Testing for exuberance in house prices using data sampled at different frequencies

We undertake Monte Carlo simulation experiments to examine the effect of changing the frequency of observations and the data span on the Phillips, P. C. B., S. Shi, and J. Yu. 2015. “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500.” International Economic Review 56 (4): 1043–78 generalised supremum ADF (GSADF) test for explosive behaviour via Monte Carlo simulations. We find that when a series is characterised by multiple bubbles (periodically collapsing), decreasing the frequency of observations is associated with profound power losses for the test. We illustrate the effects of temporal aggregation by examining two real house price data bases, namely the S&P Case–Shiller real house prices and the international real house price indices available at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

More Reliable Land Price Index: Is There a Slope Effect?

This paper focuses on the physical attributes of land that intrinsically limit land use and possibly affect land values. In particular, we investigate if the slope of a land does decrease its price and investigate the role of land slope in forming more reliable constant-quality land price indices and aggregate house price indices. We find that, while land slopes do decrease the land price per unit, they have a small effect on the quality-adjusted land price indices in selected neighborhoods in Auckland, New Zealand, where sloped terrain is common.

Measuring the price of Australian water

The Murray-Darling Basin is Australia’s largest river system spanning over a million square kilometres and supporting annual agricultural production in excess of $A24 billion. The market for trading in water entitlements linked to this resource seeks to ensure that water flows to its highest value use. The quality of the data produced for these markets is of paramount importance to all participants, whether it be irrigators assessing whether the price offered for their entitlement is fair or a water authority attempting to determine the impact of their intervention through buyback activity. In this paper, we highlight the problem of using median prices when reporting aggregate price levels. We demonstrate that a median-based price index reflects changes in the composition of entitlement sales each month in addition to any general change in aggregate prices. We employ the repeat-sales technique, historically used to construct house price indices, in the novel setting of water entitlement trading to overcome this distortion. JEL Classification: Q25, G10

Is There a Slope Discount?

This paper focuses on the physical attributes of land that intrinsically limit land use and possibly affect land values. In particular, we investigate if the slope of a land does decrease its price and investigate the role of land slope in forming more reliable constant-quality land price indices and aggregate house price indices. We find that, while land slopes do decrease the land price per unit, they have a small effect on the quality-adjusted land price indices in selected neighborhoods in Auckland, New Zealand, where sloped terrain is common.

An investigation of the synchronization in global house prices

Purpose The purpose of this paper to provide a discussion of the empirical evidence and contributing factors of the synchronization of house prices globally. Design/methodology/approach The author reviewed the main studies on house price synchronization and conducted an empirical analysis using OECD house price indices. A discussion of the contributing factors of synchronization, with a focus on the demand and supply dimensions is provided, and synchronization across both countries and cities is examined. Findings Housing markets globally have become more synchronized; this is particularly clear for cities. The sustained demand for places that are attractive for financial motives and for lifestyle and sometimes climate along with the fact that such places tend to be supply-constrained is likely to lead to more synchronization across markets. Practical implications The conclusions are important for investors seeking to diversify their housing holdings internationally. The discussion should also benefit policy-makers. Originality/value To date, very scarce evidence exists on the synchronization of house prices globally. By surveying the results contained in previous studies and providing a thorough discussion of the possible drivers of house price synchronization, this study contributes to a better understanding of this important topic.

A RE-ASSESSMENT OF HOUSE PRICE INDICES: EVIDENCE FROM THE SPANISH MARKET

This paper using evidence from the Spanish housing market contributes significantly to the debate concerning the different results obtained from house price indices depending on the method used to build the index. Utilising a large database over the period 1994 to 2012, the paper constructs a time dummy hedonic index (HD) and an imputed hedonic index using a Laspeyres approach (HI), and compares the different effect on the price index evolution. The paper discusses control by quality changes and identifies those attributes experiencing structural changes over the analysis period, identified by the HI index but not by the HD index. Results indicate that changes in quality stem from socio-demographic conditions rather than changes to housing quality (other than size). The paper also shows that improvements in neighbourhood quality rather than change in a ‘typical house’ affects house price and argues that these considerations are important in both the method selected to calculate house price indices and the application of the methodology to estimate price changes.