Market Overreaction at the Beginning of Covid-19 Pandemic Periods in Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study aims to determine whether the markets overreaction occurred in Indonesian capital market in the beginning of Covid-19 pandemic periods, especially in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This market overreaction is the one of anomalies in capital market and is opposite the efficient market hypotheses. Bad or good information is a trigger for investors reactions that cause anomalies such as this market overreaction. The information can be sourced from internal and external conditions of the company. The external condition that is currently affecting the national and international economy are the Corona pandemic (Covid-19) which has spread around the end of 2019. Based on the phenomenon occurs, the purposes of this study are to test: (a) Did market overreaction occur in Indonesian capital market in the beginning of Covid-19 pandemic periods? (b) Is a contrarian strategy relevant to be implemented? (c) Does the market risk factor based on the CAPM will affect the abnormal return? Keywords: CAPM; Market Overreaction; Return Reversal

PROFITABILITAS STRATEGI KONTRATRIAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

The efficient market hypothesis implies that no investor can get an abnormal return. This hypothesis has become a research topic that many researchers refer to. However, this hypothesis is strongly refuted after the discovery of several anomalies that are inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. One of them was found by De Bondt and Thaler (1985), that stock prices have a certain tendency, namely that stocks that perform well in one period will become stocks that perform poorly in the next period. Vice versa. This phenomenon is called overreaction or overreaction. These findings motivated further researchers to apply contrarian strategies to gain an advantage when there was an overreaction. This research is a study that is intended to obtain evidence of the ability of contrarian strategies in obtaining abnormal returns. This study aims to analyze the occurrence of overreaction on stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and to analyze the advantages of implementing a contrarian strategy for investors. This research was conducted at companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The companies selected were 100 companies with the most active transactions during 2019. From the results of data analysis, it can be concluded that there was a price reversal for the shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This result is quite strong because it has been tested for up to 4 weeks. Despite the price reversal, the contrarian strategy was not able to generate significant returns for investors.Keywords :contrarian strategy, abnormal return, overreaction

Financial liberalization and the behavior of reversals in emerging market economies

PurposeThis paper investigates the behavior of contrarian strategy payoffs under varying degrees of financial liberalization in the context of Asia-Pacific emerging market namely China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines and Thailand for the period 1997–2017. These markets represent economies that display a gradual change in the degree of financial liberalization instead of fully opening their markets to foreign investors at once.Design/methodology/approachUsing a daily dataset of 2,468 firms and four different measures of the degree of financial liberalization, the paper employs portfolio formation, panel regressions and binary modeling methods to reveal the impact of partial and complete financial liberalization on contrarian returns.FindingsThis paper documents a negative relationship between the degree of financial liberalization and contrarian strategy payoffs. The results further indicate that small-sized emerging markets reveal more significant and higher contrarian returns as compared to their larger counterparts. Moreover, the returns are significantly higher during negative market states, higher volatility and crises periods. The study findings are consistent with the investor-base broadening hypothesis.Practical implicationsThe findings may serve as a useful input for investors and fund managers to devise contrarian investment strategies in emerging market economies. Together, the study provides additional insights for policymakers in managing financial liberalization and integration policies within their respective countries.Originality/valueThis study provides a novel viewpoint by examining the relationship between the degree of financial liberalization and contrarian strategy payoffs. The authors contribute to the existing debate by shifting the discussion to the investor-based broadening argument in which small and less liberalized emerging markets offer opportunities for investors and fund managers to produce abnormal contrarian returns that cannot be earned by other conventional investment strategies.

Investors’ Reactions to Extreme Events in the Hungarian Stock Market

This paper examines investors’ reactions to extreme events in the Hungarian stock market. We seek to answer the research question whether following extreme events any overreaction of investors can be observed on the Budapest Stock Exchange. With a view to answering the research question, we identify extreme events based on extreme returns on the market portfolio and then – using an event study – we examine abnormal returns on winner and loser equities. After examining investors’ reactions, we inspect the performance of the contrarian strategy in the created event windows. The main result of our research is the presentation that – based on the analysis of the differences between the average cumulative abnormal returns after extreme events – investor overreactions can be observed in the Hungarian stock market. The loser portfolios relating to extreme events significantly outperform winner portfolios connected to the event. The excess return of the contrarian strategy cannot be attributed to differences in the market risk of winner and loser portfolios. The excess return of the strategy can be shown only under tighter extreme value thresholds. The clustering of the event windows with short-term reversal, high market volatility and extreme events is beneficial to the performance of the contrarian strategy. In addition, our research also shows that the purchase of loser portfolios or the development of a contrarian strategy after extreme events may generate profit for investors, since after extreme events the loser portfolios usually beat the market on a horizon of 21 days.

