exclusionary discipline (i.e., suspension and expulsion) as a form of punishment, on neighborhood crime. Additional analyses are performed to assess whether the effects of punitive school discipline on local crime are moderated by neighborhood disadvantage. Findings suggest that suspensions are associated with increases in local crime—evidence of a macro-level school-to-prison pipeline—while expulsions are generally associated with fewer crime incidents. Although disciplinary exclusions appear to increase crime at fairly consistent rates across levels of neighborhood disadvantage, both exclusion types are associated with more aggravated assault in areas with higher levels of disadvantage. As such, institutional processes of the school appear to help explain variations in community crime.