Replacement Analysis of Mutually Exclusive Projects of Unequal Lives Using Kelly Specific Real Option Criterion

This paper presents a model to address the uncertainty inherent in replacement problems, whereby a firm must select between mutually exclusive projects of unequal lifespans by applying the Kelly criterion (which is not well known to the engineering economics community) within a binomial lattice option-pricing environment. Assuming that only the interest rate, among many factors, is uncertain, Brown and Davis performed an economic analysis of this problem by employing a real option-pricing method and argued that their model yields results opposite to those yielded by the traditional approach. However, the results yielded by the model proposed herein are consistent with those by the traditional approach, unlike Brown and Davis’s model. The conclusion is that since the investment time horizon is infinite, a firm rationale pertaining to the selection of the best method for the investment problem of such types does not exist.

Near Exact Calculation of American Options

A new practical approach for the analysis of American (bond) options is developed which is a combination of the closed form solutions and binomial lattice models. The model is calibrated to the observed term structure of rates and traded volatilities and is arbitrage free. The convergence is very fast, but numerically intensive. By extrapolation the near exact premium of an American (bond) option can be calculated.

The Option Value of Refracturing Oil Wells: Implementation in a Binomial Lattice

Summary The steep production decline of unconventional oil wells means that positive cash flows only last for a short while. The operator must then decide whether to continue, abandon, or hydraulically refracture the well. The decision of when to refracture the reservoir has an economic effect on the value of a well, especially with the uncertain oil prices of the future. In this paper, we develop a flexible Markov-decision process that assumes that the optimal refracture or abandonment time depends on the stochastic mean-reverting behavior of prices (described in a binomial lattice) and the then-current level of production. The Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) implementation of the algorithm accompanies this paper.

THE BINOMIAL INTERPOLATED LATTICE METHOD FOR STEP DOUBLE BARRIER OPTIONS

We consider the problem of pricing step double barrier options with binomial lattice methods. We introduce an algorithm, based on interpolation techniques, that is robust and efficient, that treats the "near barrier" problem for double barrier options and permits the valuation of step double barrier options with American features. We provide a complete convergence analysis of the proposed lattice algorithm in the European case.

REAL OPTIONS APPROACH: A BANK ACQUISITION BY BANK X

Indonesia offers a lot of promising growth opportunities and particularly to the banking industry, a combination of attractive macro-economic conditions and introduction of new regulatory policies as well as reformation to consolidate and strengthen the banking sector primarily by M&A activity provides an attractive backdrop for acquisition of Indonesian banks by foreign investors. In this paper, we introduce real options theory as an alternative to a traditional project valuation for a bank acquisition that would allow the acquiring firm to recognize the options embedded in their investments. The objective of this case study is to analyze, from real options perspective, whether the acquisitions of the target firm compliment the acquiring firm. The methods use for the analysis are DCF, Black-Scholes and Binomial Lattice that would help determine the project real value, which result suggested that the acquiring firm should reconsider their options. On this thesis, the DCF method suggesting that the acquisition of Bank Y by Bank X does increase the value of Bank X but there would not be added value on the synergy itself. While from the real options perspective, the project value (with and without real options flexibility) is worth less than the target firm underlying assets and has doubtful prospect.