capsizing probability
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Author(s):  
L F Hu ◽  
Q Z Zhang ◽  
W Y Zhang ◽  
H B Qi

The International Maritime Organization is currently establishing second generation intact stability criteria, the dead ship stability is considered one important criterion, so the development of its direct stability assessment regulation has become a topic undergoing close review. In this paper a peak-over-threshold (POT) method is proposed to evaluate the dead ship stability, which focuses on the statistical extrapolation that exceed the threshold, also the traditional Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to approve the method. On the basis of verification calculation of the sample ship CEHIPAR2792, the capsizing probability of a certain warship is also conducted. Moreover, the influence of initial stability height GM and effective wave slope coefficient Y on the capsizing probability is analysed. The results and the possible reason for the difference are examined. This study is expected to provide technical support for the second-generation stability criteria and establish the capsizing probability of damaged dead ship stability.


2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-126
Author(s):  
Lifen Hu ◽  
Chen Yao ◽  
Wubin Li ◽  
Xiangyang Wang ◽  
Zhongyu Sun

AbstractThis study proposes a method for combining capsizing probability and flooding process to investigate the time-domain dead ship stability of a damaged ship. It focuses on a nonlinear righting lever GZ curve solution in the following aspects: one aspect subjects the influence of damaged tanks on a hull shape to the wind and wave, and the other aspect is based on a real-time calculation of the GZ curve. According to 1‐degree-of-freedom rolling equation, the damaged capsizing probability model is established through fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation. Also, the model solution is applied on the basis of Visual Basic 6.0 language, and the results are compared with the NAPA platform. The most significant development in this study is combining time-domain flooding process and capsizing probability calculation. To verify the proposed methods, two damaged fishery bureau vessels are used as the sample ships. Results of time-domain capsizing probability under different loading conditions are compared, and the difference and its possible reasons are analyzed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 161 (A3) ◽  

The International Maritime Organization is currently establishing second generation intact stability criteria, the dead ship stability is considered one important criterion, so the development of its direct stability assessment regulation has become a topic undergoing close review. In this paper a peak-over-threshold (POT) method is proposed to evaluate the dead ship stability, which focuses on the statistical extrapolation that exceed the threshold, also the traditional Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to approve the method. On the basis of verification calculation of the sample ship CEHIPAR2792, the capsizing probability of a certain warship is also conducted. Moreover, the influence of initial stability height GM and effective wave slope coefficient on the capsizing probability is analysed. The results and the possible reason for the difference are examined. This study is expected to provide technical support for the second-generation stability criteria and establish the capsizing probability of damaged dead ship stability.


2019 ◽  
Vol 161 (A3) ◽  
Author(s):  
LF Hu ◽  
QZ Zhang ◽  
WY Zhang ◽  
HB Qi

The International Maritime Organization is currently establishing second generation intact stability criteria, the dead ship stability is considered one important criterion, so the development of its direct stability assessment regulation has become a topic undergoing close review. In this paper a peak-over-threshold (POT) method is proposed to evaluate the dead ship stability, which focuses on the statistical extrapolation that exceed the threshold, also the traditional Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to approve the method. On the basis of verification calculation of the sample ship CEHIPAR2792, the capsizing probability of a certain warship is also conducted. Moreover, the influence of initial stability height GM and effective wave slope coefficient on the capsizing probability is analysed. The results and the possible reason for the difference are examined. This study is expected to provide technical support for the second-generation stability criteria and establish the capsizing probability of damaged dead ship stability.


2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-251
Author(s):  
Li-fen Hu ◽  
Ke-zheng Zhang ◽  
Xiao-ying Li ◽  
Run-xin Chang

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroki Yoshizumi ◽  
Takashi Tsuji ◽  
Naoya Umeda ◽  
Atsuo Maki

For examining a numerical simulation model for the IMO (International Maritime Organization) second generation intact stability criteria for dead ship condition, capsizing probability of a ship in random beam wind and waves was estimated by the model experiments and is compared with that estimated with numerical simulation using a coupled roll model (sway-heave-roll-pitch) to be used for new stability criterion development for dead ship stability. By using the memory effect function to calculate radiation force, the simulation model is well validated in capsizing probability with the existing model experiment of a ship suffering harmonic resonance. However, the simulation model fails to estimate the case of a large passenger ship which suffers parametric resonance in beam seas.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 4907-4945
Author(s):  
L. Wu ◽  
Y. Wen ◽  
D. Wu ◽  
J. Zhang ◽  
C. Xiao

Abstract. In heavy sea conditions related to tropical cyclones (TCs), losses to shipping caused by capsizing are greater than other kinds of accidents. Therefore, it is important to consider capsizing risk in the algorithms used to generate safe-economic routes that avoid tropical cyclones (RATC). A safe-economic routing and assessment model for RATC, based on a dynamic forecasting environment, is presented in this paper. In the proposed model, a ship's risk is quantified using its capsizing probability caused by heavy wave conditions. Forecasting errors in the numerical models are considered in the ship risk assessment according to their distribution characteristics. A case study shows that: the economic cost of RATCs is associated not only to the ship's speed, but also to the acceptable capsizing probability which is related with the ship's characteristic and the cargo loading condition. Case study results demonstrate that the optimal routes obtained from the model proposed in this paper are superior to those produced by traditional methods.


2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 1857-1893
Author(s):  
L. C. Wu ◽  
Y. Q. Wen ◽  
D. Y. Wu

Abstract. In heavy sea conditions related to tropical cyclones (TCs), losses to shipping caused by capsizing are greater than other kinds of accidents. Therefore, it is important to consider capsizing risk in the algorithms used to generate safe-economic routes that avoid tropical cyclones (RATC). A safe-economic routing and assessment model for RATC, based on a dynamic forecasting environment, is presented in this paper. In the proposed model, a ship's risk is quantified using its capsizing probability caused by heavy wave conditions. Forecasting errors in the numerical models are considered according to their distribution characteristics. A case study shows that: the economic cost of RATCs is associated not only to the ship's speed and the acceptable risk level, but also to the ship's wind and wave resistance. Case study results demonstrate that the optimal routes obtained from the model proposed in this paper are significantly superior to those produced by traditional methods.


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