A Comparison of Burglary Near Repeat Victimization Between Rural and Urban Areas Using a Target-Based Assessment of Criminal Opportunity

Numerous studies have shown that near repeat victimization of burglaries can account for a substantial minority of burglaries in urban settings. Using a method based on the distribution of potential targets to determine the size of spatial bandwidths, the presence of burglary near repeats in rural areas was examined and compared to the level of near repeats in urban areas. A significant burglary near repeat pattern was observed in rural areas, but was restricted to the spatial and temporal bands that were closest to and most recently after a previous burglary. The proportion of all burglaries that were near repeats in this nearest spatial and temporal bands was greater than that observed in urban areas. The findings lead to extending how the boost account and offender foraging principles may apply in rural settings, and the identification of crime prevention opportunities that counter near repeats in rural areas.

Breaking the Chain: How Arrests Reduce the Probability of Near Repeat Crimes

Objectives: Near repeat patterns have been identified for a host of different crimes, but effective strategies to reduce near repeats have had more variable results. This study identifies near repeat crime patterns in Dallas, TX, and examines the effects of an arrest on reducing the probability of future crime. Method: Using open-source crime data from the Dallas Police Department from July 2014 through June 2018, we identified near repeat patterns for shootings, interpersonal robberies, residential burglaries, and thefts from motor vehicles. Logistic regression models were used to test the effect of an arrest on reducing near repeat crimes; controls for geographic, demographic, and temporal factors were included in each model. Results: Near repeat calculations suggest violent crime clustered closely in time and space, with property crime dispersed over larger spatial and temporal dimensions. Across all four crime types, findings suggest arrests resulted in 20%–40% reductions in a near repeat follow-up crime. Conclusions: In line with past research on shootings, arrests reduced the likelihood of subsequent crimes. This suggests policing strategies to increase arrests may be a fruitful way to reduce near repeat crime patterns.

Crime mapping features

In this paper tools, organization and tactics of crime mapping are analyzed. The directions of application of mapping for maintenance of public safety and order, in criminal intelligence process, etc. are outlined. The domestic experience of mapping is briefly analyzed. The main goals that are achieved with the use of mapping are defined. Features of visualization of criminogenic cells are revealed. Pin mapping features (when points which symbolize a certain event are placed on the map on the corresponding coordinates) are outlined. Kernel density mapping is described, which makes it much easier to detect criminogenic foci, as hot-spot maps clearly reflect the concentration of certain events in the region. A method of mapping using proportional symbol mapping is disclosed when the increase in the size of the symbol denoting a point on the map is proportional to the increase in the number of events or other parameters at these coordinates. The building of geographical profiles of criminals is briefly described. The theoretical basis of mapping for the prediction of crimes is outlined. Prediction strategies based on equations and machine calculations and actuarial strategies based on expertise and clinical strategy are analyzed. Considerations are given to the appropriateness of applying appropriate strategies in different countries. The phenomenon of near repeat patterns is studied. Some software solutions for the implementation of the tasks of mapping criminal manifestations and the use of artificial intelligence systems for this purpose are described. Examples are given. It is noted that the use of cartography to prevent and predict crimes in Ukraine is in its infancy. Some solutions are proposed that could improve the situation in the field of crime mapping in Ukraine.

Homicide concentration and retaliatory homicide near repeats: An examination in a Latin American urban setting

Despite numerous attempts to decrease homicides in the Latin American region, high homicide levels have persisted. Examining four cities in Rio de Janeiro, the research reveals the intense geographic concentration of homicides in each city, but illustrates differences in the extent of homicide concentration when using a variety of crime concentration measures. Single events involving multiple homicides and a homicide near repeat pattern are observed, with almost all these incidents taking place in areas of homicide concentration. The findings suggest that programmes targeted to areas of homicide concentration, including interventions that suppress the likelihood of future incidents, could decrease homicides.

‘Surfing’ burglaries with forced entry in Catalonia: Large-scale testing of near repeat victimization theory

In recent years, various academic studies have proposed crime forecasting models based on the concept of repeat victimization. Some of them have been modelled from the area of differential equations and others from the perspective of spatio-temporal statistics, within the framework of point processes. These models have tended towards a certain sophistication in their formulation, which at times impedes understanding of the predictive mechanism and how it adapts to different realities. Predictive models that function well in one environment or society do not appear to do so in others. In this article, the possibility of crime forecasting for burglaries with forced entry in Catalonia is studied from the perspective of near repeat victimization on a larger territorial scale than is usual. To this effect, the explicative and predictive possibilities of this criminological theory are explored and a predictive system that does not require mathematical or statistical models is proposed. We found that a large part of the series of burglaries with forced entry in residences in Catalonia between 2014 and 2015 follow patterns of near repeat victimization. In addition, the average intensity of burglaries in space–time was high, as was the standard deviation. This system is adaptable to different environments and gives police forces the opportunity to improve preventative strategies and to optimize resources using standard tools. Last, the limitations of this approach are debated and new lines of investigation proposed that could increase its predictive capacity without abandoning the concept of repeat victimization.