Analysis of Probability Distribution of Muzzle Velocity for Chrome Plated Barrel

To confirm the change of muzzle velocity and the most suitable probability distribution model of the 155 mm K9 howitzer barrel with chrome plating and changed rifling. Using a statistical program, the muzzle velocity were plotted on a normal distribution, a 2-parameter and 3-parameter Weibull distribution on a probability paper. Also, statistical parameters were estimated and muzzle velocity fitness test and probability of K676 charge were plotted. In both the chrome-plated with standard rifling and changed rifling for K9 barrel, the 2-parameter and 3-parameter Weibull distribution were skewed to the left compared to the normal distribution. It was confirmed that the muzzle velocity of the K9 barrel with chromium-plated is suitable for the normal distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution model.

Speculation and the End of Fiction

The propensity for speculation within modernity is well established. It ranges from the artifices of the “as if” – the thrills of imagining that everything that is might also be different, codified by Robert Musil as an inherent “sense of the possible” – to the daring betting on the “what if,” invoking better futures with an utopian spark or grim prospects to hedge oneself against. The twin inclinations to imagine the different and to project the future are the hinges of the modern imagination. In the early eighteenth century, three powerful media of speculation came into being almost at the same time: the calculus of probability, paper money, and literary fiction. In different ways, they enabled agencies of correlating what is and what is not – whether in terms of risk assessment, circulation of capital, or social self fashioning. By the beginning of the 21st century, these media of speculation seem to have reached a point of excess. With big data, probabilistic speculation is about to accustom us to read “what if”-questions in an altogether indicative mode, just as big finance has succeeded in reversing the hierarchy between value assets and the media of liquid capital. This then raises the question of what happens to the third medium of speculation in our late modernity, that of fiction? This article attempts to diagnose the fate of fiction in an age of hypertrophied speculation, how practices of fiction-making migrate, how the functions of fiction transform, and eventually how our present notion of fiction is due for a conceptual makeover.

Plotting positions for fitting distributions and extreme value analysis

Random data are often examined on plotting paper to determine appropriate probability distributions and distribution parameters for extreme-value analyses and other applications. Engineers are not always aware of criteria that have been developed and published for selecting the type of probability paper, nor of the impact that the selection can have on results. Some of the advice available in the literature is inaccurate, so it is important that the basis for using the correct method be clearly demonstrated. In the present paper, it is confirmed using straightforward simulation techniques that use of plotting position methods specific to the distribution being considered is appropriate and that use of other plotting position methods can give inaccurate results.

Effects of Notch Size on Strength Distribution of Ceramic Components

The dependence of strength on notch radii of ceramic components is presented. The strength is exponential decay as the notch radius decrease, the smooth specimen that corresponds to the infinity notch radius topped the fracture strength, but the lowest value relys on the micro feature of the materials. Plotted the strengths on Weibull and Normal probability paper, the fitness coefficients reveal that the strength of smooth specimen, as the past literatures indicated, follows Weibull distribution, but the strength of notched specimen follows Normal distribution better. Such result is due to the fact that the decreasing notch radius reduces and limits the effective original fracture volume, when the notch becomes a slim crack, the weakest link place becomes deterministic.

Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams

The reliability diagram is a common diagnostic graph used to summarize and evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Its strengths lie in the ease with which it is produced and the transparency of its definition. While visually appealing, major long-noted shortcomings lie in the difficulty of interpreting the graph visually; for the most part, ambiguities arise from variations in the distributions of forecast probabilities and from various binning procedures. A resampling method for assigning consistency bars to the observed frequencies is introduced that allows for immediate visual evaluation as to just how likely the observed relative frequencies are under the assumption that the predicted probabilities are reliable. Further, an alternative presentation of the same information on probability paper eases quantitative evaluation and comparison. Both presentations can easily be employed for any method of binning.