Nigeria Eurobonds will ease short-term budget pressure

Significance This comes a month after the National Assembly approved an external borrowing plan of USD6.2bn in August. Also, the IMF has approved the allocation of USD3.35bn in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to boost Nigeria’s foreign reserves. Combined, these have provided a modest boost to Nigeria’s faltering foreign-exchange reserves. Impacts The proceeds from the Eurobonds sale will form a significant part of funding the 2022 budget. The Eurobonds and SDR allocation, by boosting reserves, could help narrow the gap between formal and informal exchange rates. There will likely be another Eurobond sale in 2022 as well as more multilateral and bilateral loans. Nigeria’s weak tax collection infrastructure will not generate substantially improved revenues from expected growth.

Nigeria forex restrictions are unsustainable

Significance Instead it ordered that all foreign exchange purchases should occur through commercial banks. This move aims to stabilise the value of the naira by reducing effective domestic demand for foreign currency. Impacts The CBN may allow commercial banks to provide forex to retail dealers as an alternative policy. The cost of imported goods and services will increase. A USD3.35bn IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation will bolster Nigeria’s short-term reserve position. Full exchange rate unification will not occur under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

Sri Lanka will try to manage debt without IMF help

Significance The government nevertheless remains under pressure from domestic critics and external stakeholders because of dwindling foreign exchange (forex) reserves and a growing debt crisis. Sri Lanka approached the IMF in early 2020 for macroeconomic support under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument, but negotiations were shelved. Impacts The government will face increasing domestic pushback over its efforts to curb capital outflows. Although India and China will remain Sri Lanka’s most important partners, ties with Bangladesh will grow markedly. Sri Lanka should be able to access an allocation of IMF special drawing rights later this month.

Developing economies will struggle to rebound solidly

Significance Although the Fund upgraded its forecast for global growth this year to 6%, the recovery is becoming more uneven. Decisions were taken on global corporate tax, extended debt relief for developing states and a large disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Whether these measures are wide or deep enough to support lower-income countries is debatable. Impacts Led by the United States, support for corporate tax reform is rising, but benefits will not come soon enough for fiscally distressed states. The firm global recovery relies on China’s GDP gaining more than 8% and India’s more than 10%; India faces greater immediate downside risks. The economic outlook is brighter for developing nations with robust public finances and limited tourism reliance where COVID-19 is in check. COVAX delivery timings may be optimistic, and the WTO is unlikely to waive intellectual property rights to production capability transfers.

Hesitancy to share vaccine IP will increase inequality

Significance Although eight vaccines have been developed and approved for use against COVID-19, production constraints leave many lower-income countries facing a lengthy wait. They are backing an initiative to waive intellectual property (IP) rights on treatments to facilitate transfers of vaccine manufacturing capability. Impacts Low-income nations may opt to issue compulsory licences, allowing governments to waive IP rights without the licence owners’ consent. The IMF backed a USD650bn round of special drawing rights at the spring meeting, in part to help vaccinate developing nation populations. A YouGov poll recently found that 74% of the UK public think governments should ensure vaccine expertise is shared globally.

Review of The Method of Valuation of The SDR—Proposed Extension of The Valuation Of The SDR Basket and Modification of The Date Of Effect of A New Basket

On March 5, 2021, the IMF’s Executive Board approved an extension of the current Special Drawing Right (SDR) valuation basket by ten months from September 30, 2021 to July 31, 2022. The IMF normally reviews the composition and valuation of the SDR basket every five years. The extension effectively resets the five-yearly cycle of SDR valuation reviews, with the next review to be completed by mid-2022 and the new basket becoming effective on August 1, 2022. The ten-month extension contributes to the Fund’s ongoing efforts to prioritize work during the COVID-19 crisis and allows for a more suitable effectiveness date of the new basket, which does not coincide with some major markets being closed. The approved extension, as well as effectiveness date of a new basket, is intended to facilitate the continued smooth functioning of SDR-related operations.

The G7 is edging closer to a new round of SDRs

Significance The COVID-19 crisis has exposed the disparity in fiscal and monetary firepower between developed and developing economies. Within the G7, support is growing for a new allocation of IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) -- international reserves that can be swapped for hard currency -- now that the US leadership is better disposed to multilateral action. Impacts The US Congress must approve an SDR round over USD685bn; a smaller issue is likely as many Republicans oppose financing Iran and China. The G20’s moratorium on developing nations debt servicing payments is set to be extended beyond June, but vast payment gaps still remain. The rising US yield curve and dollar rally will pressure emerging market borrowers by raising their dollar-denominated debt repayments.