METHOD OF SYNTHESIS OF THE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT SYSTEM

Systems of complex estimation (CO) based on a dichotomous tree of criteria and a set of criteria convolution matrices (generalized criteria) are widely used in the evaluation of a wide variety of ob-jects. Purpose of the study. To build a CO system for a given set of criteria, you need to solve two problems: 1. To choose the structure of the dichotomous tree of criteria. 2. To define matrix convolutions of pairs of criteria (generalized criteria) at each vertex of the tree (except for hanging ones). The article deals with the second problem, i.e. the problem of determining matrices the criteria convolution. In practice, this task is often solved based on expert opinions. Materials and methods. Let us assume that there are a set of options (a variant is a set of criteria estimates) and experts have defined complex estimates for each option from this set. The task is to define matrix convolu-tions at each vertex of the tree such that the CO of each variant in the resulting system CO is equal to the EXPERT estimate. The paper defines a class of unified CO mechanisms that meet the following conditions: 1. All matrices of the unified complex estimation mechanism have the same dimension. 2. For any matrix all rows are different and all columns are different. 3. All matrices are monotonous in rows and columns; 4. If all the variant scores are equal to a certain score, then the complex score is equal to this score. Results. Two cases are considered. In the first case, experts can give estimates of options with any set of criteria estimates. In the second case, experts can give a CO of only complete options, that is, options that contain estimates of all criteria. For the first case, an efficient algorithm with an estimate of computational complexity of the order of lm2 is proposed, where l is the number of crite-ria, and m is the number of gradations of the rating scale. The algorithm makes significant use of the 4 property of unified mechanisms. For the second case, we propose a method for solving the problem by constructing “top-down” matrices, i.e. constructing a matrix for the root vertex, then for adjacent ones, and so on. Conclu-sion. Thus, the paper proposes algorithms for the synthesis of unified mechanisms for complex eva-luation, in which the number of required expert options is minimal.

Management of small business development in the region

Subject. This article discusses the economic relations and institutional and managerial processes in the sphere of State regulation of small business development at the regional level. Objectives. The article aims to develop recommendations on improvement of the management system and strengthening of State influence in the sphere of small business development in the region. Methods. For the study, we used the economic and statistical methods, graphic and expert estimate techniques, and the literature review approach. Results. The article summarizes the experience of small business operations in foreign countries and assesses the developments of Russian economists dealing with small businesses and regional development. It defines the factors constraining the development of small business in the region and shows the main areas of its support by the State. To conduct a comprehensive assessment of small business development in the region, the article offers an original scorecard. Conclusions. Implementing the proposed recommendations will help assess the condition of small business and apply appropriate tools in the system of State management of small business development in regions.

QUANTITATIVE METHOD OF ESTIMATE OF AERODROME BIRDS HAZARD RISK

The formalized parameters of bird hazard assessment at the aerodrome are presented. The size of total biomass of all birds that are in a zone of aircraft movement reflects the aggregate characteristic of ornithological hazard. This is a dynamic parameter, its dimensionality is kg/hour‧km2. The size of biomass is differentiated on high-altitude layers and the directions of its movement. In addition, it is necessary to estimate activity of each bird species at the aerodrome as component parts of bird hazard. Its dimensionality is individuals/hour‧km2. One more parameter of aerodrome bird hazard in the assessment process of activity of each bird species is the behavior pattern of birds in aerodrome airspace. This parameter will allow to reveal the sources of bird arrivals at the airfield and to detect the causes of it. Assessment of this share is necessary to choose the effective measures to decrease bird strike risk. The birds recording technique at airfield has been designed to obtain quantitative values of main parameters of bird hazard. The birds recording is carried out from the observation points located on the opposite sides of the runway. The birds recording technique is based on visual detection of birds, identification of species, sex and age determination, expert estimate of altitude and direction of their movement. Except the flying birds, the foraging and resting birds on the ground are also considered. The contribution of these birds to the aggregate value of ornithological hazard is bigger than overflying birds. The birds recording technique is described in detail. The norms and frequency of birds recording to obtain data on daily and seasonal dynamics of aerodrome bird hazard are substantiated. The algorithm of processing the results of birds recording and calculation of the main parameters value of bird hazard is stated. Gradations of bird hazard and relevant measures to decrease quantity of birds at airfield are proposed.