Sensitivity Analysis of Hydraulic Transient Simulations Based on the MOC in the Gravity Flow

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of input parameters to output results when using the method of characteristics (MOC) for hydraulic transient simulations. Based on a gravity flow water delivery project, we selected six main parameters that affect the hydraulic transient simulation and selected maximum pressure as the output parameter in order to perform a parameter sensitivity analysis. The Morris sensitivity analysis (Morris) and the partial rank correlation coefficient method based on Latin hypercube sampling (LHS-PRCC) were both adopted. The results show that the sensitivity of each parameter is the same except for the friction factor. The flow rate and Young’s modulus are positively correlated with the maximum pressure, whereas the pipe diameter, valve closing time, and wall thickness are negatively correlated. It is discussed that the variability of the friction factor comes from the function of the flow and pressure regulating valve. When other conditions of the gravity flow project remain unchanged, the maximum pressure increases with the increase in the friction factor. The flow rate, pipe diameter, and valve closing time are the key parameters that affect the model. Meanwhile, Morris and LHS-PRCC proved to be effective methods for evaluating parameter sensitivity in hydraulic transient simulations.