Simple Hurricane Model: Asymmetry and Dynamics

In recent decades, the development of several products and hurricane-related models has attempted to predict the dynamic conditions of these systems and regions beyond they can impact. Thus, this article presents a parametric model to describe wind asymmetry in these systems. For this, the analysis of this model was applied in Hurricane Ike, which occurred in September 2008. In this model, the tangential wind field above the boundary layer was considered in balance with the thermal wind. It was possible to identify that as Hurricane Ike evolves, tangential velocity also evolves. Thus, there was a change in static, baroclinic, and inertial stability. An exponential radial reduction was included for maximum speed, and, therefore, the maximum winds always to the right of the hurricane displacement were identified. In addition, pumping near the surface had an influx into this system induced caused by drag between the air and the surface.

Comparing Primary Health-Care Service Delivery Disruptions Across Disasters

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare primary care appointment disruptions around Hurricanes Ike (2008) and Harvey (2017) and identify patterns that indicate differing continuity of primary care or care systems across events. Methods: Primary care appointment records covering 5 wk before and after each storm were identified for Veterans Health Affairs (VA) facilities in the greater Houston and surrounding areas and a comparison group of VA facilities located elsewhere. Appointment disposition percentages were compared within and across storm events to assess care disruptions. Results: For Hurricane Harvey, 14% of primary care appointments were completed during the week of landfall (vs 33% for Hurricane Ike and 69% in comparison clinics), and 49% were completed the following week (vs 58% for Hurricane Ike and 71% for comparison clinics). By the second week after Hurricane Ike and third week after Harvey, the scheduled appointment completion percentage returned to prestorm levels of approximately 60%. Conclusions: There were greater and more persistent care disruptions for Hurricane Harvey relative to Hurricane Ike. As catastrophic emergencies including major natural disasters and infectious disease pandemics become a more recognized threat to primary and preventive care delivery, health-care systems should consider implementing strategies to monitor and ensure primary care appointment continuity.

Applications of Radar Data Assimilation with Hydrometeor Control Variables within the WRFDA on the Prediction of Landfalling Hurricane IKE (2008)

The impact of assimilating radar radial velocity and reflectivity on the analyses and forecast of Hurricane IKE is investigated within the framework of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system, including the hydrometeor control variables. Hurricane IKE in the year 2008 was chosen as the study case. It was found that assimilating radar data is able to effectively improve the small-scale information of the hurricane vortex area in the model background. Radar data assimilation experiments yield significant cyclonic wind increments in the inner-core area of the hurricane, enhancing the intensity of the hurricane in the model background. On the other hand, by extending the traditional control variables to include the hydrometeor control variables, the assimilation of radar reflectivity can effectively adjust the water vapor and hydrometeors of the background, further improving the track and intensity forecast of the hurricane. The precipitation forecast skill is also enhanced to some extent with the radar data assimilation, especially with the extended hydrometeor control variables.

Adjustments of Socially Vulnerable Populations in Galveston County, Texas USA Following Hurricane Ike

The role of socio-demographic vulnerability to hazards is an increasingly important aspect for consideration in disaster mitigation and adaptation. This paper examines the spatial adjustments of populations to the 2008 Hurricane Ike by estimating the effects of damage on the changes of socially vulnerable populations pre- and post-Hurricane Ike. Multivariate regression models are used to understand household-level adjustments in different flood zones and inundation levels at the block-group level in Galveston county. In contrast to past literature that suggests that vulnerable populations remain or move into hazardous areas post-disaster, our results indicate that socially vulnerable populations have moved out of highly damaged areas. The tremendous investment opportunity post-disaster and the slow distribution of funds to recover public housing on Galveston Island provide potential explanation of the estimated adjustment patterns. Analyzing post disaster adjustments offers important insights into the “resilient” recovery of Galveston County post-Hurricane Ike. Our results also point to potential vulnerabilities that may arise in the future because of the change in community identity and the loss of social memory. Understanding disaster-driven changes in community make-up will help inform potential recovery trajectories from future catastrophes.