ANOMALI OVERREACTION HYPOTHESIS DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Penelitian ini melakukan pengujian terhadap overreaction hypothesis, dalam hipotesis ini disebutkan bahwa portofolio loser setelah perioda pengujian akan memiliki rata-rata abnormal return kumulatif yang lebih baik, sedangkan portofolio winner setelah perioda pengujian akan mengalami pembalikan return, dalam hal ini rata-rata abnormal return kumulatif return portofolio winner akan menunjukkan performance yang semakin memburuk.Fenomena pembalikan return ini dikenal dengan anomali winner-losser.Penelitian ini dengan menggunakan data saham yang terdaftar dalam LQ45 selama perioda 2016-2018, penelitian ini menemukan fenomena pembalikan return secara random, fenomena pembalikan return pada setiap minggu ke 4 secara acak membuktikan bahwa overreaction hypothesis terbukti.Hal ini membuktokan adanya fenomena anomali winner losser di passar modal Indonesia selama perioda 2016-2018.Keywords : overreaction hypothesis, contrarian strategy, market anomaly, portofolio Losser,portofolio winner

Destabilizing momentum trading and counterbalancing contrarian strategy by large trader groups

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess trading strategies adopted by each large trader group and examine their effects on the volatility in the interest rate futures markets. Design/methodology/approach The Grinblatt et al.'s (1995) measure of momentum strategy is used to estimate the degree momentum and contrarian strategies. Then, regression analysis is used to determine the effects of trading strategies on volatility. Findings Up until 2005, the trades by non-clearing member firms in the futures market were separated from institutional traders providing us the opportunity to study trading strategies adopted by large distinct trading groups and its effects on volatility in the futures markets. It is found that individual traders use momentum strategy, whereas market makers and institutional traders use contrarian strategy. Momentum strategy adopted by individual traders increases volatility whereas contrarian strategy dampens volatility. Moreover, it is found that institutional traders engage more actively in contrarian trading when individual traders cause excessive volatility. The two distinct trading groups were separately tracked prior to 2005 giving us a unique window to determine the effect of the traders that conduct momentum trading as opposed to the ones that are contrarian traders. After the reclassification, the institutional trading group exhibited weaker contrarian strategy which can be attributed to the inclusion of non-clearing firm traders. Originality/value This study documents the first empirical evidence that shows off-exchange futures trader group is not composed of only pure noise makers, but there are short-term forecasters in its group. The authors also show a unique finding that noises caused by off-exchange group is from momentum strategy that they use, whereas contrarian strategy is used by institutional trader lower volatility.

KINERJA PORTOFOLIO SAHAM BERDASARKAN STRATEGI INVESTASI MOMENTUM PADA INDEKS KOMPAS100

The purpose of this study was to determine the performance of the stock portfolio using the momentum investment strategy on the Kompas100 index. The scope of this research area are companies incorporated in the Kompas100 Index listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2012-2017. The number of samples used was 53 samples. The method of data collection is done through non-participant observation and using two different test analysis techniques on average. Based on the results of data analysis it was found that the results of the two different test averages of Sharpe Index on the winner's portfolio get insignificant results and the loser portfolio gets significant results. This made no momentum but a contrarian strategy, where the loser portfolio measured by the Sharpe Index significantly decreased during the ownership period of 3, 6, 12 months and made the loser portfolio suffer prolonged losses. The results of this study reflect that contrarian strategy is a strategy used by investors to expect a reversal of stock returns at a certain time period, namely the rate of return that is initially positive or negative is expected to experience a reversal in a certain period of time. Keywords: stock portfolio performance, momentum investment strategy, Kompas100 index.