Southern Ocean polynyas in CMIP6 models

Polynyas facilitate air–sea fluxes, impacting climate-relevant properties such as sea ice formation and deep water production. Despite their importance, polynyas have been poorly represented in past generations of climate models. Here we present a method to track the presence, frequency and spatial distribution of polynyas in the Southern Ocean in 27 models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and two satellite-based sea ice products. Only half of the 27 models form open-water polynyas (OWPs), and most underestimate their area. As in satellite observations, three models show episodes of high OWP activity separated by decades of no OWP, while other models unrealistically create OWPs nearly every year. In contrast, the coastal polynya area is overestimated in most models, with the least accurate representations occurring in the models with the coarsest horizontal resolution. We show that the presence or absence of OWPs is linked to changes in the regional hydrography, specifically the linkages between polynya activity with deep water convection and/or the shoaling of the upper water column thermocline. Models with an accurate Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and wind stress curl have too frequent OWPs. Biases in polynya representation continue to exist in climate models, which has an impact on the regional ocean circulation and ventilation that should be addressed. However, emerging iceberg discharge schemes, more adequate vertical grid type or overflow parameterisation are anticipated to improve polynya representations and associated climate prediction in the future.

Modelling landfast sea ice and its influence on ocean-ice interactions in the area of the Totten Glacier, East Antarctica

<p>The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica is of major climate interest because of the large fluctuation of its grounding line and of its potential vulnerability to climate change. The ocean above the continental shelf in front of the Totten ice shelf exhibits large extents of landfast sea ice with low interannual variability. Landfast sea ice is mostly not or sole crudely represented in current climate models. These models are potentially omitting or misrepresenting important effects related to this type of sea ice, such as its influence on coastal polynya locations. Yet, the impact of the landfast sea<br>ice on the ocean – ice shelf interactions is poorly understood. Using a series of high-resolution, regional NEMO-LIM-based experiments including an<br>explicit treatment of ocean – ice shelf interactions over the years 2001-2010, we simulate a realistic landfast sea ice extent in the area of Totten Glacier<br>through a combination of a sea ice tensile strength parameterisation and a grounded iceberg representation. We show that the presence of landfast sea<br>ice impacts seriously both the location of coastal polynyas and the ocean mixed layer depth along the coast, in addition to favouring the intrusion of<br>mixed Circumpolar Deep Water into the ice shelf cavities. Depending on the local bathymetry and the landfast sea ice distribution, landfast sea ice affects ice shelf cavities in different ways, either by increasing the ice melt (+28% for the Moscow University ice shelf) or by reducing its seasonal cycle<br>(+10% in March-May for the Totten ice shelf). This highlights the importance of including an accurate landfast sea ice representation in regional and<br>eventually global climate models</p>

The role of tides on the carbonate chemistry of a coastal polynya in the south-eastern Weddell Sea

<p>Tides have a large impact on coastal polynyas around Antarctica. We investigate the effect of semi-diurnal tidal cycles on the seawater carbonate chemistry in a coastal polynya hugging the Ekström Ice Shelf in the south-eastern Weddell Sea. This region experiences some of the strongest tides in the Southern Ocean. We assess the implications for the contribution of coastal polynyas to the carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) air-sea flux of the Weddell Sea.</p><p>Two site visits, in January 2015 and January 2019, are intercompared in terms of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration, total alkalinity, pH, and CO<sub>2</sub> partial pressure (pCO<sub>2</sub>). The tides induce large variability in the carbonate chemistry of the coastal polynya in the austral summer: DIC concentrations vary between 2174 and 2223 umol kg<sup>-1</sup>.</p><p>The tidal fluctuation in the DIC concentration can swing the polynya from a sink to a source of atmospheric CO<sub>2 </sub>on a semi-diurnal timescale. We attribute these changes to the mixing of different water masses. The amount of variability induced by tides depends on – and is associated with – large scale oceanographic and biogeochemical processes that affect the characteristics and presence of the water masses being mixed, such as the rate of sea ice melt.</p><p>Sampling strategies in Antarctic coastal polynyas should always take tidal influences into account. This would help to reduce biases in our understanding of how coastal polynyas contribute to the CO<sub>2</sub> uptake by the Southern Ocean.</p>

Drivers of intermittent reduction in ocean heat transport into the Getz Ice Shelf cavity