The Utilization of Regression and Analysis of Variance to Model Hurricane Storm Surge Sedimentation on Coastal Marshes along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coastline

<p>Coastal marshes along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline provide very important ecosystem services such as serving as habitat for a variety of flora and fauna and providing flood protection for inland areas. A growing body of research has documented how hurricane storm surge sedimentation has increased the elevation of coastal marshes along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline. This study investigates spatial variations in sediment distribution on McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge, Texas, USA, which is in the geographic region that was impacted by the right-front quadrant of Hurricane Ike. This research builds upon a prior study on hurricane storm surge sedimentation in which the sediment deposits from hurricanes’ Audrey, Carla, Rita, and Ike were identified on a marsh transect on McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge. The purpose of this study was to discover how hurricane storm surge sedimentation spatially varies in relation to the landfall location of Hurricane Ike. Fieldwork conducted in 2017-2018 involved digging shallow pits on four coastal marsh transects between Sabine Pass, Texas and High Island, Texas. Elevations were measured at each pit site along all four transects using a telescopic lens and stadia rod. The transects extend 880-1630 meters, with pit sites beginning near the coastline and extending landward. Results obtained in the field indicate that the Hurricane Ike sediment deposit has been found on all four transects, and that the deposit decreases in thickness moving landward along each transect. Furthermore, the observational results of this study were used in Regression Analyses to model hurricane storm surge sediment deposit thickness based on pit site distance inland, pit site elevation, and distance from the landfall of Hurricane Ike. Moreover, Analysis of Variance revealed whether distance inland, distance from landfall location, and the interaction between distance inland and distance from landfall location had any significant effect on storm surge deposit thickness. Actual sediment deposit thicknesses measured in the field were compared to the Regression and Analysis of Variance results. Results show that the Power Law Curve from the Regression Analyses was the most robust predictor of pit site sediment thickness based on distance inland, with an R<sup>2</sup> value of 0.538. Additionally, the Regression and Analysis of Variance results revealed that transect distance from the landfall location of Hurricane Ike was the only independent variable that could not predict or explain storm surge deposit thickness; which is very likely due to all four transects being in the right-front quadrant of landfalling Hurricane Ike. The findings of this study provide improved understanding of the spatial relationship between storm surge sedimentation and storm surge heights, valuable knowledge about the sedimentary response of coastal marshes subject to storm surge deposition, and useful guidance to public policy aimed at combating the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline.</p><p> </p>

Monte Carlo Simulations of Coupled Transient Seepage Flow and Soil Deformation in Levees

The purpose of this research is to compare the results from two different computer programs of flow analysesof two levees at Port Arthur, Texas where rising water of a flood from Hurricane Ike occurred on the levees. The first program (Program 1) is a two-dimensional (2-D) transient finite element program that couples the conservation of mass flow equation with accompanying hydraulic boundary conditions with the conservation of force equations with accompanying x and y displacement and force boundary conditions, thus yielding total head, x displacement, and y displacement as unknowns at each finite element node. The second program (Program 2) is a 2-D transient finite element program that considers only the conservation of mass flowequation with its accompanying hydraulic boundary conditions, yielding only total head as the unknown at each finite element node. Compressive stresses can be computed at the centroid of each finite element when using the coupled program. Programs 1 and 2 were parallelized for high performance computing to consider thousands of realisations of the material properties. Since a single realisation requires as much as one hour of computer time for certain levees, the large realisation computation is made possible by utilising HPC. This Monte Carlo type analysis was used to compute the probability of unsatisfactory performance for under seepage, through seepage, and uplift for the two levees. Respective hydrographs from the flood resulting from Hurricane Ike were applied to each levee. When comparing the computations from the two programs, the most significant result was the two programs yielded significantly different values in the computed results in the two clay levees considered in this research.