<p><span>Ice shelves in West Antarctica have been thinning during the last decades due to an increased supply of ocean heat that melts the ice from below. The Getz Ice Shelf in the western Amundsen Sea has experienced an inflow of warm water during 2016-2017, but intermittent events of reduced heat content occur during this period. The processes behind the variability of heat transport towards the Antarctic ice shelves on daily to decadal time scales are not well known. <br>Here, we present possible drivers and implications of these events of reduced heat content. We find that they are preceded by strong easterly winds that open up a coastal polynya and depress the cold Winter Water towards the ocean floor. Simultaneously, the ocean current flowing towards the ice shelf veers to the right and aligns with the ice shelf front rather than entering the ice shelf cavity. The heat transport into the ice shelf cavity is consequently reduced by 22% in winter 2016. These events do not occur during winter 2017, possibly due to stronger stratification and weaker winds.</span></p>

Southern Ocean polynyas in CMIP6 models

Polynyas facilitate air-sea fluxes, impacting climate-relevant properties such as sea ice formation and deep water production. Despite their importance, polynyas have been poorly represented in past generations of climate models. Here we present a method to track the presence, frequency and spatial distribution of polynyas in the Southern Ocean in 27 models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and two satellite based sea ice products. Only half of the 27 models form open water polynyas (OWP), and most underestimate their area. As in satellite observations, three models show episodes of high OWP activity separated by decades of no OWPs, while other models unrealistically create OWPs nearly every year. The coastal polynya area in contrast is often overestimated, with the least accurate representations occurring in the models with the coarsest horizontal resolution. We show that the presence or absence of OWPs are linked to changes in the regional hydrography, specifically the linkages between polynya activity with deep water convection and/or the shoaling of the upper water column thermocline. Models with an accurate Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport and wind stress curl have too frequent OWPs. Biases in polynya representation continue to exist in climate models, which has an impact on the regional ocean circulation and ventilation that require to be addressed. However, emerging iceberg discharge schemes, vertical discretisation or overflow parameterisation, are anticipated to improve polynya representations and associated climate prediction in the future.

The Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Surface Conditions during Katabatic Wind Events over the Terra Nova Bay Polynya

Off the coast of Victoria Land, Antarctica an area of open water—the Terra Nova Bay Polynya (TNBP)—persists throughout the austral winter. The development of this coastal polynya is driven by extreme katabatic winds blowing down the slopes of Transantarctic Mountains. The surface-atmosphere coupling and ABL transformation during the katabatic wind events between 18 and 25 September 2012 in Terra Nova Bay are studied, using observations from Aerosonde unmanned aircraft system (UAS), numerical modeling results and Antarctic Weather Station (AWS) measurements. First, we analyze how the persistence and strength of the katabatic winds relate to sea level pressure (SLP) changes in the region throughout the studied period. Secondly, the polynya extent variations are analysed in relation to wind speed changes. We conclude that the intensity of the flow, surface conditions in the bay and regional SLP fluctuations are all interconnected and contribute to polynya development. We also analyse the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) forecast for the studied period and find out that incorrect representation of vertical ABL properties over the TNBP might be caused by overestimated sea ice concentrations (SIC) used as model input. Altogether, this research provides a unique description of TNBP development and its interactions with the atmosphere and katabatic winds.

Investigating the dynamics of an Antarctic coastal polynya using a regional climate model

<p>Coastal polynyas of the Southern Ocean, such as the Mertz Glacier Polynya, are paramount features of the polar climate. They allow for exchanges of heat, momentum and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean where sea ice usually prevents such interactions. Polynyas are believed to have a profound impact on polar and global climate, thanks to their sustained sea ice production and the associated formation of Dense Shelf Waters. Less is known, however, about the impact of polynyas on the atmosphere. Changes in air properties and winds induced by heat and moisture flux could for instance affect precipitation regime over the ice sheet or sea ice. As the formation and evolution of coastal polynyas are tied to the state of the atmosphere, such changes can also induce important feedbacks to polynyas dynamics. Such processes have almost never been studied, whether on the field or with the help of coupled models. Here, we propose to describe the behavior of a coastal polynya and its relationship with the ocean and atmosphere. To do so, we developed a regional coupled model of the ocean, sea ice and atmosphere (including interactive basal melt of ice shelves) and applied it to the Adélie Land area, in East Antarctica. The dynamics of the Mertz Glacier Polynya is described, together with its impact on the atmosphere, sea ice growth, dense water production and ice shelf melt. To assess the importance of potential feedbacks, we compare the dynamics of the polynya from the coupled model to a forced ocean-sea ice model. We then use the regional coupled model to investigate the implications of the Mertz ice tongue calving in early 2010 which led to a drastic decrease of the Mertz Glacier Polynya extent. This experiment aims at investigating the sensitivity of the atmosphere to the activity of the polynya and to evaluate the impact of the calving on regional climate. This work improves the understanding of the Mertz Glacier Polynya dynamics, and of the impact of coastal polynyas on polar climate. It also constitutes an additional step in the modelling of the polar regions in Earth System Models.</p>